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Are We Set For A Recovery In House Prices?

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If you read the articule, they give the case and let you make your own mind up, e.g. No we are not set for a recovery.

The most bearish quote is.

Capital Economics, a consultancy, is even more pessimistic: it is sticking to its forecast that prices will drop 7% this year and a total of 20% over three years. Ed Stansfield, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “With the economy slowing and property still overvalued, we believe further price falls this year, next year and beyond remain likely.”

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I think like Dr Bubb says - there will be rallies on the way down - then it will be US that will be looking at Y-O-Y figures....

I wont be surprised if for one month or two prices stagnate or rise a little, but overall I think we are heading down.

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Near me there is a block of 8 new build flats I have mentioned often on here.

They were finished nearly 18 months ago.

A long time ago the big sign outside changed from '8 super duper flats' - the 8 was crossed out and changed to 3 - implication - 5 have sold.

Also, there was a sign up for the last year 'Last ground floor apartment available'.

Now the big sign has gone down - they're all sold I suppose. But are they?

Looking at nethouseprices.com only 3 have sold.

One at 265k in June 2004, one at 235k in Oct 2004 and 1 at 215k in Feb 05.

I wonder if the developer has given up trying to sell - there are numerous To Let signs outside now.

I presume the one that was sold for 265k was bought by a BTLetter because last Autumn there was one to rent in the local rags for £1000 a month. To my way of thinking 1k a month would not cover a 85% BTL mortgage and, as far as I can see, the bloke has lost 50k on his investment so far.

No wonder they have only sold 3. Wonder if the bank is in the process or taking over the others.

For 1k a month I rent a rather nice 4 bed, 3 bath house nearby with granite worktops in the kitchen and very fancy en-suites.

Funny old world.

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I think like Dr Bubb says - there will be rallies on the way down - then it will be US that will be looking at Y-O-Y figures....

I wont be surprised if for one month or two prices stagnate or rise a little, but overall I think we are heading down.

The equivilant of jumping in an lift (elevator), your still going down as you go up.

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like Dr Bubb says - there will be rallies on the way down

To what extent does the housing market really 'rally' as such? It's not any where near as quickly responsive as the stock market, surely the figures just get massaged in?

Any examples from the previous crash?

I recall someone crying foul over our prices chart on the home page, which apparently should show a 2% micro sized dip followed by a recovery. I don't see many other 'jaggies' !

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This is one of the most scurrilous pieces I have ever seen, even for the Times.

Pause one moment and look at the quotes. The main body of quotes comes from an "economist" attached to a well known vested interest. RICS is riddled with vested interests.

The entire article has about as much weight as saying, after a Sarahan drought, whilst surrounded by sand, cacti and the odd lizard:

"Desert is dry....but could this become Northern Wales by next week?"

The VI press is well know for this sort of thing, but I have never seen it so outrageously done before.

The method is easy: Take any disaster, then speculate that it is not a disaster after all.....even though you are SURROUNDED by disaster.

The Times is getting desperate. I hope all the journalists who are currently contributing to this kind of thing are noted.

Just to remind you of the author it is:

Kathryn Cooper

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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