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Catch22

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See Chart

Most recent peak was 2004; next Low is expected 2009-2010.

The idea is to BUY in the lower white zone, and to SELL in the upper white zone.

Above is the idealised "roadmap", a cyclical chart showing where we are now in relation to past cycles. It is likely that the 2004 peak was also the top of an even longer cycle, so the downturn may be slower and the next upturn will be "sloppy", less pronounced than in 1994-2004. Also, the next expected cyclical upturn is likely to be hampered by poor demographics (an aging population, looking to cash out.)

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It is likely that the 2004 peak was also the top of an even longer cycle, so the downturn may be slower and the next upturn will be "sloppy", less pronounced than in 1994-2004.

That's our very own DrBubb !

But it makes an interesting point though - has property in the UK effectively been a 35 year-long bull market, with a 6-year (89-95) bearish period ?

And did that bull market end in Summer 2004 ? At the peak of when the baby boomers (already the property owning "class") decided that property was the way to fund their retirement ?

The more I look at it, the more the demographics do get interesting.

The salaries of young people simply don't stack up with today's house prices, and so as the baby boomers start to disappear then I can't see anywhere prices are going but down to adjust to the new demographic.

After all FTB numbers are expected to never recover to their historic highs etc, plus the fact that the children of the baby boomers are in a lot more debt than the baby boomers themselves ever were.

Maybe, just maybe - after this 35-year bull-market, perhaps we have now started a 35-year bear market (with a few bullish rallies).

Now there's a thought to end the day. :)

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That's our very own DrBubb !

But it makes an interesting point though - has property in the UK effectively been a 35 year-long bull market, with a 6-year (89-95) bearish period ?

And did that bull market end in Summer 2004 ?  At the peak of when the baby boomers (already the property owning "class") decided that property was the way to fund their retirement ?

The more I look at it, the more the demographics do get interesting. 

The salaries of young people simply don't stack up with today's house prices, and so as the baby boomers start to disappear then I can't see anywhere prices are going but down to adjust to the new demographic.

After all FTB numbers are expected to never recover to their historic highs etc, plus the fact that the children of the baby boomers are in a lot more debt than the baby boomers themselves ever were.

Maybe, just maybe - after this 35-year bull-market, perhaps we have now started a 35-year bear market (with a few bullish rallies). 

Now there's a thought to end the day.  :)

Excellent observation. The bull run in housing was driven by the boomers and without them pushing up prices a new reality will unfold.

Besides, the boomers haven't had the globalization pressure until recently, and that is going to change the living standard for a lot of people in the future.

Besides, I think the Internet is fueling these manias, as people have access to too much information. It has turned the world into one big casino, and the bust is just as big as the boom. The horror stories online about people losing their homes will cause the same type panic that we saw with stocks.

Going forward, I predict that this crash will be far deeper and far longer than anything we've seen so far in housing.

Cash is king.

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I'd agree with everything you said, rcarr, but wish to clarify your comment that people have too much information. In theory, you can't have too much information IMO (but then I'm a librarian, I would say that)

I think I know what you mean but perhaps closer to the truth is that people have had information, but have also lacked wisdom.

Discretion and wisdom are two qualities that have been clearly lacking in the housing market but both are attributes that are necessary to make real use of any information coming our way.

Perhaps I'm being pedantic!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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