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DonnieDarker

Land Reg Data - How To Make Sense Of It?

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Here is the quarterly data on flats from the land registry for my post-code:

Price / Volume

Apr-Jun 2005: 246115 / 13

Jan-Mar 2005: 237293 / 15

Oct-Dec 2004 266211 / 21

Jul-Sep 2004: 276893 / 33

Apr-Jun 2004: 246856 / 32

Jan-Mar 2004: 267872 / 20

My problem with this is that it doesn't tell me very much. In fact, surely all of these "averages" tell you very little.

A flat in my are could cost between £190K (1 bed) to £350K (3 bed). I can see volumes have dropped significantly but it is very hard to tell exactly what is happening to prices.

Any advice? I suppose the next logical step would be for me to look at which properties sold (on an individual basis) and see if the avergaes were spiked by, for exampe, the sale of a 3 bed property.

Edited by DonnieDarker

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Apr-Jun 2005:    246115    /    13                       

Jan-Mar 2005:    237293    /    15                       

Oct-Dec 2004      266211      /  21                       

Jul-Sep 2004:      276893    /    33                     

Apr-Jun 2004:      246856    /  32                       

Jan-Mar 2004:      267872    /  20   

What it tells me is that between Apr-Jun 2004, 32 people were prepared to pay an average of £246,000 for a house in your area.

A year on, only 13 people are prepared to go into an Estate Agent and pay that same price. It's real change in sentiment.

The people you don't see in the volume figures have withdrawn from the housing market until prices come down, and I don't blame them.

In a way the best protest against high house prices is simply withdraw from the market altogether.

Every FTB out there should be doing that right now.

Edited by Warwickshire Lad

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I've gone that extra mile and totted up all of the individual properties that sold for the periods above.

In Apr-Jun 05

the range was thus:

PRICE

178000

197000

216000

217000

217500

220000

225000

245000

268000

295000

314000

389000

for the year before it was:

145000

158000

180000

180000

180000

182000

200000

204000

212000

212500

218000

219500

220000

227000

228000

238000

240000

249000

250000

250000

264000

275000

279000

281000

285000

285000

321000

323000

335000

339950

390000

What I then did was calculate 2 averages:

"mean average"

"unspiked average" (where I removed the top 2 and bottomn 2 from the range - this sidesteps the issue of 1 and 3 bedroom flats spiking the average).

mean average

2004 = £244224

2005 = £248458

:(

unspiked average

2004 = £242148

2005 = £237937

:lol:

For me, this goes someway to confirming what I had guesstimated had happened in the market. Previoulsy I had thought the market was somewhere between 0% and minus 4% on last year.

This data suggests that it is 2% down.

PS.

I know that I did not find all of the data...I think there must be some confusion on the land reg's site over what is classified as a flat and what isnt.

Edited by DonnieDarker

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I've gone that extra mile and totted up all of the individual properties that sold for the periods above.

<snip>

In Australia and New Zealand median price is used as the primary measure. From the data above, the before and after median prices are 238,000 and 222,250, a 6.6% fall.

So, in Australia and New Zealand this would be called a crash. In the UK, a stabilisation.

Statistically it's very difficult to remove any skew in the data, so either may be correct.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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