Uk Population Explosion?

[Neil B]

Oh dear oh dear, you and others still don't get it.

Prices are not only determined by how much someone is prepared to pay, but also how much they're allowed to borrow.

Gone are the crazy days of 2007. Sure there's still good salary multiple deals out there, but these are mostly low LTV ratios and/or subject to strict credit checks. People are being turned down for deals left right and centre, as reflected by the low volumes of transactions.

And yet, prices have failed to respond to the current market forces.

Supply and demand never did really come into HPI ever, it was a false fundamental. If S&D really was so instrumental, every house in the < £300k bracket would be subject to extremely large discounts. Alas they're not, which suggests the S&D market argument constitutes complete and absolute b0llocks.

... This is spot on

[Executive Sadman]

In 2008 we took in 279,000 asylum seekers (let alone all other sorts of immigrants) almost at much as the US (290,000, despite them having over 5 times the population, and 40 times the space) and some 60% more than France. (160,000) Add in all the immigrants from outside the EU, the eastern europeans from inside, and all the illegals, my guess is the population is actually growing at near 1 million per year. How many asylum seekers actually return home?

EDIT ill try find the figs for that because the ayslum ones sound too big actually.

Edited May 2, 2010 by Sadman

[Tired of Waiting]

Oh dear oh dear, you and others still don't get it.

Prices are not only determined by how much someone is prepared to pay, but also how much they're allowed to borrow.

Gone are the crazy days of 2007. Sure there's still good salary multiple deals out there, but these are mostly low LTV ratios and/or subject to strict credit checks. People are being turned down for deals left right and centre, as reflected by the low volumes of transactions.

And yet, prices have failed to respond to the current market forces.

Supply and demand never did really come into HPI ever, it was a false fundamental. If S&D really was so instrumental, every house in the < £300k bracket would be subject to extremely large discounts. Alas they're not, which suggests the S&D market argument constitutes complete and absolute b0llocks.

I think there is a misunderstanding here. "Demand" doesn't mean just "need" :

" Demand - One of the two words economists use most; the other is SUPPLY. These are the twin driving forces of the market economy. Demand is not just about measuring what people want; for economists, it refers to the amount of a good or service that people are both willing and able to buy. (...) "

SOURCE: http://www.economist.com/research/economics/alphabetic.cfm?letter=D#demand

So, the supply of credit boosts demand, and the restriction of credit depresses demand.

The property bubble was inflated mainly by a demand boosted by too much and too cheap credit, and a supply restricted by an over-restrictive planning system - particularly here in the south (I'm in West Sussex).

Edited May 2, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[Confounded]

Type housing shortage myth into Google and it shows we are not the only country who are suffering the same VI propaganda. Australia appears to have the myth peddled regularly in their media as well. Found this on bubblepedia and the analysis could have been applied to this country.

They have truly do have rapid population growth but the numbers of houses built in Australia appear to more than match the required demand.

http://bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=10

"Thought I wanted to pursue the issue more on housing supply compared to population growth in Australia, so I did some figures using ABS data and compared the average number of persons per household with the average number of persons per dwelling completions.

I came up with some interesting figures - mainly reflecting that we have been overbuilding for decades. Some periods (early-mid 90's) we were building a new dwelling for every 1.1 persons in Australia when the avg per household was 2.8 persons. The current period is close to even with a dwelling created for every 2.4 people when the approx. persons per household is 2.5.

I'm sure there is a small element of dwelling Destruction, but bearing in mind that many torrens title properties are replaced with strata units and could potentially be replaced with 50 units for one house.

I've done my best with the figures for avg person per household as the figures haven't been done since 2001 (2.6 p/household) but i've been keeping it in line with trends since 1980 when it was 2.9 p/household.

Dwelling completions include all residential property (houses & units). The avg people per household is calculated across the board for all these types of dwellings so some units might have 1-2 people in them, but some houses would have 3-6 people. Population is calculated using births, deaths and NET migration as well as natural increase factoring aging population.

Anyway, this being one of the subjects i was sitting on the fence about custom essay writing, i'm pretty convinced now that's its all just media hype and that the rental shortage is merely a reflection of the influx of FHB's unable to afford to buy. This would reflect the increasing supply on the buy side and the lack of supply on the rental side.

dictionary

I was beginning to get irritated about the articles that indicated that we had x amount of population growth and were only building y amount of houses. Obviously you don't need one house per person. Not even close. I'm always dubious as to how those reported in the media decide that we need 190,000 new homes for the coming year. No one ever seems to indicate how that figure is concluded. I mean we are seeing net population growth of 330,000, and at 2.5 persons per household you would conclude we only need 132,000 dwellings, and we are currently producing 165,000. If they are basing this on future expectations, then that is simply speculation, and besides, we have established there are plenty of empty homes leftover from previous decades of overbuilding as indicated by the same figures they no doubt are using."

[Fromage Frais]

Oh dear oh dear, you and others still don't get it.

Prices are not only determined by how much someone is prepared to pay, but also how much they're allowed to borrow.

Gone are the crazy days of 2007. Sure there's still good salary multiple deals out there, but these are mostly low LTV ratios and/or subject to strict credit checks. People are being turned down for deals left right and centre, as reflected by the low volumes of transactions.

And yet, prices have failed to respond to the current market forces.

Supply and demand never did really come into HPI ever, it was a false fundamental. If S&D really was so instrumental, every house in the < £300k bracket would be subject to extremely large discounts. Alas they're not, which suggests the S&D market argument constitutes complete and absolute b0llocks.

+1

I sort of believed it until i saw the effect of credit on a virgin market in Tunisia.

Same size as the England and Wales 5 times less people hardly any building regulations.

First the expensive areas went up then everything shot up to meet it. Nobody can afford a house and there is land all over the place. Why sell its money for nothing which in itself creates a false demand. Families own whole sections of towns and set the prices as cartels.

Or my mate in china on 50,000 quid a year on contract in the Uk he goes back home and all the houses are too dear for him and all empty. He cannot get a nice wife without one and he is v v annoyed.

With unlimited easy credit you just extend you portfolio until the prices fall no need for demand from actual residents.

[Flat Bear]

Yes completely wrong again, I posted the data for you?

1991 the population was 57 not 56 (it was 56 in 1970!), but it turned to 57 in 1985 so 6 years earlier. In 2008 it was 61 so that is 4 million over 23 years.

The ability to bury ones head in the sand is unbelievable on this forum.

OK so there is a good case for saying climate change is totally unrelated to human activity, I will accept this as the jury is still out, But this is ridiculous.

Just watch Panorama - Is Britain Full? on BBC iplayer and then tell us how their figures are all wrong as well. Their figures are based on ONS stats and projections.

The only person that seems to think population growth is slowing in the UK apart from a couple on here seems to be the Labour immigration minister. Look out for the argument at the end.

[Confounded]

+1

I sort of believed it until i saw the effect of credit on a virgin market in Tunisia.

Same size as the England and Wales 5 times less people hardly any building regulations.

First the expensive areas went up then everything shot up to meet it. Nobody can afford a house and there is land all over the place. Why sell its money for nothing which in itself creates a false demand. Families own whole sections of towns and set the prices as cartels.

Or my mate in china on 50,000 quid a year on contract in the Uk he goes back home and all the houses are too dear for him and all empty. He cannot get a nice wife without one and he is v v annoyed.

With unlimited easy credit you just extend you portfolio until the prices fall no need for demand from actual residents.

Great anecdote, but hey the bulls know best the BBC tells them we have a shortage so that must be the case.

[Confounded]

The ability to bury ones head in the sand is unbelievable on this forum.

OK so there is a good case for saying climate change is totally unrelated to human activity, I will accept this as the jury is still out, But this is ridiculous.

Just watch Panorama - Is Britain Full? on BBC iplayer and then tell us how their figures are all wrong as well. Their figures are based on ONS stats and projections.

The only person that seems to think population growth is slowing in the UK apart from a couple on here seems to be the Labour immigration minister. Look out for the argument at the end.

I have said in posts in the past that I really hope I am wrong on this issue because my family own land designated for development on the edge of a market town in the SE. The last two housing busts have pretty much occurred as the paper work was nearing completion with both deals falling through.

You claim I have my head buried in the sand, this is so far from the truth, this is an open thread where I have asked the bulls to post data, so far no data has been provided. I deliberately avoided the BBC documentary because I believe it to be propaganda, it is clear on a weekly bases their stance on the supposed chronic housing shortage.