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Will Nationwide Yoy Go Negative This Month

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OK, last month was 0.2% up bringing the YoY down to 2.6%.

What figure this month would take the YoY negative?? I assume you need to minus off a 1/12 of the % for last August which is just about to disappear from the figures??

Any ideas??

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I wouldn't hold your breath.

The Nationwide UK figure was £153,743 for August 2004 and £158,348 at the end of July 2005.

It needs to fall by more than 2.91% in August to go negative (compared with -0.36% last August). It could happen but I doubt it.

The Sept 2004 (and Nov 2004) figures were much the same - so a similar fall by the end of September/November would see YoY negative.

The data is here:

Nationwide UK Monthly Data

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April 2006 would be my guess.

I concur with that. Once that last big monthly jump (March-Apr 2005) works its way out of the yoy figures, it will be -ve all the way though, I think. Negative annual HPI should see a lot of speculators start to get very twitchy!! :D

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I think it will be pretty damn close to going negative!!

you never can tell with their fiddled adjustments but I still think a sizeable decline in YOY(to something like 0.7%)is on the cards,

...and you can forget about an autumn bounce,people will be gearing up for christmas and having to save for presents this year rather than whacking it on the mortgage like before.

...but the money that gets saved doesn't get spent somewhere else,so there will be more grief on the high-street to come.

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