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Fancypants

How Quickly Do You Think Irs Will Go Back Up?

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Todays papers have taken the view that the inflation figures mean "no more cuts for now" - i.e. rather biased toward the trend being downward

These reports will have been written prior to the MPC minutes coming out today showing that the committee was rather less unanimous than the VIs expected.

The real question is, how long do you think it will be before IRs start going back up, how far will they go, and how quickly? Inflation seems to be racing away now, that was a quite substantial lurch yesterday, and it makes for very bleak reading in that

1) oil wasn't the sole predominant factor in the rise

2) the latest big spikes occured AFTER the month studied. Therefore its a pretty good bet that inflation will shoot up again next month.

So although the media seem reluctant to face up to the reality of what this means, they have accepted that inflation is on the up big style (see references to open letters when it hits 3%). Now the average mortgagee reading that probably wouldn't understand why they should care about inflation - it isn't immediately obvious to many people, especially when the media are clearly uncomfortable with accepting the logical outcome of this (rising IRs)

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If inflation rises again next month then rates will most likely go up to contain inflation in the medium term, say in October. Given the price of energy inflation is not coming down any time soon IMO.

The BoE will not want inflation running out of control, and suspect Merv will be saying something along the lines of "I told you so", to the wimps who blinked under pressure.

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I think they will sit on their behinds so that that they don't look stupid.

Bit late for that, they already look stupid, they have already dropped rates too much in the past and then to save face allowed a huge debt/housing bubble to proceed unabated.

Now they will sit their as inflation blows up in their face and the statisticians make all the attempts they can to hide the real rate of inflation.

Boorowers crippled with debt will do nothing for the economy, savers and those on fixed income crippled by low interest rates will do nothing for the economy, but worst of all absurd bloated land costs will cripple business across all sectors and jobs will go abroad.

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I think they will sit on their behinds so that that they don't look stupid.

Bit late for that, they already look stupid, they have already dropped rates too much in the past and then to save face allowed a huge debt/housing bubble to proceed unabated.

Now they will sit their as inflation blows up in their face and the statisticians make all the attempts they can to hide the real rate of inflation.

Boorowers crippled with debt will do nothing for the economy, savers and those on fixed income crippled by low interest rates will do nothing for the economy, but worst of all absurd bloated land costs will cripple business across all sectors and jobs will go abroad.

aye, I know we've had something of an ongoing inflation/deflation debate going on here for a while... I really don't like the idea of the govt inflating their way out of this debt bubble, as I'm sure they'd like to do.

Thankfully, I reckon the banks (the real power brokers?) are unlikely to allow that to happen this time. They'll want their pound of flesh and no mistake.

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Does anyone really believe inflation was 2.0% anyway or that it is 2.3% now?

Even the news reported costs of running a house were rising 4 times the rate of "inflation" last week.

So if CPI doesn't accurately reflect the cost of existing the only reason for it is to deny pensioners and other vulnerable people in society on welfare the extra money to keep on living.

Yes that's right, they are taking money away from the elderly and disabled whilst awarding themselves 20% wage increases.

Welcome to democracy.

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``The market may take away the impression that King's position is not quite as strong as it was,'' said Dixon in a telephone interview. ``This is quite a brave thing for him to do. Still, the MPC is a democracy.''

@: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...ikh8&refer=home

aye, Merv's alright in my eyes at the moment. Brave enough to oppose the majority & also to stand up to El Presidente Senor Brown.

He also has a rather nifty line in concise and cutting comments e.g. "house prices are a matter of opinion, debt is fact" - I've used that one to good effect myself a few times! Class.

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That article puts "PAID" to some of the ongoing RATE cut nonsense

promulgated by TTRTR and others

I want to see TTRTR's comeback on all of this but he is conspicuously absent. Where is that masked man?

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That article puts "PAID" to some of the ongoing RATE cut nonsense

promulgated by TTRTR and others

Absolutely right.

After the recent cut we heard stuff from the bulls like "we are in a rate cutting environment" and "we are past the top of the rate cycle" etc. If the next change is up, then I assume the same people will be ready to admit that we are "in a rate raising environment" and that "we are past the bottom of the cycle". :)

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That article puts "PAID" to some of the ongoing RATE cut nonsense

promulgated by TTRTR and others

sadly, judging by the BBC article in the news blog (which will be one of the most widely read on the subject) - the popular consensus still seems to be blind to the possibility that rates are UP in the long term - even the "analysts" seem unwilling to accept this.

I do note that they have the token nutter at the end for balance, the chap stating that "this may be the only cut in the cycle" - I mean, what an absurd thing to say! :rolleyes:

I had a pop at the beeb the other day on here, but I am beginning to wonder if they are just doing a very good job at reflecting public opinion on the subject - namely the Canute like posture on the beach as the tide rolls inexorably in

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sadly, judging by the BBC article in the news blog (which will be one of the most widely read on the subject) - the popular consensus still seems to be blind to the possibility that rates are UP in the long term - even the "analysts" seem unwilling to accept this.

I do note that they have the token nutter at the end for balance, the chap stating that "this may be the only cut in the cycle" - I mean, what an absurd thing to say!  :rolleyes:

I had a pop at the beeb the other day on here, but I am beginning to wonder if they are just doing a very good job at reflecting public opinion on the subject - namely the Canute like posture on the beach as the tide rolls inexorably in

I can see at the next meeting, a couple wanting a rise again. What will be interesting is if brown's crownies want a further cut.

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I was going to start a thread to ask the forum what are the early signs to monitor

For Hyper-inflation. (this thread will do)

Stocks and shares markets can turn on a dime.

Housing market is like an oil tanker.

Hyper-inflation can rapidly accelerate and over-take Government controls easily.

Will it only happen if we get another ‘black Wednesday’ type thingy?

Or is our ‘sensible / responsible’ Government in complete control.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I want to see TTRTR's comeback on all of this but he is conspicuously absent.

Very strange that, especially as TTRTR loves the sound of his/her own voice.

Maybe one of his "tenants" had a problem that need sorting out. :)

Maybe he's off buying more property. :D

OR:

Maybe his mum's made him do a paper round to bring in extra some cash? :lol::lol::lol:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
That article puts "PAID" to some of the ongoing RATE cut nonsense

promulgated by TTRTR and others

Don`t blame TTRTR his guru is Roger The Boot Boy. :D

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I would guess that IR's will stay as they are until end of the year regardless of what inflation does, partly to save face.

It would look a bit reactionary to put them back up again next month.

Aren't they supposed to be proactive and plan a year or two ahead ? But they always seem to be one step behind.

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Bulls look away now! I posted something to this effect before, but as far as I recall, just before the last 2 house price crashes, there were 2 interest rate cuts? The circumstances then were a little different - higher rates to start off with and rate not set by BOE.

I'm sure history will repeat itself, but will it repeat exactly?

I agree with most here that a IR cut was the wrong move. Will the BOE make the wrong move again?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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