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IMupNorth

Lets Get Real

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I've seen some posts recently saying the LR have been skewed by the greater proportion of more expensive houses that have been selling and therefore it hasn't shown thre true falls that are really happening ....... !! yeh get real.

I've questioned people to do the maths and confirm this - no one has, so I thought I'd do it it my part of the world - good old North Yorks. The stats are below, make of them as you will.

This compares Apr - Jun qtr 04 to 05.

First 2004.

Detached = £269,829 - 1205 houses = 29.5%

Semis = £157,570 - 1240 houses = 30.4%

Terraced = £139,392 - 1184 houses = 29%

Flats = £133,365 - 453 flats = 11.1%

Now 2005 figures

Detached = £275,802 - 659 houses = 28.3%

Semis = £173,585 - 733 houses = 31.5%

Terraced = £148,196 - 700 houses = 30%

Flats = £141,192 - 239 flats = 10.3%

So, sure volumes are down, but so what. The important thing is that prices are up YOY, and they are up most for the less expensive houses. There is practically no change in the proportion of different price bands that have gone across the LR books.

Face facts mentlaist bears, there's no price crash - prices are up 4.8% on average in my part of the world.

So, go on you mentlaist bears, go and do your own research and tell me what is really happening in your part of the world !

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So, sure volumes are down, but so what.

So if you owned a shop and half your customers disappeared, would you be concerned? It certainly rattles estate agents, even if prices stick it will mean we only need half the number of them.

So you're sitting in your shop and half your customers have deserted you, what's the best course of action, raise your prices? Will that bring more people in and keep your existing cutomers from leaving?

It's classic supply and demand, the higher the price you screw out of people the smaller the market.

Regardless if you doubt the impact of absent FTB's not being reflected in the figures one thing we cannot question are the lags, sales agreed in Q4 2004 have only just come through on the latest stats. What happends in mid-2006 when we've had a year of clear falls and LR figures reflecting the whole of 2005?

Edited by BuyingBear

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I've seen some posts recently saying the LR have been skewed by the greater proportion of more expensive houses that have been selling and therefore it hasn't shown thre true falls that are really happening ....... !! yeh get real.

I've questioned people to do the maths and confirm this - no one has, so I thought I'd do it it my part of the world - good old North Yorks. The stats are below, make of them as you will.

This compares Apr - Jun qtr 04 to 05.

First 2004.

Detached = £269,829 - 1205 houses = 29.5%

Semis = £157,570 - 1240 houses = 30.4%

Terraced = £139,392 - 1184 houses = 29%

Flats = £133,365 - 453 flats = 11.1%

Now 2005 figures

Detached = £275,802 - 659 houses = 28.3%

Semis = £173,585 - 733 houses = 31.5%

Terraced = £148,196 - 700 houses = 30%

Flats = £141,192 - 239 flats = 10.3%

So, sure volumes are down, but so what. The important thing is that prices are up YOY, and they are up most for the less expensive houses. There is practically no change in the proportion of different price bands that have gone across the LR books.

Face facts mentlaist bears, there's no price crash - prices are up 4.8% on average in my part of the world.

So, go on you mentlaist bears, go and do your own research and tell me what is really happening in your part of the world !

Sorry to pi$$ on your bonfire, but even your figures shouts crash, look at the volume of sales.

Detaches down 45%

Semis down 41%

Terraces down 41%

Flats down 49%.

The actual prices become meaning less if the volume has halved, where were you schooled, Academy Of Dumb Ar$es.

Edited by Dicky

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Flats in Battersea:

Apr-Jun2004  Apr-Jun2005 

SW11 1 £278212  £256845  -7.68%

SW11 2 £213533  £232091  8.69%

SW11 3 £358440  £306493  -14.49%

SW11 4 £479646  £442005  -7.85%

SW11 5 £264170  £223403  -15.43%

SW11 6 £319386  £295231  -7.56%

   

Total £1913387  £1756068  -8.22%

So the price of flats in Battersea has fallen 8.22% in a year.

Prices in the North are still rising?

Don't worry, they won't be for long...

Edited by BandWagon

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Ok, here's all the UK (England & Wales) Info, YOY:

=SALES= ------------- Q2 2004 - Q2 2005

Detached -------------- 66,865 - 43,361

Semi ------------------- 84,707 - 61,308

Terraced --------------- 98,086 - 74,477

Flat/Maisonette -------- 50,328 - 37,744

=SALES AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL=

Detached --------------- 22.3% - 19.9%

Semi -------------------- 28.2% - 28.3%

Terraced ---------------- 32.7% - 34.3%

Flat/Maisonette --------- 16.8% - 17.4%

Its better to look at the England & Wales, rather than one county or region.

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I've seen some posts recently saying the LR have been skewed by the greater proportion of more expensive houses that have been selling and therefore it hasn't shown thre true falls that are really happening ....... !! yeh get real.

I've questioned people to do the maths and confirm this - no one has, so I thought I'd do it it my part of the world - good old North Yorks. The stats are below, make of them as you will.

This compares Apr - Jun qtr 04 to 05.

First 2004.

Detached = £269,829 - 1205 houses = 29.5%

Semis = £157,570 - 1240 houses = 30.4%

Terraced = £139,392 - 1184 houses = 29%

Flats = £133,365 - 453 flats = 11.1%

Now 2005 figures

Detached = £275,802 - 659 houses = 28.3%

Semis = £173,585 - 733 houses = 31.5%

Terraced = £148,196 - 700 houses = 30%

Flats = £141,192 - 239 flats = 10.3%

So, sure volumes are down, but so what. The important thing is that prices are up YOY, and they are up most for the less expensive houses. There is practically no change in the proportion of different price bands that have gone across the LR books.

Face facts mentlaist bears, there's no price crash - prices are up 4.8% on average in my part of the world.

So, go on you mentlaist bears, go and do your own research and tell me what is really happening in your part of the world !

Jeez I thought there was supposed to be a ripple effect from South to North, but looks like its just as bad up there as it is down here !!

Where I am in Herts has also seen a small rise in prices this year but sales volumes DOWN by Approx 58% !!

Surely its obvious something is up !

The only way for HPI is down, then into the negative probably before the end of the year.

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Terraced houses in Battersea:

Apr-Jun2004  Apr-Jun2005

SW11 1 £499218  £476400  -4.57%

SW11 2 £356413  £326359  -8.43%

SW11 3 £496464  £433833  -12.62%

SW11 4 £558595  £732500  31.13%

SW11 5 £422767  £402362  -4.83%

SW11 6 £578726  £581547  0.49%

   

Total £2912183  £2953001  1.40%

Edited by BandWagon

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ImUP North

North Yorkshire is my area. I deal with the LR fairly frequently so know basically the extent of the delay before the figures are released. I also work in a firm which does a small amount of Estate Agency work - I'm not an Estate Agent (God Forbid!), so have a fairly clear idea of the current state of the property market.

Up until about June/July of last year people were going mental buying some houses at approximately twice the value of two years previously. Many of these will not have shown up in the LR figures until several months later. Since about Autumn of last year things have been dead. Many of the pro property investors have steered clear of the market, knowing we are at the top of a bubble.

OK, so not many sellers have dropped their prices that significantly (although some I know have in order to sell), but there are plenty of would be buyers sitting on the sidelines biding their time and sellers getting increasingly desperate to sell/trade up.

I still come across some buying way overpriced two bed terraces, although this doesn't prove anything, other than there are still people sucked into the 'must get on the ladder at all costs' mentality. The important thing is TRANSACTION VOLUMES ARE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. The calm before the storm. News of the crash has not reached the mainstream in North Yorkshire, although it soon will.

The figures you show are as I would have expected in North Yorkshire. As the North saw the latter part of the rises, so they will also be the last to see the significant falls.

Edited by JST

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The bulls favourite "rear view mirror" appears again.

2 points: First, I dare you to do this thread again, in the same form next quarter. Go on, I dare ya.

Second, glad to see you think all flats cost the same, all houses cost the same etc. It is, of course, quite possible that there are variations within these categories, don't you think?

(The expression "don't you think" was a rhetorical statement, not a question)

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ImUP North

North Yorkshire is my area.  I deal with the LR fairly frequently so know basically the extent of the delay before the figures are released.  I also work in a firm which does a small amount of Estate Agency work - I'm not an Estate Agent (God Forbid!), so have a fairly clear idea of the current state of the property market.

Up until about June/July of last year people were going mental buying some houses at approximately twice the value of two years previously.  Many of these will not have shown up in the LR figures until several months later.  Since about Autumn of last year things have been dead.  Many of the pro property investors have steered clear of the market, knowing we are at the top of a bubble.

OK, so not many sellers have dropped their prices that significantly (although some I know have in order to sell), but there are plenty of would be buyers sitting on the sidelines biding their time and sellers getting increasingly desperate to sell/trade up.

I still come across some buying way overpriced two bed terraces, although this doesn't prove anything, other than there are still people sucked into the 'must get on the ladder at all costs' mentality.  The important thing is TRANSACTION VOLUMES ARE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.  The calm before the storm.  News of the crash has not reached the mainstream in North Yorkshire, although it soon will. 

The figures you show are as I would have expected in North Yorkshire.  As the North saw the latter part of the rises, so they will also be the last to see the significant falls.

Funny, see exactly the same down here, two bed terraced still going (or being advertised) for way over the top prices whereas top end and flats having problems. BTL effect I think still.

The link to the flat above is in a prime location (although a little small).

About 6 motnhs ago I mentioned a for sale sign going up just outside the kitchen window - top end, not exactly an area where you'd expect to see a for sale sign at all, yep still there.

An incredibly fragmented market where all sorts of things are happening that on the face of it are odd to say the least.

A note on the Land Reg figs - how many of the transactions are new build? How many are being pushed through with stonking cashbacks / deals / cars / generous part exchanges/ mortgage paid for a year etc and do those appear in the LR figs? NO.

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Volumes down, prices stable/slightly up...given that prices are set at the margin, and that however badly the economy is doing generally there will always be some people who are doing well, the ones buying at current price levels are those who are sufficiently successful (in money terms). Assuming that they haven't overstretched themselves, in which case the price level is unsustainable in any case.

The question really is, are current price levels sustainable at these reduced volumes? Is this a stable scenario? I certainly hope not, but I'm not convinced that the figures given here prove the case either way. Looking at the wider economy, though, I can't see how current price levels can be sustained given employment/IRs/inflation etc.

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Face facts mentlaist bears, there's no price crash - prices are up 4.8% on average in my part of the world.

So, go on you mentlaist bears, go and do your own research and tell me what is really happening in your part of the world !

I can't speak for everyone else, but I'm just keen to know what mentlaist means.

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I've seen some posts recently saying the LR have been skewed by the greater proportion of more expensive houses that have been selling and therefore it hasn't shown thre true falls that are really happening ....... !! yeh get real.

I've questioned people to do the maths and confirm this - no one has, so I thought I'd do it it my part of the world - good old North Yorks. The stats are below, make of them as you will.

This compares Apr - Jun qtr 04 to 05.

First 2004.

Detached = £269,829 - 1205 houses = 29.5%

Semis = £157,570 - 1240 houses = 30.4%

Terraced = £139,392 - 1184 houses = 29%

Flats = £133,365 - 453 flats = 11.1%

Now 2005 figures

Detached = £275,802 - 659 houses = 28.3%

Semis = £173,585 - 733 houses = 31.5%

Terraced = £148,196 - 700 houses = 30%

Flats = £141,192 - 239 flats = 10.3%

So, sure volumes are down, but so what. The important thing is that prices are up YOY, and they are up most for the less expensive houses. There is practically no change in the proportion of different price bands that have gone across the LR books.

Face facts mentlaist bears, there's no price crash - prices are up 4.8% on average in my part of the world.

So, go on you mentlaist bears, go and do your own research and tell me what is really happening in your part of the world !

You're Up North,

I hope this doesn't sound too condescending but perhaps I can offer you a little lesson in statistics - don't worry, it is free.

When you are looking at a time series of data you need to interpret the data very cautiously when the level of the data plunges suddenly.

So, for example, if you are looking at 100 observations each month and then suddenly the number of observations drops to 50 you need to be wary about the conclusions you draw on that data (since it is CLEARLY not directly comparable).

Secondly, if you are looking at data that can vary widely from one observation point to another you need to be careful how you interpret that data.

So, for example, if you were lumping all "detached" houses in an area together you need to be very careful how you interpret this information. I can point you to detached houses in my area that sell for £750k or £7.5 million and obviously which one sells is going to have a major impact on raw average sales prices.

The moral of this story is that you should be very careful how you interpret wide-ranging data, especially when the level of data coming through the pipeline has collapsed.

Indeed, if you were to take a "non-mentalist" approach, to use professional jargon, you might immediately move away from what the actual data tells you and start asking WHY so little data has suddenly started to arrive. This might actually tell you a great deal more than the raw numbers.

So, for example, if you were to find that the data level has collapsed because so much less of the product in question is selling, while at the same time the amount of supply available is increasing, then you might be able to get a much better picture of what is actually happening than by just looking at the numbers (which have perhaps started to paint an unreliable picture).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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