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Is This It?

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A few months ago someone asked for predictions as to when we could clearly state that a crash was in progress. At that time I felt the market was already a 'walking crash'. I made a guessed at August based on the somewhat trivial reason that newspapers might choose to undermine sentiment with lurid headlines during the holiday season (newspapers are always hungry for juicy stories at this time of the year).

Looking at things today, I wonder if September will be the real crunch month. Bad news is now flowing like water from a fire hose. Job losses, personal debt problems, a house buyers strike and worst of all, the prospect of higher interest rates.

I have always been a proponent of a slow house slide. Looking at the headlines today however, I am begining to wonder whether we could be facing something much faster and more devastating.

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Guest Alright Jack
A few months ago someone asked for predictions as to when we could clearly state that a crash was in progress. At that time I felt the market was already a 'walking crash'.  I made a guessed at August based on the somewhat trivial reason that newspapers might choose to undermine sentiment with lurid headlines during the holiday season (newspapers are always hungry for juicy stories at this time of the year).

Looking at things today, I wonder if September will be the real crunch month. Bad news is now flowing like water from a fire hose. Job losses, personal debt problems, a house buyers strike and worst of all, the prospect of higher interest rates.

I have always been a proponent of a slow house slide. Looking at the headlines today however, I am begining to wonder whether we could be facing something much faster and more devastating.

Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

Alright Jack

September is 12 days away, not next year.

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

That's odd. I have three family members who have all been trying to sell since the beginning of the year (two BTL flats in London, one house is Essex). None of them have had any interest at all and the two flats look like they will have to be cut below their purchase price in summer 2004 to get anyone in the door.

Yep, no sign of price falls then.

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

You are talking in past tense. I don't think there is anyone here that is claiming a crash has happened. Most people are claiming that one is starting or has just started.

There has been 8 years or so of increasing house prices, with the last few years being especially fast. What makes you think that anyone here is expecting them to collapse in an instant?

You are correct; the proof of the pudding is in the eating, but we've not finished eating it yet. So just wait until the appropriate moment and then say we were all wrong.

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I have always been a proponent of a slow house slide. Looking at the headlines today however, I am begining to wonder whether we could be facing something much faster and more devastating.

The house price slide will resemble a reverse exponential graph. A gradual, ever increasing downwards acceleration (over 3 years though).

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

I'd like to know who said the crash started last summer. I thought it was projected to start sometime between Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.

I think it should be AJ looking around - Its just starting to happen .............

:D:P:D:P:D:P

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

Actually, average house prices are up. This is easily affected by low trading volumes and a lack of FTB's for the bottom of the market properties.

M1: 2 sales, 1 @ 100k, 1 @ 200k (average = 150k)

M2: 2 sales, 1 @ 190k, 1 @ 180k (average = 185k)

Woohoo prices are still going up, even though they've fallen.

Or am I missing something?

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Yeah, Yeah, same old stuff. If, when, maybe, perhaps, next year...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. This crash just didn't happen. Take your nose out of books and reports and theories for one moment and look around. This 'crash' started last summer. Prices are up YOY even at this late stage.

:lol::lol::lol:

Worried are you?

You should be.

Edit: -

September - Reality sets in. Denial phase is over.

Edited by Culpability Brown

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Actually, average house prices are up.  This is easily affected by low trading volumes and a lack of FTB's for the bottom of the market properties.

M1:  2 sales, 1 @ 100k, 1 @ 200k (average = 150k)

M2:  2 sales, 1 @ 190k, 1 @ 180k (average = 185k)

Woohoo prices are still going up, even though they've fallen.

Or am I missing something?

It's also transaction volumes that have fallen. So it's more like:

M1: 4 sales, 2 @ 100k, 2 @ 200k (average = 150k)

M2: 2 sales, 1 @ 190k, 1 @ 180k (average = 185k)

Edited by newbie

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I rent a Semi detached up North and my 'attached' neighbour moved out in December of last year. I'm assuming that it was rented as a much older guy than the one who lived there has been coming round every couple of weeks to mow the lawn. Anyway the house was 'SOLD' about a month ago then a couple of weeks later a for sale sign returned. Yet the house has remained for sale at the same price on Rightmove the whole time! So, he has not 'lost' any of the equity in the house but he has definitely lost money every single month due to mortgage payments or interest lost if the equity had been invested in shares or a bank account. Its only a matter of time before he accepts a capital loss and reduces the house price to prevent the monthly bleeding away of his cash...and that is how the crash will pick up speed!

On the positive side it's been great having nobody next door these last few months as I met my new girlfriend in February and its nice to know that we are not being overheard late at night if you know what I mean! Good old BTL landlords!!

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My rough rule is when average prices go through the 30 week moving average the crash shall begin.

Extrapolating your data, can you project an intersection of the type you describe.

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Extrapolating your data, can you project an intersection of the type you describe.

I dont have exact figures but roughly if prices are below where they were a year ago then I think the bubble has crested and the downtrend has begun and is in position to speed up into a crash or multi-year decline. Have a look at the shape and duration of the prior peaks on the home page. Thats adjusted for inflation but the idea is there.

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I dont have exact figures but roughly if prices are below where they were a year ago then I think the bubble has crested and the downtrend has begun and is in position to speed up into a crash or multi-year decline. Have a look at the shape and duration of the prior peaks on the home page. Thats adjusted for inflation but the idea is there.

Good one! Thanks

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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