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Samuel Whiskers

Dreaming Of Armageddon?

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GREETINGS TO ALL.

I have been reading the HPC forum since the end of last year and have finally decided to jump in and post something.

There seems to be a considerably higher level of debate about the future trajectory of house prices on this site than in the media at large and it is evident that the tide is beginning to turn.

I am not an economist, but anyone can plainly see that, in relation to historical averages and price to wage ratios, things have reached bubble proportions.

The predominance of bears on the site is a sign of the times and the fact that a crash is imminent is not really a matter of discussion anymore - especially now that it is finally beginning to seep into the mainstream media.

What I have noticed in recent weeks is that, now the sentiment seems to be turning, the content of posts, even on the main forum, seems to be becoming more and more expansively apocalyptic.

I like to read about the approaching imminent breakdown in society, peak oil, the Thames flooding and a return to a pan-European agrarian utopia as much as the next semi-paranoid HPC forum reader, but is this tendency more a reflection of the sort of people drawn to HPC than what is really going to happen?

I don't know.

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What I have noticed in recent weeks is that, now the sentiment seems to be turning, the content of posts, even on the main forum, seems to be becoming more and more expansively apocalyptic.

I for one have always been a glass is half-empty kind of person, so I have a natural leaning towards the apocalyptic which I'm often less than proud of. My usual defence is 'plan for the worst, hope for the best, expect something in between'. Besides, just as humanity needs the go-getting, risk-embracing gene, it also needs the worry-mongers to huddle in the caves and keep the homefires burning through the storms.

These days though I think there's some grounds for us to be more than averagely concerned about the next 20 years or so. Western society is built on a very successful oil-based economy, and in a world where oil becomes more scarce and *huge* nations like India and China finally beginning to get their share of global wealth and dwindling global resources, the West faces an interesting challenge if it's to preserve its current standards of living. You don't have to take too many legs away from the economic table before things get unstable, especially with underlying levels of 'blame culture' discontent over issues like immigration always bubbling away under the surface to flavour an economic depression.

Throw in the spectre of global warming and its costly side effects, the powder keg developing in the Middle East, unbalanced US military dominance, unrealistic pension expectations, the poor quality of Blue Peter presenters, and an international house pricing bubble, and you have a recipe for plenty of entertainment in the coming years.

Hopefully cheap fusion power will be solved tomorrow afternoon, the USA will take to walking everywhere on Monday, radical Islam will start flower arranging classes on Tuesday, we'll have fifty feet of snow added to the ice-caps on Wednesday, a nice three bed semi in Surrey will be 70k again by Thursday, and Blue Peter will stopping bigging up da yoof by Friday. But, to be honest, I'm not going to bet on it happening.

Anyway, worrying is natural and useful. Panicking is stupid. Worry too late and you have no choice but to panic if the shyte really does hit the fan. So here's to a little healthy paranoia. Just remember that being nailed to a cross doesn't mean you can't look on the bright side of life.

Andrew McP

PS Forgot to say that people inclined to save (as most HPC posters would seem to be) will clearly also be inclined to plan ahead. So it's perhaps not surprising that this site should have a high worry factor about the bigger economic picture, not just the place of ridiculous house prices in that picture. Whether that concern's entirely justified is probably something which only our great-great-etc-grandchildren will be in a position to judge.

Edited by Andrew McP

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
What I have noticed in recent weeks is that, now the sentiment seems to be turning, the content of posts, even on the main forum, seems to be becoming more and more expansively apocalyptic.

Everytime I see Mervyn on TV or the webcast from the BoE, I look at his glum face and know he has the same feeling.

We are doomed I tell ye doomed :)

Edited by Charlie The Tramp

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Have a look at the index in the "Life... after the Crash series" (pinned)

that is where alot of the thread talking about problems "under the rug"

have been originating from

I have been looking at some of these threads and I think that the "magazine" idea is spot on.

There seems to be a general consensus that the coming recession and HPC could end up coinciding with the beginning of the end of the oil-based global economy. This change in the global pattern of energy consumption obviously will have some very painful consequences. If we are going to take a long view then the real questions will not just be along the lines of "where shall I put my str fund?" but more like "how can I prepare for the coming changes to the socio-economic order the like of which will not been seen in the West since the end of feudalism?"

In the 1970's the British philosopher John G. Bennett was painting a picture of a difficult transitional period in the near future which seems to chime with where things are heading now:

"Visible loss of trust in the institutions could come about explosively if there were a sudden shortage of foodstuffs, and just a few years of bad harvest would be enough. But even without that there will be panics. This does not mean a time of revolution and sudden collapse. Governments and institutions will try to adapt to the changing climate of thought and feeling in the world. It will then become evident that things cannot last as they have been and that what is needed is a change in attitude that today [1970's] very few are able to accept: a change from the tendency of the last two or three thousand years to regard expansion as a good in itself to a different life attitude which even regards contractional concentration as good in itself. Such a change of attitude is so much against things as they are now [1970's] that it will truly be a revolution. Every one of us, in spite of what we think, remains geared for all practical purposes to expansion and the belief that we are living in a climate of expansion. There are very few of us who are really prepared to look for a life in which we would live with less instead of more. The lesson cannot be learnt by common sense because people close their minds to it. It can only be learnt by bitter experience". (J.G.Bennett, Needs of a New Age Community. 1977)

Edited by Samuel Whiskers

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GREETINGS TO ALL.

I don't know.

Ha! Gotcha!

Youre just one of those CIA bred alien illuminati leaders who secretly try to brainwash us with microchips implanted in our head.

But I aint falling for it.

Gonna dig me a bunker, get some dried food, stock up on gold, sell my house and eat the money.....

See, the bible, if you read the dutch version backwards in a mirror and skip every 5th letter, says landlords are gonna die "and only the FTBs will survive".

See?

Geddit?

UNDERSTAND?????

WTF is wrong with you? WHY dont you agree with ME? © ZZG and CIUW

Sh1T gotta go the robot servants of the new-world-order-central-banking-rotshchild-lizard-masons are outside........

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Ha! Gotcha!

Youre just one of those CIA bred alien illuminati leaders who secretly try to brainwash us with microchips implanted in our head.

But I aint falling for it.

Gonna dig me a bunker, get some dried food, stock up on gold, sell my house and eat the money.....

See, the bible, if you read the dutch version backwards in a mirror and skip every 5th letter, says landlords are gonna die "and only the FTBs will survive".

See?

Geddit?

UNDERSTAND?????

WTF is wrong with you? WHY dont you agree with ME? © ZZG and CIUW

Sh1T gotta go the robot servants of the new-world-order-central-banking-rotshchild-lizard-masons are outside........

you're more crazy than the thread starter

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The obscene rise in HPs has either been allowed to happen or engineered.

Something is up... the UK is not a pleasant country to live in anymore....in fact it is a disgusting, horrible wreck.

The wake up call for me was ID Cards. These have been introduced twice before in UK history... World War 1.... and ..... World War 2.

What does that tell you?

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GREETINGS TO ALL.

I have been reading the HPC forum since the end of last year and have finally decided to jump in and post something.

There seems to be a considerably higher level of debate about the future trajectory of house prices on this site than in the media at large and it is evident that the tide is beginning to turn.

I am not an economist, but anyone can plainly see that, in relation to historical averages and price to wage ratios, things have reached bubble proportions.

The predominance of bears on the site is a sign of the times and the fact that a crash is imminent is not really a matter of discussion anymore - especially now that it is finally beginning to seep into the mainstream media.

What I have noticed in recent weeks is that, now the sentiment seems to be turning, the content of posts, even on the main forum, seems to be becoming more and more expansively apocalyptic.

I like to read about the approaching imminent breakdown in society, peak oil, the Thames flooding and a return to a pan-European agrarian utopia as much as the next semi-paranoid HPC forum reader, but is this tendency more a reflection of the sort of people drawn to HPC than what is really going to happen?

I don't know.

The main problems as i see them over the next 50 years are:-

1) Overpopulation

2) Peak Oil

3) Peak water (water supplies already becoming strained due to climate change)

4) Peak food (food production globally has been falling since 1999)

5) Climate change

6) Pollution (apart from greenhouse gases)

7) Economic collapse

8) Increasing government control over populations 1984 style

9) epidemic diseases

10) Nuclear war

It's a big sh1t sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a bite!

Enjoy!

nuke2.JPG

Edited by Withnail

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"The lesson cannot be learnt by common sense because people close their minds to it. It can only be learnt by bitter experience". (J.G.Bennett, Needs of a New Age Community. 1977)"

Sorry, I should have said that though the book was published in 1977, the chapter from which the quote was taken, "The World Situation", was penned in 1973.

The "bread and circuses" element of the equation is what is helping keep the wool over many people's eyes - as you have been pointing out.

While the British public have been swallowing another bout of Big Brother, all the cannons have been moving into position.

The wonderful human characteristic known as "self-calming" will ensure that the majority of the population will not believe that the economy is failing until it affects them in a direct and personal way.

The media have reinforced the idea that Gordon is a good steward of the British economy to such an extent that it will take a lot for people to allow themselves to believe that all the impending problems - higher petrol prices, credit crunch, negative equity, higher council tax - are for real. The inertia of human sentiment coupled with the illiquidity of housing will draw out the downward slide.

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When I found this site what seems like years ago I'd already reached the point where I realised house prices could not be sustained, had no idea how people could pay the prices. Then I learned about self-cert, highly-leveraged BTL MEWers and saw it was all a big pyramid scam based on 'make believe' money.

I also knew lots of young people in debt and university-educated people in incredibly low-paid positions. While the debt boom gave the strange impression of a rich nation with oodles of cash to spend a growing minority (debt-laden graduated, economically cleansed 20 somethings, the outsourced and downsized) were being massively impoverished by the joke that is 'economic growth'.

This all came from anedotal evidence and seeing friends, family, workmates and aquiantences either winning big or losing big from the boom.

HPC.co.uk and various other sources have helped me to look at the cold hard figures too. I realised my own observations were not atypical but represented very real society-wide trends on a massive scale.

Whether I've become a 'monger of total doom' I'm not sure, but I suppose I feel the economic shocks on the horizon could be more profound than I did when just a lil' ole confused FTB.

Edited by CrashedOutAndBurned

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Personally not Dreaming of Armageddon, just realised that things can't go on as they are. When the sh** hits the fan in about eighteen months time, a lot of people reading this site may be saying if only I had listened to the bears, instead of the VI's spin.

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I have noticed that the subject has turned from HPC to the wider picture,

but I think most of it is oil/fossil fuel related,

As withnail said

1) Overpopulation

due to cheap energy

2) Peak Oil

cheap energy decline (until Fusion?)

3) Peak water (water supplies already becoming strained due to climate change)

due to overpopulation

4) Peak food (food production globally has been falling since 1999)

due to overpopulation

5) Climate change

side effect of the cheap Fossil energy

6) Pollution (apart from greenhouse gases)

side effect of the cheap Fossil energy

7) Economic collapse

cheap energy decline (until Fusion?)

8) Increasing government control over populations 1984 style

due to Economic collapse

9) epidemic diseases

due to overpopulation

Oil has given us a free ride and we over did it, over populated and didn't think about the morning after,

in the great Fossil fuel party I'd say we're about 4am in the morning and starting to sober up, the hangover is coming and we know it

Edited by Kam

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9) epidemic diseases

due to overpopulation

Epidemic diseases due to overpopulation is the only wildcard there.

The great plague in the 1300s wiped out half of the UK population. I think it fell from 2 million to 1 million.

Globally, disease mortality rates have more to do with wealth than population density. Japan is about the most densly populated country in the world, but has one of the longest life expectancies in the world (along with France!). Countries such as Niger and Mauritania are very sparcely populated and have some of the lowest.

It doesn't mean that an epedemic like bird flu couldn't sweep the world and cause mass death. But don't expect mortality to correlate as closely with population density than with wealth.

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Those familiar with my comments on here will perhaps have me down as something of a prophet of doom.

But this stuff about peak oil etc. - I really can't buy into.

We used to use wood.

Then we used coal and steam.

Then oil.

Next - a variety of things - more efficient oil, wind, geo-thermal - bloody great mirror in space - who knows - over the next 20 to 50 years huge changes and advances will be made in energy supply and consumption.

Man has always had the ingenuity - now he has the technology. I just hopes he uses it before the melting of the ice caps becomes irreversible.

The problems I foresee are much more of a social/economic nature. i.e quality of life / marginalization of parts of society / gated communities / routine employment of security guards to protect housing estates etc.

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Those familiar with my comments on here will perhaps have me down as something of a prophet of doom.

But this stuff about peak oil etc. - I really can't buy into.

We used to use wood.

Then we used coal and steam.

Then oil.

Next - a variety of things - more efficient oil, wind, geo-thermal - bloody great mirror in space - who knows - over the next 20 to 50 years huge changes and advances will be made in energy supply and consumption.

Man has always had the ingenuity - now he has the technology. I just hopes he uses it before the melting of the ice caps becomes irreversible.

The problems I foresee are much more of a social/economic nature. i.e quality of life / marginalization of parts of society / gated communities / routine employment of security guards to protect housing estates etc.

I reakon they should use miles and miles of desert to lay masses of solar panels, i personally wouldnt like to clean them , might be abit warm. I actually do think that all new build houses should have solar panels built into the roofs.

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Those familiar with my comments on here will perhaps have me down as something of a prophet of doom.

But this stuff about peak oil etc. - I really can't buy into.

We used to use wood.

Then we used coal and steam.

Then oil.

Next - a variety of things - more efficient oil, wind, geo-thermal - bloody great mirror in space - who knows - over the next 20 to 50 years huge changes and advances will be made in energy supply and consumption.

Man has always had the ingenuity - now he has the technology. I just hopes he uses it before the melting of the ice caps becomes irreversible.

The problems I foresee are much more of a social/economic nature. i.e quality of life / marginalization of parts of society / gated communities / routine employment of security guards to protect housing estates etc.

To me, this sums up the very problem - we wonder how we can replace the gap in energy supply that will be left by oil, rather than why we use so much energy in the first place.

I almost long for a dictatorship that wouldn't have to worry about re-election every 5 years, then perhaps we could have some long term planning in government. Then we might see issues such as food miles, unneccessary car use, over-packaging and mass consumption of stuff we just don't need addressed without fear of the political effects of the short term pain.

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Man has always had the ingenuity - now he has the technology. I just hopes he uses it before the melting of the ice caps becomes irreversible.

Well man better get on with it, here are a couple of recent stories:

OPEC Reveal Global Light Sweet Crude Peaked

Oil Majors See Extraction Fall

When you look at the magnitude of net energy we'll be losing from oil when the decline starts and the magnitude of net energy available from the alternatives you mention (at a cost we can afford) it's clear that there isn't an energy substitute for oil.

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Well I couldn't resist posting on this thread now could I <_<

I guess I must be one of those optimists, who does not believe the world is permanently about to end for X Y Z reason. I've argued the points with the people here in different threads, so I'm not going to go through the arguments again, but I will give my opinion/point of view.

The not-so-good news, is that both the house price crash and peak oil are real.

Well, the house price crash thing is actually good news, because it will save a generation of FTBers from very real poverty.

Peak oil is going to make energy more expensive, and less convenient, but there will still be enough (energy) to go around. The biggest problem (in my opinion) is likely to be a blip - and probably recession - while we put the infrastructure together to utilise alternative energy sources.

Every other outcome, in my opinion, is backed up by unconvincing arguments.

But, above all else, house prices are coming DOWN.

Edited by Rapid Descent

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Guest growl

I reckon we will go into a HPC over the next 18 months followed by a recession of about five years. The deepest being about two. So in about five years the property market will have bottomed out. That is in the south. I think the north of the country will be in recession for longer. Then hopefully it will be a good time to buy again.

As for oil I read somewhere that we have about thirty years of it left. The problem being not the lack of oil so much as getting the stuff out of the land and sea. The thing is there are still reserves that haven't been touched yet. Much of it heavy that isn't so great.

Car usage is definetly going to have to change. I used to drive a large diesel for a few years. Then I bought a little fiat punto about a year ago. Although I always believed modern diesel cars are more efficient than petrol. I have to say that the little car goes further on less. Which is just aswell considering the increase in fuel cost recently.

As for Armageddon. Well that might have more to do with wars in the world perhaps Iran, North Korea? North Korea worries me as I feel like they are backed into a corner. So they are unpredictable. :unsure:

But I believe in Britain sorting itself out. I think in the long run we will come out of a deep reccession better off than now. Property prices will be more realistic, people will be more aware of debt and more frugal(of course there are those that never learn).

Basically as in the past we will have to sort ourselves out. That's why we have been on the planet for so long.

I'm actually hoping that the Internet and new technology helps us to better decisions. Electric cars perhaps, working from home?

Who knows I'm optimistic. But maybe that is because I've seen it before and have made sure that I'm covered financially as well as I can be. Plus I don't need the flashest car on my road to make me happy. :)

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Guest growl
I almost long for a dictatorship that wouldn't have to worry about re-election every 5 years, then perhaps we could have some long term planning in government. Then we might see issues such as food miles, unneccessary car use, over-packaging and mass consumption of stuff we just don't need addressed without fear of the political effects of the short term pain.

I'm glad you said 'almost' when referring to a dictatorship. That is something we don't need. But in times of uncertainty dictatorships can be very appealing. The thing is we have had a long time in government of a Labour government preceeding a long time in governtment from the Tories. Possibly because people want to give a party more than four to five years at governing. That's still democracy. But I look forward to elections, I want my voice heard even if the party I vote for doesn't get in. The day we get a dictatorship is the day I leave the country.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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