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Slaughter Of The Housing Speculators

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This culture of speculation has gone on way too long in the UK, and when it ends it can't come soon enough.

The British speculators, foreign speculators, flippers, BTLs, "investors", Kirsty and Phil.

Slaughter the lot of them and hand back Britain's starter homes to the young working people of this country at a price that doesn't require economic slavery.

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Well I would be only too glad to see house prices come down and for inflation caused by speculation to end.

But my worry is that comparing things with America isn't quite correct; The US has a huge amount of open space in the middle, and so although in the costal cities land is at a premium, the US has the capacity to build its way out of house price inflation.

Here in the UK, due to planning laws etc. we don't have that luxury. The housing supply simply isn't able to grow to meet demand. That's why I don't think we can compare what is happening in the US with what might happen here.

I'd like to be proved wrong though.

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The housing supply simply isn't able to grow to meet demand.

[Cynical Mode]

Yes that's right,

Apparantly, the UK's experiencing a Population Boom at the moment which puts even the Chinese to shame. According to NuLabour Stats, there's 14 kids to every family in the UK at the moment, which means there simply just isn't enough houses to go round to house everyone, thus driving up prices. [/cynical mode]

[Reality mode]

Or could it just be just be Speculative buying of houses? [/reality mode]

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Well I would be only too glad to see house prices come down and for inflation caused by speculation to end.

But my worry is that comparing things with America isn't quite correct; The US has a huge amount of open space in the middle, and so although in the costal cities land is at a premium, the US has the capacity to build its way out of house price inflation.

Here in the UK, due to planning laws etc. we don't have that luxury. The housing supply simply isn't able to grow to meet demand. That's why I don't think we can compare what is happening in the US with what might happen here.

I'd like to be proved wrong though.

The whole of the population of these islands live on 4% of the land area - including roads. There is plenty of room for more housing but, for some weird reason, there is a concensus in this country that we have a shortage of land!

It is a mind-boggling example of mass hypnosis.

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ANOTHER LOOMING 2BR DISASTER...?

"One of the biggest problems I see for our housing speculator is the forward supply of new homes they have already been locked into. Certainly, on the east and west coasts and in Las Vegas – and other frothy vacation and major markets – high rise after high rise are coming out of the ground. Ivana Trump (long divorced from “the Donald”) is marketing the Trump luxury brand name for a high-rise building going up with her name in Las Vegas where units will begin at $550,000 and top out at $35 million for the penthouse. (In South Florida alone, my wife and I recently drove south from Fort Lauderdale to South Beach and we counted over 50 new developments in various stages of construction on the coast road). There are twelve high-rises going up in West Palm Beach, and another twenty four jumbo projects in downtown Miami. Every single one of these projects is priced out of range for the middle class buyer.

There is another “dark side” to speculating in real estate. Hundreds of thousands of units that have been sold in advance by developers to speculators. This method is used by developers so they can get the construction finance they need. The speculator is responsible for the purchase but he won’t actually “buy” the unit until the project is complete and the unit has a Certificate of Occupancy. Therefore, the sale will not be counted as a sale until the date of closing! (Moreover, the developer has gotten the speculator to sign an agreement preventing him from reselling the unit for at least a year – after the speculator has taken occupancy – so the developer won’t be selling against himself. This leaves the speculator holding the bag, but they seem willing to take the risk."

- Sound familiar??

Everyone is trying to get on the gravy train, they all think they've lost out if they don't buy now. Consider the property taxes, condominium and flood insurance costs if you plan on being an owner ocupier

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This will show the population growth at the moment

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/py...ds/pages/UK.asp

See the drop after the 30 years old. Looks like a typical developed country chart. Low birth rate. In effect it has been stated that in coming years there will bemore married not having kids to having kids.

With these stats I would demand for four bedroom houses dropping. With an ageing population these tend to migrate or downgrade. Possibly a an increase in development of retirement villages.

Also a more tend to inner city living for childless couples.

A worry for the future will be pensions with the lower number supporting a higher number which will mean a higher taxes for those working.

In Australia the government has advertised the fact that there is a low birth rate and has asked the nation to have one for the father one for the mother and one for the country. Unfortunately with cost of living and higher debt in each household both couples have to work. An incentive was $3000 per child not that this would go

along way.

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Guest muttley
This will show the population growth at the moment

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/py...ds/pages/UK.asp

See the drop after the 30 years old. Looks like a typical developed country chart. Low birth rate.  In effect it has been stated that in coming years there will bemore married not having kids to having kids.

With these stats I would demand for four bedroom houses dropping. With an ageing population these tend to migrate or downgrade. Possibly a an increase in development of retirement villages.

Also a more tend to inner city living for childless couples.

A worry for the future will be pensions with the lower number supporting a higher number which will mean a higher taxes for those working.

The point.

Demographics are not mentioned nearly enough when VIs trot out the "Prices always go up eventually" line.This is bound to have an effect on the dynamics of the housing market,particularly the "family houses".

Parents used to have a lot of children.Now children have a lot of parents.

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The whole of the population of these islands live on 4% of the land area - including roads. There is plenty of room for more housing but, for some weird reason, there is a concensus in this country that we have a shortage of land!

It is a mind-boggling example of mass hypnosis.

We've got something similar in my part of Oz only it's with water, not land. In short, we've got enough fresh water coming down the river to supply literally every house in the country. We take about 1% out and the other 99% flows into the sea.

But for some strange reason every authority even remotely involved with water, environment groups and probably half the population insist that it's scarce enough to warrant tough restrictions on use. It's always based on some argument about needing to save it for the future despite this clearly being absolute nonsense. It's not "saved" at all - just keeps going around and around in nature's cycle. An absolutely classic case of "keep telling the lie and soon they'll believe it".

Much the same with practically everything though. Those things that are actually likely to be in short supply, for example petrol, are the things that nobody cares about. "There's enough for another 30 years" they scream. Never mind that there's enough water, land etc. for the next few THOUSAND years at least. And that neither water or land are actually consumed such that what we do today has minimal impact on the options of future generations. Whereas oil burned today is gone, in human time scale terms, forever.

Strange world. If it's actually scarce everyone wastes it. If there's plenty we all go on as if it were in critically short supply. Land, water, fuel - all the same. VERY easy to fool a large section of the population. Just keep telling the lie.

Edited by Smurf1976

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The point.

Demographics are not mentioned nearly enough when VIs trot out the "Prices always go up eventually" line.This is bound to have an effect on the dynamics of the housing market,particularly the "family houses".

Parents used to have a lot of children.Now children have a lot of parents.

Surely the only solution will be to open the floodgates to immigrants?

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Guest muttley
Surely the only solution will be to open the floodgates to immigrants?

I think we will all have to work longer and lower our expectations in our retirements.

The current trend of retiring at 60 and doing a World Cruise will have to be ammended.

Are immigrants prepared to come here to pay the taxes that would bail us out?

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Well I would be only too glad to see house prices come down and for inflation caused by speculation to end.

But my worry is that comparing things with America isn't quite correct; The US has a huge amount of open space in the middle, and so although in the costal cities land is at a premium, the US has the capacity to build its way out of house price inflation.

Here in the UK, due to planning laws etc. we don't have that luxury. The housing supply simply isn't able to grow to meet demand. That's why I don't think we can compare what is happening in the US with what might happen here.

I'd like to be proved wrong though.

There is more than land to worry about. For example, Nevada has had a huge housing boom. There is land, lots of land, but water...

Even on the coast, there is land. You might have to drive for an hr or 2 if you are talking about L.A. or NYC, but drive up the cost of northern Calif some time. They have lots of land, and water. No jobs, but land and water.

Karen

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Demographics are not mentioned nearly enough when VIs trot out the "Prices always go up eventually" line.This is bound to have an effect on the dynamics of the housing market,particularly the "family houses".

I think demographics had a big part to play in causing the crash, that people are single for a lot longer, living in their own houses. This pushed up the demand for housing and with rather inflexible supply, prices went up.

Of course the trend is being corrected with more people renting rooms, staying with parents longer etc.

And while there is lots of space in the UK its not where people want to live. I just spent a few months in LA and everywhere you look they are building hundreds of houses. Of course a lot of it is a little bit further from the city, but we have absolutly nothing like that scale of development going on around London.

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[Cynical Mode]

Yes that's right,

Apparantly, the UK's experiencing a Population Boom at the moment which puts even the Chinese to shame. According to NuLabour Stats, there's 14 kids to every family in the UK at the moment, which means there simply just isn't enough houses to go round to house everyone, thus driving up prices. [/cynical mode]

[Reality mode]

Or could it just be just be Speculative buying of houses? [/reality mode]

I don't think you need to have cramped conditions with dozens of people in houses to be at a point where you could say there is a property shortage. There is a shortage when there are not enough houses to meet people's aspirations, and at the moment that includes a lot of people who want a lot of space for themselves, which they can afford because they don't have any kids, and may live in a couple with two large incomes.

Shortage is also a regional thing, because there are only shortages generally where the best jobs are or the nicest environments. But again, that is still a shortage, because we all aspire to live close to somewhere we can have a secure income and a nice environment.

I think there has been a lot of speculation for sure. But I don't think you can get away from the fact that housing at least in areas of high employment is in short supply given the amount of space in a property per resident that we generally aspire to in this country.

I'm not saying I like this conclusion. I'm just saying that's how I see it. What I would like is for house building to increase at a massive pace to make houses cheaper. The reason I would like that is because housing is a necessity, and expensive necessities are in my view a route to poor quality of life, at least in the materialistic sense.

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The whole of the population of these islands live on 4% of the land area - including roads. There is plenty of room for more housing but, for some weird reason, there is a concensus in this country that we have a shortage of land!

It is a mind-boggling example of mass hypnosis.

I totally agree with you. I know in a physical reality sense there is more than enough space for everybody here at the moment to have cheap housing for all. (Although other resources might pose more of a problem). But that's not practical is it? The practical reality is that planning laws, and the distribution of land ownership means that for most there is a real shortage of housing, if by shortage we mean shortage of housing of the size per person that we generally aspire to in this country.

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Surely the only solution will be to open the floodgates to immigrants?

Problem is that all those youthful Croatians also grow old along with the rest of the population <_<

So unless you find some immortal Peter Pan serf like immigrants who never grow old nor require health care or pensions you have a rolling problem.

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Problem is that all those youthful Croatians also grow old along with the rest of the population  <_<

So unless you find some immortal Peter Pan serf like immigrants who never grow old nor require health care or pensions you have a rolling problem.

The same would be true if the fertility rate went up. The large number of children born would grow old eventually as well. The problem arises due to an imbalance between the working population and the retired population. The situation developing is that we will have too many older people for the working population to support. The solution is to increase the population at the working level. Either increase the fertility rate (although it is difficult to persuade people to have more children) or bring in more young citizens via immigration.

You are right that it is a rolling problem, but when the immigrant generation get old they will have to deal with it themselves by having more children or allowing more immigration.

I think it is a bit niave to think that any government will be overly concerned about hypothetical problems arising in 40 years time. They want to solve the problem while they are in power.

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there is not unlimited land near the arteries of transport,

especially near train stations.

And that is where you will want to live in a ultra-high oil price environment

Sounds like Dr Bubb will be buying up large swathes of Stratford then. It may not be too nice to live in now, but the transport links are outstanding.

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two facts..

ten years ago there were 2.75 people for ever home.. nowadys that figure is 2.6

the baby boom is over..

and as for land..

Download and instal google earth..

google earth is wicked.. big saterlite images of the world.

you will notice that England is one big field..

as for Devon.. where I am..it is empty..

Nope land is not an issue, avaialbility is higher then ever..

that people think otherwise is from the telly programmes..

and they are lying

and the cheap homes plan.. how much do you think it cost to build a home?

pittance.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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