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Prop. In Sydney

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Update from OZ...

property in aussie is very toppy

perth is running like crazy though driven by the mining boom

sydney is dead

and melbourne is worse

(says a friend who just moved back there)

Is it the time for bargains? I wonder how many years it'll be falling.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Definitely the time for bargains in Oz. FTB's coming back in droves - at least! But that is not making prices rise. The UK is in denial and I have posted more than once asking why is the UK immune when this is happening in other western economies?? Here is an example, I bought house in NSW in 2003 - tried to sell in 2005 - could not even get an offer near what I paid in 03. It is sooooooo bad over there. You just don't realise unless you are trying to sell a house. For months they were saying soft landing, stagnation, correction blah blah blah. Looks like they've had to fess up! Chugga, chugga, chugga, chugga, choo, choo - here comes the UK train and it aint full o gravy!

Is it the time for bargains? I wonder how many years it'll be falling.

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Definitely the time for bargains in Oz. FTB's coming back in droves - at least! But that is not making prices rise. The UK is in denial and I have posted more than once asking why is the UK immune when this is happening in other western economies?? Here is an example, I bought house in NSW in 2003 - tried to sell in 2005 - could not even get an offer near what I paid in 03. It is sooooooo bad over there. You just don't realise unless you are trying to sell a house. For months they were saying soft landing, stagnation, correction blah blah blah. Looks like they've had to fess up! Chugga, chugga, chugga, chugga, choo, choo - here comes the UK train and it aint full o gravy!

I've heard Sydney is getting badly hammered.

Do you have any details of price falls?

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Guest Winners and Losers

20% easily, and taken ages to sell to boot. Interestingly though, the $1m + bracket was still healthier for a while. I have heard this in the UK too.

I've heard Sydney is getting badly hammered.

Do you have any details of price falls?

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The stamp duty in Oz is ridiculous - 5.5% in Victoria alone

Rather than people buying a bigger house they just extend upwards or outwards, which isnt too hard when the houses are woodframed. If you want an extra room and you are trading up from a $500k to a $600K house to get it, its going to cost you $32k in tax for an additional $100k added to your mortgage. You could pay a builder to do it for $75k, so why move.

Friend who is an estate agent in Rowville (McMansionville) says the isnt much buyer interest at all

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Update from OZ...

property in aussie is very toppy

perth is running like crazy though driven by the mining boom

Perth is being driven by positive migration from O/S and Eastern States.

Property and land stocks are low, also rental availability.

Wages are on the rise.

West Australian report last week - expect rents to rise a lot this year

Median price is still well below Sydney.

Question is when will it hit the top?

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Guest Winners and Losers

Eventually - can compare to Scotland & England. Boom started later in Perth, so will bust.

Perth is being driven by positive migration from O/S and Eastern States.

Property and land stocks are low, also rental availability.

Wages are on the rise.

West Australian report last week - expect rents to rise a lot this year

Median price is still well below Sydney.

Question is when will it hit the top?

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Eventually - can compare to Scotland & England. Boom started later in Perth, so will bust.

As it always does. Perth always lags the cycle by a couple of years.

And will always lag eastern states prices. Anyone who thinks Perth prices will catch up to Sydney (which there are plenty, always have been) has rocks in their head. It won't happen folks.

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Sydney_House_Price_Jan_2006.bmp

Sydney tends to lead the Australian market, a point which is reasonably well accepted even by the VI's. As the attached graph, itself from a VI (Commonwealth Bank), shows Sydney prices are clearly trending down.

The New South Wales state economy is on the edge of recession - it's down to technicalities really. Unemployment is just starting to rise slightly in Australia and even the government publicly admits that we've likely seen the lows in unemployment. Also notable is that only one state, Tasmania which tends to lag the other states economically despite being somewhat radical in other respects, is still achieving the magic 4% economic growth. Everywhere else, even the big mining states of Western Australia and Queensland are achieving modest growth only.

It should be noted that the economy in Tasmania is somewhat artificially boosted by several one-off energy related projects including wind farms, electricity transmission upgrades and a major natural gas infrastructure project. Also this is the seasonal peak in the tourism industry which is a major employer in Tasmania. Take those out and not one single Australian state would be achieving decent growth.

I've looked through plenty of state, city and local charts on the Commonwealth Bank site. The point which really stands out is that a large number of them show a marked slide in January just as the real estate industry has been boasting about rising transaction volumes. Rising volume, falling price... here goes!

Sydney_House_Price_Jan_2006.bmp

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As it always does. Perth always lags the cycle by a couple of years.

And will always lag eastern states prices. Anyone who thinks Perth prices will catch up to Sydney (which there are plenty, always have been) has rocks in their head. It won't happen folks.

But could it catch Canberra?

" The median price of a Perth house is now $363,000, behind only Sydney ($518,000) and Canberra ($409,500)."

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,1...550-462,00.html

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Sydney prices peaked in December 2003 and have since fallen 9.7 per cent.

Sydney prices fell 1.2 per cent in the three months to March and 3.1 per cent in the year.

The NSW executive director of the Housing Industry Association, Wayne Gersbach, said Sydney's housing market was under "immense pressure" - but it could be worse. "The only thing stopping house prices falling precipitously is that people are not building new ones," he said.

Mr Gersbach said NSW was building only 33,000 homes a year, compared with a historical average of 45,000. He predicted construction would fall further next year.

Economists remain concerned about the state's health. "I reckon the Sydney economy, if not NSW, must be flirting with a recession," said the chief economist at Challenger Financial Group, Ron Woods.

What happened to all the boys on the Somersoft forum saying it was different this time and that prices would keep rising forever?

I think TTRTR was one of those people...

Edited by BandWagon

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As it always does. Perth always lags the cycle by a couple of years.

And will always lag eastern states prices. Anyone who thinks Perth prices will catch up to Sydney (which there are plenty, always have been) has rocks in their head. It won't happen folks.

Perth median now around $400,000

Dont know what will trigger a turnaround at the moment .

Unafordability you would think, but they are still selling like hotcakes.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200608/s1723834.htm

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Perth median now around $400,000

Dont know what will trigger a turnaround at the moment .

Unafordability you would think, but they are still selling like hotcakes.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200608/s1723834.htm

Perth is in mining region. There is still huge demand on commodities so generally region is booming - ad house prices as well.

But the trigger is coming - and it is global recession/depression.

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Perth is in mining region. There is still huge demand on commodities so generally region is booming - ad house prices as well.

But the trigger is coming - and it is global recession/depression.

Our biggest market is Japan.

Arn't they just coming out of recession?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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