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sam

Yes, This Property Market Should Be Crashing

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Before i start, i am not a troll, i am not a vested interest, and i am no longer a homeowner, and i am not a BTL landlord.

Right, that is out of the way.

I have been very bearish on property for about 2 years now, i saw what happened to the dot com frenzy, and lived and experienced the pain of the last crash(89/95).

I have looked around me and seen average people on average wages, and then looked at house prices, seen all the debt building up, it just does not add up.

As far as i was concerned it was a no brainer, eventually the truth would come out, and people would suddenly realise that they were in deep s**t.

To say that this property market is resilient would be an understatement. i have read numerous articles on the possible coming crash, i have read boards like this for 2 years now and read about the hundreds of different triggers that are about to cause meltdown, and none have come to pass.

I am still bearish on property, but my one big concern is, how much longer can this go on for.

At the moment i am startting to realise that we could well have a loose loose situation, present homeowners who are heavily in debt suffer the death of a thousand cuts(stagnation goes on for years), and those sitting on the sidelines go on waiting and waiting and waiting.

I allways went with the crash or non crash options, i am now startting to think there could be a third option, even though i have no idea what that could be.

Whatever happens though, there is not a chance that i am going to buy at these prices(even though i could).

I admire some of you guys for constantly being able to wake up, log on, and finding yet another reason why the property market will crash, but i cannot help thinking that many of you are having as many doubts as i am now having.

How pathatic that homeowners and non homeowners are spending so much time on just seeking their own little bit of shelter, this Government should not be allowing this to happen, they have created their own form of class system in the UK, and that from a so called LABOUR government.

Sam

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Before i start, i am not a troll, i am not a vested interest, and i am no longer a homeowner, and i am not a BTL landlord.

Right, that is out of the way.

I have been very bearish on property for about 2 years now, i saw what happened to the dot com frenzy, and lived and experienced the pain of the last crash(89/95).

I have looked around me and seen average people on average wages, and then looked at house prices, seen all the debt building up, it just does not add up.

As far as i was concerned it was a no brainer, eventually the truth would come out, and people would suddenly realise that they were in deep s**t.

To say that this property market is resilient would be an understatement. i have read numerous articles on the possible coming crash, i have read boards like this for 2 years now and read about the hundreds of different triggers that are about to cause meltdown, and none have come to pass.

I am still bearish on property, but my one big concern is, how much longer can this go on for.

At the moment i am startting to realise that we could well have a loose loose situation, present homeowners who are heavily in debt suffer the death of a thousand cuts(stagnation goes on for years), and those sitting on the sidelines go on waiting and waiting and waiting.

I allways went with the crash or non crash options, i am now startting to think there could be a third option, even though i have no idea what that could be.

Whatever happens though, there is not a chance that i am going to buy at these prices(even though i could).

I admire some of you guys for constantly being able to wake up, log on, and finding yet another reason why the property market will crash, but i cannot help thinking that many of you are having as many doubts as i am now having.

How pathatic that homeowners and non homeowners are spending so much time on just seeking their own little bit of shelter,  this Government should not be allowing this to happen, they have created  their own form of class system in the UK, and that from a so called LABOUR government.

Sam

All to the point Sam, but a year ago we would have had people arguing "more out of sorrow than hope" that house prices were to go up massively before they fell, and six months ago that they would stay the same, more or less, till wages catch up. Now we have "death by a thousand cuts". Well, it's an improvement.

The price always catches up with the reality. It may not catch up as fast as we want it to, but it will.

Unlike dot coms property is an illiquid market, which means that it's going to be confusing both on the way down and the way up. This confusion is not the same as nothing happening, far from it.

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The last one played out from 89 to 95 , that's 6 years but everyone knew there was no need to rush out a buy a property by 1990. That's where we are now, nobody is in a hurry to do anything at the moment regarding property. The government and the VI are trying their level best to re-introduce a sense of urgency again but this will not work as people would either rather watch from the sidelines (rubberneck) or simply they can't afford to do anything anyway, ie they are spent out. This crash will be quicker than the last , probably about 3 years total , why?

Last time we did not have the BTL element to the same extent that we do now and the gentle slowdown that many are hoping for will not do for these investors. The GSD may be ok if you've just bought property at 10 times your salary and your planning to live out all your days there but just watch these "in it for the capital gain" BTLers. They'll go and the will be nothing to replace them. This GSD that every VI is praying for is the worst thing that could happen to the market.Add to that the background noise of debt and bang. It is happening now, just don't expect it to be a great spectacle, yet.

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Sam,

Dont be foolish.

What is a crash?  For me, sustained 1%+ monthly falls.

The earliest we can expect that to start is October.

Stay patient.

Hi Dr Bubb

just try and see where i am coming from, i am certain that many present homeowners that are heavily in debt are one day going to suffer for what they did yesterday, it could happen this year(which would be kinder), or it could happen in 5 or even 10 years.

The fact is many are in limbo, on both sides of the agument.

I know from reading your previous posts that you are fine with waiting, no matter how long it takes, but it is a sad state off affairs that many are waiting because they know what the real truth is.

Sam

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

SKY NEWS. Property website Rightmove. Around 118,000 new sellers CUT their

prices as estate agents had an ave of 72 unsold properties on the books. At the

same time completed sales fell to their lowest level since 1998.

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Sam,

I had a flat in the west midlands, it sold on Friday at 2pm, the GF felt sad at the sale, I just felt relieved.

We paid 36K for the flat in 1999, we sold at 65K, 5k below asking price.

In the meantime, I have been renting in the south east for the past 5 years.

I have been logging on to HPC for a while, I have used the information to feel better about renting.

For a while now, I have been thinking on the lines of what you say , i.e. where is the HPC ?

On one issue I do not agree with - I do not agree that the "government" should somehow be blamed and expected to "fix" the problem, after all the market is driven by profit, renting a home in the private sector is paying someone elses mortgage debt - renters are as much to blame for the current prices as much as any other VI.

I totally disagree that the state should have to create corporation estates to house the masses at a further burden on tax payers back.

If Britons ever want to be something, it needs the nanny state mentality to die off and allow survival of the fittest.

My plan is to wait until the new year and probably buy back into the market in the south east.

I am fed up being lost in renting and no HPC to look forward to.

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Personally I’m finding property prices sliding where I live, (I’d like it to go faster)

But it is crashing in slow-motion?

I agree, its very slow. Due to me constantly monitoring it, it does feel like

its not even happening. It is though. I see houses in South West have slippled around

5% from the peak. I need another 15-20% before I consider buying.

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On one issue I do not agree with - I do not agree that the "government" should somehow  be blamed and expected to "fix" the problem, after all the market is driven by profit, renting a home in the private sector is paying someone elses mortgage debt - renters are as much to blame for the current prices as much as any other VI.

What about the economic mismanagement by allowing the greatest credit binge in history? The government must take its share of the blame.

How am I, as renter, encouraging a housing bubble by needing a roof over my head?

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many are waiting because they know what the real truth is.?

Huh?

I am not sure what that means.

Sorry, i should of made myself clearer.

The truth to me, is that most people in recent years have just jumped on the bandwagon because they have seen house prices shoot up in value, or they have been scared of being priced out.

I think most have thrown commonsense out of the window, some simple sums would have show them that this so called economic miracle will eventually crash, and them along with it.

When i look at a potential house that i am going to buy, i try and look at what might happen in the next 20 plus years, most people these days look no further than next year.

The truth is that the s**t will hit the fan, many on here know it(as do the VI's), but it is not untill Joe Public know it that anything will get back to any kind of normality.

Sam

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Before i start, i am not a troll, i am not a vested interest, and i am no longer a homeowner, and i am not a BTL landlord.

Right, that is out of the way.

I have been very bearish on property for about 2 years now, i saw what happened to the dot com frenzy, and lived and experienced the pain of the last crash(89/95).

I have looked around me and seen average people on average wages, and then looked at house prices, seen all the debt building up, it just does not add up.

As far as i was concerned it was a no brainer, eventually the truth would come out, and people would suddenly realise that they were in deep s**t.

To say that this property market is resilient would be an understatement. i have read numerous articles on the possible coming crash, i have read boards like this for 2 years now and read about the hundreds of different triggers that are about to cause meltdown, and none have come to pass.

I am still bearish on property, but my one big concern is, how much longer can this go on for.

At the moment i am startting to realise that we could well have a loose loose situation, present homeowners who are heavily in debt suffer the death of a thousand cuts(stagnation goes on for years), and those sitting on the sidelines go on waiting and waiting and waiting.

I allways went with the crash or non crash options, i am now startting to think there could be a third option, even though i have no idea what that could be.

Whatever happens though, there is not a chance that i am going to buy at these prices(even though i could).

I admire some of you guys for constantly being able to wake up, log on, and finding yet another reason why the property market will crash, but i cannot help thinking that many of you are having as many doubts as i am now having.

How pathatic that homeowners and non homeowners are spending so much time on just seeking their own little bit of shelter, this Government should not be allowing this to happen, they have created their own form of class system in the UK, and that from a so called LABOUR government.

Sam

Sam

Some of your comments hit home to me too. However every month I see another sign. Every sign just picks me up. This week I went into the Halifax Estate Agency and was astounded by the number of venders now offering to pay your deposit. I realised this was going on with new builds. But venders. and this was in the Halifax Building Societies own property company (by the way I thought the B/S frowned on this sort of thing).

Eventually they cannot offer any more and they realise that it is the price thats is the problem.

I also think that what I see on the street isn't whats getting reported. I see offers galore and price reductions yet the reports say a small reduction. I cannot really balance the two. But I do see a great change in attitudes both in vendors and EA's therefore I am waiting because commensense says it's coming.

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My area (North Notts)

Bought house for 128k (2002) if these stupid increases over the last 3 years had not occured and we rose say 4% yoy then I would expect to pay circa 144k today.

But due to the sharp rises I managed to sell for 200k (good for me)

I am a great believer in the £ per sq/ft argument. The original cost per sq/ft cost me £90/sqft

My buyers paid £140/sqft Its the same house in the same location and had virtually nothing added to it.

Now I have posted on another thread details of a similar sized house (slightly bigger actually) that I am considering original price (mar/apr 05 of 195k

I have got this house at a price which returns it to 2002 levels

Price £149950 (£10k of extras included). £105/sq/ft or £98/sq/ft (without extras).

There are deals out there if you look hard enough, if we buy we are staying put until they carry me out, had enough of moving about.

Edited by toombs

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I agree, its very slow. Due to me constantly monitoring it, it does feel like

its not even happening.

This is very true.

During the last crash of 1989 onwards, I followed it only through the TV news and was far from actively pursuing the story, just catching the occasional piece about it.

No graphs, no long range planning, no daily bull/bear arguments. Looked at in this way, the crash was well under way before I became aware of it (that the newspapers/TV were hardly any more clued up back then than they are now probably had something to do with this also!)

To resort to a very old saying: "a watched pot never boils".

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Sam, my friend, you said that you've waited the last 2 years? Well the last 2 years that you have been waiting has had BOOMING houseprices anyway!

The fun is actually beginning now, as the price slowdown hits everyone and the wheel slowly turns backwards. I'd say at least wait another 6-8 months and see the difference and if prices are still the same in your area 6-8 months down the line, then you can go for it. The chances are though you will have noticed a drop in your area by then.

Hold out mate! You'll get there eventually!

Edited by Boom'n'Bust

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I posted this on another thread:

Time To Buy?

A house I had my eye on has just been sold.

It’s in the same street I live, £250k 4/5 bedroom extended corner plot

(plenty of land)

Only last year. 3 bedrooms semi-detached in ‘this street’ were going

(were going! ) for £250k. what a difference a year makes!

I am not too worried if the sale goes through because there are a lot of similar properties on the books in the estate agents windows.

And I’m tracking the prices dropping.

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WHAT'S THE RUSH?

The beauty of a falling market is, even if you are ready to buy, you have the option of letting it go because something bigger, nicer, and just a little bit cheaper will come along tomorrow. Do not be lured by the "perfect home" - another even more perfect home will be just around the corner.

The rush to "get on the ladder" when house prices were rising was VERY powerful. Not only were you competing with other FTBs, but also with a whole new army of BTLers. Now that rush to buy has been replaced by caution, which will eventually turn to fear and then finally panic. But it will take 4 or 5 years before we get to the endgame.

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Sam, my friend, you said that you've waited the last 2 years?  Well the last 2 years that you have been waiting has had BOOMING houseprices anyway! 

The fun is actually beginning now, as the price slowdown hits everyone and the wheel slowly turns backwards.  I'd say at least wait another 6-8 months and see the difference and if prices are still the same in your area 6-8 months down the line, then you can go for it.  The chances are though you will have noticed a drop in your area by then.

Hold out mate! You'll get there eventually!

Hi Boom'n'Bust

I will hang on longer than 8 months if need be, to me it is no longer about will it or won't it anymore. The simple fact is, house prices are overvalued(they are in my world anyway), i choose to have a life over the peer pressure in owning a property.

I will buy again hopefully, but it will be a home that i will want to spend the rest of my life in, and not for the sake of being able to say i am on the ladder again.

Property to me is like anything else, if it does not add to my quality of life then i do not want to know.

Sam

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When was the crash of the early nineties actually first referred to as a "Crash" ?

I think if it does go down by 0.5 or 1 % a month many people won't even notice it,

until they look round in 2 -3 years time and their house is only worth two thirds of what they thought it was.

As somebody else posted recently it will probably only be referred to as a crash after the event.

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I had no idea there was a "crash" in the 1990s - until comming on here.

I am mid- 20s.

I suspect most people believe houses prices always go up - is 100% true. My parents did not know about the crash either - because they were not buyng or selling or doing anything with the housing market back then.

I dont know if it was reffered to as the "crash" then - but looking at the graphs now - a drop of 30K or so for FTB property is a crash in my books.

Edited by trev

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When was the crash of the early nineties actually first referred to as a "Crash" ?

I think if it does go down by 0.5 or 1 % a month many people won't even notice it,

until they look round in 2 -3 years time and their house is only worth two thirds of what they thought it was.

As somebody else posted recently it will probably only be referred to as a crash after the event.

There is also the possibility that once investors realise that they can't get the yield and they can't afford the mortgage AND the Council Tax, they will panic and try to jump ship to shares or metal before everyone else does. If that happens then the whole edifice crumbles quickly. If they drop their rents in a socially responsible way, then it is likely to float down. I think I am going to change my login to TimeToDropTheRents.

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Dear Sam, and all other sams,

If the crash is taking a while to kick in, it is precisely because there are thousands of people like you (no offence meant personally), who cave in and buy because they see EA's offices with apparently high priced properties. They meet EA's who deny at all costs any concession to a falling market. They are taken in by OFFER FOR SALE PRICES. They believe all the rubbish they are fed by newspapers and property "experts". They are bombarded with VI spin everywhere they go. Their friends and neighbours describe them as "naive" and "misinformed". They are UNSURE of themselves and want desperately to see clear evidence so their hunch can be justified.

Throughout history millions of "obedient" and conventional people believe all the crap they are fed and rarely look at the evidence for themselves. Or they look at the evidence but fail to act on what is clear to them, overwhelmed as they are by the conventional wisdom which says "there won't be a crash".

Well Sam, just have the courage of your conviction and don't slide into the VI universe. You KNOW there is going to be a crash and there WILL be a crash. OK, it's not going to happen tommorow, or the day after, but it will happen.

It's not a matter of faith.....it's a matter of sooner or later.

VP

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Guest

You'd have thought that the government would warn people about the possibility of a crash, given the 1989 experience'n'all.

Oh, hang on, I forgot - government responsibilty burden got outsourced - it's now the Bank of England and our Merv - and he *did* say something back in 2004....

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Guest Alright Jack

Sammy. Make your own mind up.

This place is a laugh because it's full of loonies. Yes there are a few people knocking around that seem to know a thing or two but this doesn't make them right.

It's like a religious sect, a cult niche. Rather like Star Trek. It's mostly tosh and the views within this forum are outlandish to say the least.

As informative as this site can be, it is very one sided doom and gloom.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
As informative as this site can be, it is very one sided doom and gloom.

People being able to afford houses without financially crippling themselves is "doom" and "gloom"?

Just the opposite I'd say.

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Sammy. Make your own mind up.

This place is a laugh because it's full of loonies. Yes there are a few people knocking around that seem to know a thing or two but this doesn't make them right.

It's like a religious sect, a cult niche. Rather like Star Trek. It's mostly tosh and the views within this forum are outlandish to say the least.

As informative as this site can be, it is very one sided doom and gloom.

I don't see that many "loonies" here just differnt opinions to thoses shown on other censored and self congratulating boards,

there are two sides to every story its up to you to choose,

in every debate there are left/right, bull/bear, truth/lie some where in the middle is the real outcome,

this site is just giving counter spin to the selective reporting of the media,

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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