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FTBagain

Tomorrow Could Be A Big Hpc Day

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Tomorrow could well see Rightmove become the first index to go negative! Here is the graph!

I think about - 0.5% to -1%. :)

Could be quite a watershed, especially if the bad news continues with the inflation data that due out tomorrow has well.

House_Price_July.jpg

post-1956-1124015652_thumb.jpg

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Agreed, but last months figure was YOY 0.2% on a steap down slope. There would have to be a serious change in sentiment for the YOY figure to seriously buck that trend!

Of course they could cook the books, but I don't think Rightmove want to see asking prices going but. They know there owners (Countrywide et al) cannot sell at current prices.

It all points to a negative index.

Here's a thought. Countrywide could probably survive for awhile with falling profits / losses, but not indeffinately. It is very much in their interests to get this all over and done ASAP! Could try talking the market down. What better than to indicate a crash is underway!!

Edited by FTBagain

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Here's a thought. Countrywide could probably survive for awhile with falling profits / losses, but not indeffinately. It is very much in their interests to get this all over and done ASAP! Could try talking the market down. What better than to indicate a crash is underway!!

I understand mate, but can you explain how countrywide are going to gain by indicating that a crash is underway?

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Get to the bottom as fast as possible. At some point on the way down people will start to buy again. The inertia is with the vendors holding out for their dreams. If the EA's can get the message across that it just isn't going to happen and you may be able to get the market down far enough and fast enough for things to start moving before you go bust.

Personnally I don't think they have a scooby's chance of such a manipulation working, but they may well try it. Especially if their jobs are on the line. Remember Rightmove need houses to sell as well!

It is this sentiment with in the EA industry that will permit a negative index tomorrow IMO.

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Tomorrow could well see Rightmove become the first index to go negative! Here is the graph!

I think about - 0.5% to -1%.  :)

Could be quite a watershed, especially if the bad news continues with the inflation data that due out tomorrow has well.

Last August's drop was 2.0%. Therefore it needs to drop by more to make the YOY figure negative.

July 2004 £196,198

August 2004 £192,335 (-2.0%)

...

July 2005 £196,649

August 2005 ?

so the drop needs to be 4314 or 2.1% for yoy to go negative.

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erd and ianbe,

You both make excellent points regarding the monthly fall, but I would suggest that August is a quiet month every year because folk are away on their hols. Therefore, if this market really is slowing then the monthly drop should follow the same pattern as last year but then a little bit more added to the slope. The graph I attached on my first post supports this as it has be pretty steady all the way down. :)

DrBubb,

Again I agree with your point, but the share markets can often be reactive as well as practive in their reading of any given situation. That is how we have crashes in share values as well as HPC. The fact that your graph shows that the values of building firms is levelling out shows that the smart money has probably already moved out of that sector, indicating that the housing market is not in the best of health.

I still think we good have a very good day tomorrow. Only time will tell. :)

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Stand by for rather a lively week .

I may not be posting as often as I would like to as I will be monitoring the Dow Jones and FTSE very closely.

For the moment bears are in control,no doubt about it.

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Who knows what tomorrow's figures will be.

I look for a general trend, and that is peaking (last summer) and then falling (just started). There will undoubtably be false rallies on the way down, prompting the experts to assert that the worst is over, blah blah. In the last stock market correction it didn't go down in a straight line, and I don't expect the HPC to be all one way traffic.

Remember, it's the latter stages of a bear market that really hurts, ie: a fall of 20% when everyone throws in the towel and loses hope.

Something's got to kick start the forced-sellers situation and shake out all these amateur BTLers. I think it's going to be a combination of crippling personal debt made worse by no inflation and unemployment. Interest rates will not scupper it, IMHO.

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Something's got to kick start the forced-sellers situation and shake out all these amateur BTLers.

Continued speculation is what induced these prices rises on the way up, and in theory this is what should drive it down again.

A lot of comparisons have been made to the 89 crash and it does get mentioned on here a lot - but this must be the first bubble we've ever seen in the market that has had such a large speculative element attached.

Because of this, I do think that to an extent we are in unknown territory... :unsure:

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Continued speculation is what induced these prices rises on the way up, and in theory this is what should drive it down again.

Lets not forget that in the early 90's internet was for not as popular as it is today. I guess people will be more uptodate today than the 90's.

At the same time many triggers could be a reason, including terrorist attacks, high oil prices, inflation, interest rates, debt etc.

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Personally, I'll go on record and say that I think that Rightmove will show asking prices have risen 0.5% month on month.

There has been a lot of activity in my part of the world, with a lot of 'under offers' within 2 weeks of the property coming on the market. I have also seen a handful of properties coming back to the market about a year later when I saw them sold last year and the average asking price seems to be 10% up from last year.

There is no sign of a proerty crash - you guys are all deceiving yourselves.

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I have also seen a handful of properties coming back to the market about a year later when I saw them sold last year and the average asking price seems to be 10% up from last year.

There is no sign of a proerty crash - you guys are all deceiving yourselves.

And have you checked on nethouseprices that they actually sold? Or did they just fall through then return to market? I could ask a million pounds on Rightmove for a 1 bed flat in Tamworth but whether I could sell it for such a ridiculous sum is an entirely different matter - something thousands of potential UK sellers are also discovering about their stupidly priced properties right about now. B)

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I think IMupNorth does have a point as prices in most of the northern towns are eithier flat or rising and hardly any drops. I for one live in bradford and prices here are still rising and properties are still selling fairly quickly.

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"So Drbubb, in your opinion, when do you think the figures will go negative? "

I am on record as saying this will happen before year end- but anything is possible.

And I think it is reasonably likely many indices will be y-o-y negative by October

Thanks for your reply. Also Drbubb, listening to some, including myself who say that prices in the northern towns are either flat or still rising, what do you think is going to happen there? I know your not mystic meg or have a crystal ball, but being one of the intelligent people on HPC, I would greatly like to hear your opinion.

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Whilst not Dr Bubb, I am a northerner and round my area the market has gone very flat. I've posted on here before about good properties near where I live which have been put on the market at ludicrous prices at the back end of last year and have either not sold even at reduced rates or have been taken off the market. Personally I think prices are very vulnerable here and I wouldn't FTB for all the tea in China.

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I'm not Dr Bubb, but I can add something!

I've noticed flat prices in south manchester for 7 months. (This is the time I've been tracking). Some minor lowerings of asking price. Next to no sales in the low-end I'm looking at.

I think a telling thing will always have to be the local economies. For instance, Manchester's economy cannot possibly be comparable with London, so can't justify the same house prices. Similarly an outlying northern town / hamlet that has seen massive rises just because of the bubble, but with no really massive economy of its own I would expect to see lose out big time.

I think an interesting analysis to draw would be price ratios between areas, taking say, maybe 1998 as a 'steady with nothing silly happening' year. This might be a measure of what we get back to, so might highlight eventual levels of correction for different areas. Compare that against the ratios now.

There was a recent blog article on the difference between south and north having narrowed because of falls in London, but tail-end of boom further north.

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I think IMupNorth does have a point as prices in most of the northern towns are eithier flat or rising and hardly any drops.  I for one live in bradford and prices here are still rising and properties are still selling fairly quickly.

land reg figures for hgte show 600 sales in first half of year vs 2400 for whole of 2004 - prices down marginally - plenty to choose from but no capitulation as yet - EAs empty today

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THE DETAIL...

I track this index, so I went back to check.  Here's the data:

Mon Engl&W : London

A .. 192,335 278,519

S .. 192,316 276,664

O .. 193,536 281,064

N .. 190,329 275,394

D .. 189,733 274,343

J'05 189,509 274,089

F .. 193,830 279,867

M .. 194,962 284,242

A .. 197,539 282,215

M .. 198,147 284,071

J .. 198,642 282,118

Jl . 196,649 284,887

A .. 

S ..

Last year, Sept was the Same as August in E&W, and was lower in London.

So July to August needs a drop of -2.2%+ to go negative in England & Wales,

and -2.9+% in London.  This is extremely unlikely for August IMHO.

September's figure could do it.

BUT, as I have said before, I think that we will see sharp drops in the UK Builders shares 1-2 months before sharper price falls in the indices, since it takes a few weeks for cahnging sentiment to follow through into the Indices.

I am watch the Bank and Builders shares for clues to property now

Sorry drbubb, but was the above info for me?? if so, then what does all this mean as I'm more interested in the northern towns of England.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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