InternationalRockSuperstar Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 Historically (last 200 years) gold has been a terrible store of value. you can't store value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 Agree. $2/pound is way overvalued and makes the UK uncompetitive, as witnessed by the destruction of manufacturing over the past decade. It must be annoying to have to take into account the fact that manufacturing has not been destroyed over the last decade. We are still the world's 6th largest manufacturer. The only thing that has happened is that less people work in manufacturing for rather obvious reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirectapproach Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 So the pound makes it through to tea time once again. Phew. That was close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headrow Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 So the pound makes it through to tea time once again. Phew. That was close. A year ago i only got $1.35 for a £1 at Heathrow and i wasn't surrounded by people running around shouting 'buy Gold the end of the world is nigh' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 As an inflation hedge gold might be okay but in a deflationary or post-bubble environment there are better investments. If you hold mostly gold I would recommend you quietly diversify into other assets because when the herd moves to sell it happens very quickly as in 1980 when gold crashed from $2347.63 to about half that amount within a few short weeks after a massive 2 or 3 day drop. IT has never recovered. LOL Holmstake mining 1929-1936 if anyone is any doubt how gold does in a deflation. The herd are nowhere near gold and miners thats the plain truth. Long Gold short stocks thats me, not a bug probably far more diversified than you but I know golds role in the world. Novagold up 7% today hows Honeywell doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 Historically (last 200 years) gold has been a terrible store of value. So its cheap! bit like corn and wheat and other stuff. What do you suggest buying? a house! I like stuff thats cheap. Maybe its just me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 I know--you are excited because you have bought a lot of gold right? Gold mining shares aren't like buying gold, they're shares RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 GOLD 04/28/2010 05:00 1164.20 1165.20 -4.20 Gold and the $ have parted ways this morning. you were saying... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noodle Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Honeywell are up just over 100% whereas gold is up 2.476% over the same period. PIMCO are a bond fund not into metals. Honeywell have been making a killing in Iraq. It's been a straight forward rip-off of the US taxpayer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimDiGritz Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 GOLD is headed for a crash. Its a commodity that attracts both irrational exuberance and rational abhorrence.* It is susceptible to huge falls that happen very suddenly and it can take decades to recover--or never recover. Gold was $2347.63 in 1980 (inflation adjusted) and stands as the worst investment of all time--even a NSI savings account outperformed gold by a mile. Deflation beckons and cash will be king--provided you aren't in Euros. * To coin a new phrase. Let's see what happens when COMEX defaults on all that fractional reserve fiat paper gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 (edited) Frankly, I wish gold would crash. A nice £200 fall would suit me (or more even!). The cheaper the better. More ounces!!! Chances of this taking place? Hmmmm ... Edited April 30, 2010 by Errol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 gold at ~ £770 today... ...was at ~ £600 a year ago RB - "Gold is a bubble" ...and at ~ £450 2 years ago RB - "Gold is a bubble" ...and at ~ £350 3 years ago RB - "Gold is a bubble" ...and at ~ £250 5 years ago RB - "Gold is a bubble" when will it end?! at £1000??? The poor guy is getting the fur burnt off his back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban_hymn Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Righty ho, that's my signal. Time to buy more gold. IMO, gold will see the $400's within a year. Fading RBs calls has made me big money over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Demand will always ensure gold goes up. It cannot crash as there is a shortage of supply. Now is the time to get on the gold ladder because it can only go up from here. The gold bugs sound much like the bulls who see property as a one-way bet. Truth is, gold stands as the worst long term investment of all time as it is barely worth 50% of what it was worth at the 30 year peak in 1981 (inflation adjusted). A deposit in NS&I would have outperformed gold over the same period many times over. Gold is a roller-coaster bet and the key is not believing it always goes up but in seeing when its time to get out. Long term bet it isn't--but if you feel lucky you can do well. If you bought a year ago you might have made, lets see, 50% on gold?** Had you bought shares in Honeywell, for example, you would have doubled your money--and sold by now. I recommended UKCoal a couple of years back (SPLINE made a fortune on the punt) when it was something like 66p and it outperformed gold in the next year hitting a peak of 5 pounds. Sell and you would have made more money than gold bugs have ever dreamed off. Held and you are still crying over the loss. Gold is the same way--buy but don't ever think you can bet on its going up for ever. So the only question is--should people sell now, hold forever (because gold is a good long term investment, despite fact that show otherwise,* and you get to leave it to your kids) or do you pick a time to sell and actualise profit? * http://www.the-privateer.com/gold97.html ** just kidding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Historically (last 200 years) gold has been a terrible store of value. According to Gunter Von Krappenschitz, the German bullion trader, gold stands as the worst long term investment of all time having seen several crashes during Claudius' reign in Rome and even worse when Charles V was pushed back to Constantinople. More recently, 1981-2010 it has been a disaster. It is because it is a commodity that is traded according to the value that is ascribed to it. It has the same intrinsic value formula as tin or wheat and relies on the fiat of the day for its price. Paper money has intrinsic value based on the strength of the one backing it. Things change and values chnage with them--its all fiat. The gold bugs attach a mystical value to it which is where its danger as an investment lies--too much sentiment. An otherwise sane HPCer can go ballistic if there is a suggestion that gold can go up as well as down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Long term target for gold is around $5000. This may be conservative. In sterling the next target is in excess of £900 an ounce. No time scales. But within the next few years. Remember, gold is not an investment. See it as means of protecting value in the hyperinflationary holocaust that is to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 The gold bugs sound much like the bulls who see property as a one-way bet. There is a certain similarity I'll admit. A lot of people did make money in the housing boom, they were the one's who bought and sold at the right time in the cycle. What's the right time to sell gold? I dunno, but after the events of the past few weeks (Greece especially) and the state of the UK's finances being publicly exposed in the MSM, now, I think, is not that time. Maybe when the likes of Postgoldforcash starts selling gold to the public, rather than buying it off them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 http://www.xe.com/ 1 GBP 1.51887 The traders are eyeing up our non-existent political willingness to state a viable plan to reduce our debt. IIRC we are in worse shape than Greece but have not suffered the same fate as "we have a plan...." We do? You're wrong again, RB, just like you were about Sarah Palin. The euro is falling because of the Greek crisis and forecasters expect the pound to rally against the dollar. I bet you've bet on Gordon winning amajoroty on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 There is a certain similarity I'll admit. A lot of people did make money in the housing boom, they were the one's who bought and sold at the right time in the cycle. What's the right time to sell gold? I dunno, but after the events of the past few weeks (Greece especially) and the state of the UK's finances being publicly exposed in the MSM, now, I think, is not that time. Maybe when the likes of Postgoldforcash starts selling gold to the public, rather than buying it off them? Golds ultimate peak will most likely be obvious because it will coincide with parabolic price increase and more importantly a raft of mickey mouse mining companies coming to the market and a total media driven euphoria for the asset class. The idea that this exists now is laughable when comapred to the DAQ and housing euphoria peaks Personally i think its bull market has up to a decade longer to run but im expecting a multiyear decline phase starting within a year within the bull market that will take >50% off the price in $ terms although it may look like a flattish correction in sterling terms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/7375415/Gold-is-decades-best-performing-investment.html Overall, gold, silver and platinum increased in value by 242 per cent between December 1999 and December 2009, the equivalent of an average annual return of 13.1 per cent. Gold saw the biggest rise over the decade at 277 per cent, followed by platinum at 230 per cent and silver at 227 per cent. The bottom line for an investment is the average return over a decent period. 10 years sounds like a good period to choose. So how does gold stack up against other investments? I have some retirement money in a US based fund (Oakmark) which is a very conservative stock-bond blend: Oakmark Equity & Income CL I YTD Performance as of 04/30/2010 5.60% 1 Year* 33.52% 3 Year* 4.49% 5 Year* 7.36% 10 Year* 9.84% Life* 11.55% I also have some in an internationally diversified Oakmark Fund: Oakmark Global CL I (OAKGX) YTD Performance as of 04/30/2010 8.05% 1 Year* 73.29% 3 Year* -2.18% 5 Year* 6.55% 10 Year* 12.38% If you had chosen a slightly riskier fund (slightly--still Morningstar 5 star rated) you would have outperformed gold: Harbor International Inv CL YTD Performance as of 04/30/2010 -0.97% 1 Year* 63.58% 3 Year* -2.24% 5 Year* 8.77% Life* 13.86% Bottom line--just about any decent fund would have almost matched or outperformed gold over the last 10 years. OVer 20 years and it is a no-contest--gold lags by a huge margin. So why all the excitement about gold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/user/flaskofcoffee#p/u/4/s_AqY4ZquVo Gold showing store of work value and volatility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 You're wrong again, RB, just like you were about Sarah Palin. The euro is falling because of the Greek crisis and forecasters expect the pound to rally against the dollar. I bet you've bet on Gordon winning amajoroty on Thursday. Sarah was voted in the top 20 sexiest women in the world! The Geordie is now ranked number 1. Fing is, Cheryl will regret those tatoos in a few year's time whereas Sarah will still be a cracker at 60. The pound will drop when Cameron starts calling the IMF to do an audit to reveal the true extent of Brown's mess. Unemployment is still risng and the HPC will resume in earnest. Not good Sterling fodder. I think the Tories will win by a 9 seat majority.* I thought they would have landslided it (see Crimbo forecast) but it seems that the sheeple are still believing in Gordon and we also have Leggover in the mix which we didn't have at Crimbotime. _____________________________ *Betfair might offer odds on this--if so, I'm in for a fiver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Bottom line--just about any decent fund would have almost matched or outperformed gold over the last 10 years. OVer 20 years and it is a no-contest--gold lags by a huge margin. So why all the excitement about gold? Gold is not an investment. If you understand nothing else, understand that. Gold is not an investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Gold is not an investment. If you understand nothing else, understand that. Gold is not an investment. A gamble? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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