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Definition Of A 'soft Landing'?

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So like a good bear I threw a jar of honey in the air, I hoped to achieve a 'soft landing' for said jar, when dropped from about 1ft or less I achieved a mild thump but amazingly the higher I threw it the harder the landing.

If I strapped the jar to a rocket and blasted it so high it takes an eternity to return to earth... is this a soft landing?

Has a bubble ever had a soft landing, or is not a bubble if it doesn't land hard, basically where is this elusive 'soft landing', has it ever happend? Or is it just the name for the intervening period between the downtrend and the big fall where clever people can see it a mile off and calm the troops whilst they hoplessly bail out?

Wishful thinking indeed.

nasdaq-2000.gif

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Has a bubble ever had a soft landing, or is not a bubble if it doesn't land hard, basically where is this elusive 'soft landing', has it ever happend?

Dutch house prices, a recent and extremely relevant example.

They had a boom from 1995 to 2000, with over 20% annual growth in house prices in 2000. From then, the rate of growth declined sharply, but never quite went negative.

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Dutch house prices, a recent and extremely relevant example.

They had a boom from 1995 to 2000, with over 20% annual growth in house prices in 2000. From then, the rate of growth declined sharply, but never quite went negative.

Interesting, one assumes the fact the Holland has so little buildable land left that isn't developed keeps a sort of resistence in the market? Of course if the Dutch market isn't keeping pace with inflation it's still a fall.

Our planning policy copies that of De Beers, keeping the illusion of scarcity.

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Interesting, one assumes the fact the Holland has so little buildable land left that isn't developed keeps a sort of resistence in the market? Of course if the Dutch market isn't keeping pace with inflation it's still a fall.

Our planning policy copies that of De Beers, keeping the illusion of scarcity.

I'm pretty sure most people would consider a soft landing to be a situation where nominal prices don't fall. As long as there is no negative equity its a soft landing, regardless of the fact that real values are eroded.

Its a bit like the ground mysteriously rising to catch your jar of honey when it reaches its maximum height on the throw.

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I'm pretty sure most people would consider a soft landing to be a situation where nominal prices don't fall. As long as there is no negative equity its a soft landing, regardless of the fact that real values are eroded.

Its a bit like the ground mysteriously rising to catch your jar of honey when it reaches its maximum height on the throw.

This implies we have a great bout of (hyper?) inflation to erode all that debt, the problem is this isn't the 70's and the pound would crumble and people would demand higher wage settlements which would drive jobs overseas in the private sector and drive Gordon Brown into unsustainable deficits in the public sector, funded by stupid bond rates.

Would inflation just be putting off the day? Interest rates would have to rise at some point and then harshly is left unchecked.

Has any equivalent sized economy in the past managed to work off £1.1t of private debt, combined with lots of govt debt and off balance sheet private/PFI debt? Seems completely unchartered, the bubble of 1929 was only 50% of GDP the housing bubble is ~105%.

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This implies we have a great bout of (hyper?) inflation to erode all that debt, the problem is this isn't the 70's and the pound would crumble and people would demand higher wage settlements which would drive jobs overseas in the private sector and drive Gordon Brown into unsustainable deficits in the public sector, funded by stupid bond rates.

Would inflation just be putting off the day? Interest rates would have to rise at some point and then harshly is left unchecked.

Has any equivalent sized economy in the past managed to work off £1.1t of private debt, combined with lots of govt debt and off balance sheet private/PFI debt? Seems completely unchartered, the bubble of 1929 was only 50% of GDP the housing bubble is ~105%.

The argument for stagnation (i.e. soft landing) is that prices will not rise for the next 8 years. This will mean that houses, now 30% overvalued, will be at the same value in 8 years of no increases as they would have been if we didn't have a boom. This is based on the assumption of a long-run HPI of 5% per annum.

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So like a good bear I threw a jar of honey in the air, I hoped to achieve a 'soft landing' for said jar, when dropped from about 1ft or less I achieved a mild thump but amazingly the higher I threw it the harder the landing.

If I strapped the jar to a rocket and blasted it so high it takes an eternity to return to earth... is this a soft landing?

Has a bubble ever had a soft landing, or is not a bubble if it doesn't land hard, basically where is this elusive 'soft landing', has it ever happend? Or is it just the name for the intervening period between the downtrend and the big fall where clever people can see it a mile off and calm the troops whilst they hoplessly bail out?

Wishful thinking indeed.

nasdaq-2000.gif

If the bubble was really a balloon ful of water. What then? (sorry I've had a few glasses of wine) The higher the climb the more likely it will burst, than bounce. :lol:

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It is.  (At least with official inflation figures.)

Edited:  Rushed to post, but official inflation is being massively understated by govt. figures (they have a vested interest in underpaying pensioners, etc.).  See shadow statistics.  http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/  It's for the US but the same sleights of hand are used here in the UK.

Actually, maybe HPI isn't so huge if you look at true inflation.  It's as much a case of money deteriorating as houses rising in 'value' (NOT), as central banks spray the world with their 'liquidity'.

If inflation is higher than reported, we'll only need a few years of stagnation to see real price drops of 30%. London has been fairly stagnant for at least a year, maybe more. So real house prices are cheaper now than last year, by at least the rate of inflation (whatever that may actually be - 5%, or more?).

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I listened to a tape of this guy robert precther in 2003. He predicted the bull run of the ninties in the 70's. And I believe he created the Elliot Wave theory in share trading.

He has a gloomy picture of the future on par with 1929.

This has a part 1,2 and 3 (in part 2 I think a graph of the tulip crash in 1600s for fans of that crash)

http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/qtcinterviewp1.htm

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptio...rechter2003.htm

He was thought predicting ths to start in late 2004. I think best bet to watch the States. He said with future bancrupcies even worse than 1929 luxury property will be going for peanuts. Best read for yourselves . Something to think about. Best also check if your cash is safe wherever it is.

This I would say would be the worse scenario. Predicting theDow to fall to 1000 presently at 10000 ?

If there is a hugh spectacular crash in the States in regards to property, shares, jobs etc how would it affect the UK ????

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If inflation is higher than reported, we'll only need a few years of stagnation to see real price drops of 30%. London has been fairly stagnant for at least a year, maybe more. So real house prices are cheaper now than last year, by at least the rate of inflation (whatever that may actually be - 5%, or more?).

doesnt help my savings though does it!!!??? :angry: :angry:

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Its a bit like the ground mysteriously rising to catch your jar of honey when it reaches its maximum height on the throw.

I like your little experiment,the theory behind it is sound,but you need to take into account what type of ground the jar is landing on.

if it was to land in a pile of freshly produced excrement,then the landing would indeed be "soft".

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Its a bit like the ground mysteriously rising to catch your jar of honey when it reaches its maximum height on the throw.

I like your little experiment,the theory behind it is sound,but you need to take into account what type of ground the jar is landing on.

if it was to land in a pile of freshly produced excrement,then the landing would indeed be "soft".

If all that is required for a soft landing is a pile of freshy produced excrement, then we're heading for a soft landing.

/G

Edited by backtoparents

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The definition of a "soft landing" will constantly change to suit the needs to the VIs. They predicted a soft landing and that is what we will get. The problem is that a soft landing will be regarded as a "legitimate and anticipated softening from their strong position to their normal stable and positive position" (intepreted as 35% collapse).

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The definition of a "soft landing" will constantly change to suit the needs to the VIs.  They predicted a soft landing and that is what we will get.

I think that the phrase implies that nominal prices will not fall, or fall by very little accordiing to the main house price indices from the Nationwide.

But the whole thing with a "soft landing" is that it depends on what time period you're talking about.

The VIs have never defined that, so it's open to a "never ending" interpretation.

They'll say "the market is having a soft landing" or the "the market will have a soft landing", but they never quite say that the soft-landing has happened.

Surely even they know that house prices are in fantasy land right now, and so the concept of a "soft landing" is just a ploy to get the last remaining saps to buy before the inevitable house price crash.

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The definition of a "soft landing" will constantly change to suit the needs to the VIs.  They predicted a soft landing and that is what we will get.  The problem is that a soft landing will be regarded as a "legitimate and anticipated softening from their strong position to their normal stable and positive position" (intepreted as 35% collapse).

Perhaps the rest of the economy will be in such a bad state that 30% house price falls will seem unimportant? 30% falls may seem merciful, indeed properties may remain out of reach if unemployment rises, inflation rises, but wages don't.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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