750,000 Public Sector Jobs To Go?

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/7647275/Private-sector-job-recovery-seen-as-gloom-grips-the-public-sector.html

Public sector employers are preparing the ground for substantial post-election cuts that could result in 750,000 jobs disappearing according to surveys published today ahead of the final TV election debate between political leaders.

Capital Economics believes unemployment could reach 3m over the next year with a renewed private sector squeeze adding to the pressure on the jobs market.

But the latest quarterly labour market survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development and business advisers KPMG shows the private sector jobs recovery is gathering pace, in sharp contrast to the deepening public sector pessimism.

More than 40pc of public sector organisations surveyed are anticipating they will have to make post-election cutbacks, while 17pc are planning a pay freeze. The areas expected to face the biggest run-downs are central and local government, education and health services.

Three months ago public sector employers were cautiously optimistic that they could escape significant cutbacks and were continuing to recruit but the report highlights a marked shift as the debate on the size of spending cuts gathers pace.

Alan Downey, a senior KPMG executive, said: "It is clear that the chill wind of the recession has reached the public sector with a vengeance."

The public sector jobs outlook is the bleakest since the survey started six years ago. The difference between public sector employers expecting to recruit or shed jobs is minus 59pc in central and local government, minus 45pc in education and minus 38pc in health care services.

Still house prices are going up back into double digit yoy growth, not all doom and gloom then.

[robo1968]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/7647275/Private-sector-job-recovery-seen-as-gloom-grips-the-public-sector.html

Still house prices are going up back into double digit yoy growth, not all doom and gloom then.

You know what we need...... another meeting......right now......again!

[singlemalt]

When the Sword of Damocles falls on the public sector I've no objections especially if it's the 50k+ 'managers' that get axed first. I knew of a school that had 4 deputy head teachers. One, two, three..............FOUR!!! FFS!!! Only about 700 pupils Repeat this ad infinitum throughout the public sector and you see the problem.

imo that's just a way of justifying the salary but abdicating any responsibility.

[MrFlibble]

What is going to happen when this hit the fan? Laying these people off is all well and good but if the government are then going to lavish benefits on them so they can stay in their home and maintain their current lifestyle then what is the point? 750,000 people are not simply going to march into the private sector and find work. I must confess after seeing the endless bailouts and stimulus I'm hard pushed to see a reality that involves these people being booted out of their job and then six months later being booted out of their house.

Edited April 29, 2010 by MrFlibble

[Lepista]

What is going to happen when this hit the fan? Laying these people off is all well and good but if the government are then going to lavish benefits on them so they can stay in their home and maintain their current lifestyle then what is the point? 750,000 people are not simply going to march into the private sector and find work. I must confess after seeing the endless bailouts and stimulus I'm hard pushed to see a reality that involves these people being booted out of their job and then six months later being booted out of their house.

How will they afford it?

[robo1968]

How will they afford it?

How can they afford not to?

This country needs to have more value makers, not people managing and measuring for the state with their made up titles and jobs.

There is no difference between this and a high level private sector manager getting made redundant except there is a lot less sympathy. If they can't get a job at their level get one at a lower one, that's life.

It's about time we realised this deficit is not going to go down (or debt being paid off) without some value adding being done. This culture we have of consultations, quangos, waste, slopey shouldered managers and inefficiency needs culling.

No doubt the slimey b*stards will reduce the number of 'frontline staff' to protect themselves though

[Timak]

There is no difference between this and a high level private sector manager getting made redundant except there is a lot less sympathy. If they can't get a job at their level get one at a lower one, that's life.

I'm not sure I've detected much in the way of sympathy......

I think one problem is the disconnect people have between how much they earn and how much economic activity is needed to pay those wages.

I know public and private sector workers on around £25-35k who complain they are underpaid but when I point out that the small business I used to work for had to turn over £400k a year to break even (with 3 staff on £18k salaries) once cost of sales, marketing, office space etc was all accounted for they seemed to think that was a ludicrous amount of money.

The problem we have in this country is that businesses don't need staff anymore. 20 years ago you needed a team of salesman travelling the country, a shop where customers could come in and browse, buyers finding the right products to stock, customer service staff to deal with any problems, brochures to send out on request, a warehouse to store your stock. Now you need ebay and a drop shipper.

[Lagarde's Drift]

I know public and private sector workers on around £25-35k who complain they are underpaid but when I point out that the small business I used to work for had to turn over £400k a year to break even (with 3 staff on £18k salaries) once cost of sales, marketing, office space etc was all accounted for they seemed to think that was a ludicrous amount of money.

I'm sorry, I am not of a level where I can understand these things.

Does that not sound like an extremely high fixed-cost business? What was it?

[plummet expert]

We need a shift back towards the private sector providing jobs and less people employed in the public sector which is bloated. Nothing against any individual, but there is huge scope to reorganise and reduce the bill for the wealth providing, paying part of the economy. Until you do that the national debt will continue to increase and eventually you will be a large Greece style problem. We have 68% gdp debt already and rising fast - 12%pa. Any country could reach the point of being unable to service it all depending on interest rates, very rapidly sparking crisis. Italy has a structural debt of only 5% pa, but a national debt of 115% gdp. So they are adding less debt each month, but the chances of being abale to service it and pay it back to sensible levels is remote - any increase in rates means crisis. Spain and Portugal - both in trouble now. If the money markets do not want to lend then they will offer only punitive interest rates.

The UK cannot just be content with saying it has much more longer term debt, which requires renewal in 10 or even 30 years. The markets will turn and stop you borrowing today for next months public sector bills if there is no proper debt reduction plan.

The markets had Greece on 5% only a few weeks ago for new debt. It edged up to 6.73, then 9, then 12%, 15% and today about 20% as they became 'junk bond status'.

The cuts all over Europe will reignite recession most likely. But it's prrecisely because we were so over borrowed before any crisis that you are in such a mess now. You should pay down debt in the good times, then you can afford to borrow in the recessionary times.

'No more boom or bust!' That remark shows Mr Brown does not understand markets. He should never have been chancellor or PM.

[Si1]

750,000 people are not simply going to march into the private sector and find work.

actually, since unlike previous examples (ie redundant miners and steelworkers), their white collar office skills ARE ver transferable

am sure they will be paid less, however

[bricor mortis]

We need a shift back towards the private sector providing jobs and less people employed in the public sector which is bloated. Nothing against any individual, but there is huge scope to reorganise and reduce the bill for the wealth providing, paying part of the economy. Until you do that the national debt will continue to increase and eventually you will be a large Greece style problem. We have 68% gdp debt already and rising fast - 12%pa. Any country could reach the point of being unable to service it all depending on interest rates, very rapidly sparking crisis. Italy has a structural debt of only 5% pa, but a national debt of 115% gdp. So they are adding less debt each month, but the chances of being abale to service it and pay it back to sensible levels is remote - any increase in rates means crisis. Spain and Portugal - both in trouble now. If the money markets do not want to lend then they will offer only punitive interest rates.

The UK cannot just be content with saying it has much more longer term debt, which requires renewal in 10 or even 30 years. The markets will turn and stop you borrowing today for next months public sector bills if there is no proper debt reduction plan.

The markets had Greece on 5% only a few weeks ago for new debt. It edged up to 6.73, then 9, then 12%, 15% and today about 20% as they became 'junk bond status'.

The cuts all over Europe will reignite recession most likely. But it's prrecisely because we were so over borrowed before any crisis that you are in such a mess now. You should pay down debt in the good times, then you can afford to borrow in the recessionary times.

'No more boom or bust!' That remark shows Mr Brown does not understand markets. He should never have been chancellor or PM.

[Ruffneck]

why do they always cut essential services first but have an ever increasing amount of middle management , management and filler positions?

[Timak]

I'm sorry, I am not of a level where I can understand these things.

Does that not sound like an extremely high fixed-cost business? What was it?

It was importing packaging and barcoding industrial equipment from China. Profit margins were about 30% so on £400k of turnover we'd make about £150k of profit which paid wages, ni and for our office and warehousing space. After that it was profitable.

[blankster]

We need a shift back towards the private sector providing jobs and less people employed in the public sector which is bloated.

It's all about efficiency and quality of service. I'd be quite happy to see more services taken into public ownership if that leads to improvement. Most people would agree that things like water and rail services should return to public ownership.

When a public service goes wrong, efficiency declines.

When the private company goes wrong, quality declines.

Edited April 29, 2010 by blankster

[bricor mortis]

i worked in the public sector. Mental Health frontline. I can confirm there are too many managers. They endlessly introduce 'change'

and red tape. Eventually service delivery gets strangled by beurocracy and pointless meetings which are often a way of disempowering initiative and decision making by frontline staff.

What I want to know is if all the managers were suspended today, what would the problem with their absence actually be tomorrow ? Some major glitches for sure, but the people below management level could soon reorganise, find their initiative and get on with sevice provision.

Really the Law needs to be amended to go some way to indemnifiy the public services against litigation from employees and service users. If anyone's got a problem with that then dont use the service. A lot of the madness in Public Services arose in tandem with litigation culture.

Personally I found the pressure of my nursing work in the N.HS. excessive and had a breakdown in 2003 which haunts me still. I find the private sector easier. I sometimes feel angry with blither on here about easy life public sector jobs and how the private sector is the ' real world'.

Edited April 29, 2010 by bricor mortis

[Si1]

Personally I found the pressure of my nursing work in the N.HS. excessive and had a breakdown in 2003 which haunts me still. I find the private sector easier. I sometimes feel angry with blither on here about easy life public sector jobs and how the private sector is the ' real world'.

fair point

I think we broadly know who (or what) the common enemy is

[robo1968]

i worked in the public sector. Mental Health frontline. I can confirm there are too many managers. They endlessly introduce 'change'

and red tape. Eventually service delivery gets strangled by beurocracy and pointless meetings which are often a way of disempowering initiative and decision making by frontline staff.

What I want to know is if all the managers were suspended today, what would the problem with their absence actually be tomorrow ? Some major glitches for sure, but the people below management level could soon reorganise, find their initiative and get on with sevice provision.

Really the Law needs to be amended to go some way to indemnifiy the public services against litigation from employees and service users. If anyone's got a problem with that then dont use the service. A lot of the madness in Public Services arose in tandem with litigation culture.

Personally I found the pressure of my nursing work in the N.HS. excessive and had a breakdown in 2003 which haunts me still. I find the private sector easier. I sometimes feel angry with blither on here about easy life public sector jobs and how the private sector is the ' real world'.

The real world isn't easy but it is real, we can't go on with this culture of having tiers of management, meetings, consultations and changes just so they can justify their existence. If you were allowed simply to do your job you may have found it different?

When the other poster mentioned breaking even at £400K I can sympathise with that. When you own a business and look at how much it costs to employ someone then you see an public office/department of full of non jobbers you really get how much waste there is

[blankster]

I've worked in similar services for two local authorities in the past. One was very efficient and with a strong ethos of improvement and innovation, and the other one was staid and inefficient, with a management culture of doing the minimum necessary to get by. The difference was that the former was run by a high-profile, hands-on, clued-up chief officer who was committed to the service, while the latter was run by a remote chief who was just desk-sitting until retirement.

Interestingly, in the case of the first service I described, when the hands-on chief retired and was replaced by less capable chief, staff morale declined and the 'tight ship' started to spring leaks.

My conclusion is that inspirational top management is key to successful public services.

Edited April 29, 2010 by blankster

[winkie]

actually, since unlike previous examples (ie redundant miners and steelworkers), their white collar office skills ARE ver transferable

am sure they will be paid less, however

...How nice it would be for everyone to have a safe secure job and a guaranteed income for life, money cannot continue being spent supporting this when there are more taking from the system than putting into it ...... people will have to get used to living on less, spending less, recycling, sharing, investing in their families and businesses and engaging in their communities more .... when housing costs are reduced they won't need so much to live on.

[robo1968]

...How nice it would be for everyone to have a safe secure job and a guaranteed income for life, money cannot continue being spent supporting this when there are more taking from the system than putting into it ...... people will have to get used to living on less, spending less, recycling, sharing, investing in their families and businesses and engaging in their communities more .... when housing costs are reduced they won't need so much to live on.

agreed

[barrabus]

...How nice it would be for everyone to have a safe secure job and a guaranteed income for life, money cannot continue being spent supporting this when there are more taking from the system than putting into it ...... people will have to get used to living on less, spending less, recycling, sharing, investing in their families and businesses and engaging in their communities more .... when housing costs are reduced they won't need so much to live on.

I think the worm is turning ,in the town center two days ago i saw a group of about 5 local authority suits, with thier town council badges on,and i herd a number of people commenting, remarks like spongers parasites *****ers ,they started to walk quickly back to the town hall ,council tax bills are really hurting the main stream.

[RDW]

why do they always cut essential services first but have an ever increasing amount of middle management , management and filler positions?

Because these are the positions that the masonic brethren take / give each other, the corruption especially in the NHS is rife.

[jaspers]

Why job losses? Back of an envelope calculations, 5% pay cut yr on yr for three years plus maximum public sector salary set as a multiple of lowest earnings would reduce deficit to less than 4% GDP within the term of a parliament.

[pyracantha]

What is going to happen when this hit the fan? Laying these people off is all well and good but if the government are then going to lavish benefits on them so they can stay in their home and maintain their current lifestyle then what is the point? 750,000 people are not simply going to march into the private sector and find work. I must confess after seeing the endless bailouts and stimulus I'm hard pushed to see a reality that involves these people being booted out of their job and then six months later being booted out of their house.

Private sector workers have for years had little or no job security. Are we meant to feel sympathy now public sector workers are no longer able to count on a job for life, protected pensions etc?

[ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere]

When the Sword of Damocles falls on the public sector I've no objections especially if it's the 50k+ 'managers' that get axed first. I knew of a school that had 4 deputy head teachers. One, two, three..............FOUR!!! FFS!!! Only about 700 pupils Repeat this ad infinitum throughout the public sector and you see the problem.

imo that's just a way of justifying the salary but abdicating any responsibility.

Only 4! I think this school needs to hire some assistant heads straight away. I mean who is working on the school's business plan or figuring out the best way to store pupil tracking data for the next OfSTED inspection?

Edited April 29, 2010 by ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere