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libitina

Bottom Up?

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When the proverbial hits the fan, will it happen from the top down, bottom up or across the board?

Oh, and one more thing, will the media actually announce when it's official or will they stick their heads in the sand for as long as possible (or as long as the people holding the purse strings tell them too)?

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I have always expected it to be 'bottom up' (lack of FTB etc) but so far it seems to be 'top down' IMO.

However, I have no figures to back this up.

Do wonder, though, whether any top down movement may come from those older, wiser folk that have lived through housing crashes before and don't mind taking less for the sale in the knowledge that prices have further to fall.

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The only evidence of large percentage falls (in the order of 30%+) that I have heard of so far has related to high end properties in Sydney. This was reported on major TV current affairs programs in Oz a few months ago.

So, looks like top down to me.

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The properties most stubborn to move in price thus far, ironically, seem to be the FTB properties.

Until these starting moving in price downwards, the market will stay like it is now.

The market needs to "learn" again that FTBs ARE the market.

In the current climate, Estate Agents would seem to rather go bust than actually think about lowering the prices of FTB properties in any significant way.

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When the proverbial hits the fan, will it happen from the top down, bottom up or across the board?

Oh, and one more thing, will the media actually announce when it's official or will they stick their heads in the sand for as long as possible (or as long as the people holding the purse strings tell them too)?

Hmm are all of your topics going to have sexual connotations :lol:

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When the proverbial hits the fan, will it happen from the top down, bottom up or across the board?

Oh, and one more thing, will the media actually announce when it's official or will they stick their heads in the sand for as long as possible (or as long as the people holding the purse strings tell them too)?

if the bottom goes then the rest has to follow as no-one will have enough cash to move up

no-one can afford the top end anyway as 20% on, say £400k takes us to £480k and few have the salary to manage an extra £80k debt, even if their own property has gone up 20%

hence, all round melt-down

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When the proverbial hits the fan, will it happen from the top down, bottom up or across the board?

Got to admit that I support DrB's idea - I think it will start in the middle with the collapse of the 2 bed 2 bath appartments. This wil dive the bottom of the market down.

Of course, it's all a long time in the making so time will tell.

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I think this crash has a "pincer movement" about it.

at the moment bottom end is propped up by BTL muppets reluctant to reduce prices and some more muppets still buying.

the top end is falling,and MEW is slowing down because the higher-end houses are losing value.

...but here's the good bit......when Mr+Mrs MEW stop spending,the retailers will shed jobs....and the majority of the front-end jobs are occupied by people under 30,the typical FTB or BTL tenant.

...so this leaves BTL with severe risk of rental defaults.....when he cant pay his mortgage as the tenants havent paid up,he will be FORCED to sell up,but because BTL is such a widespread thing,a lot of folks will be in exactly the same position,at exactly the same time,causing a GLUT,and rapidly declining 1/2 bedder prices when it happens.

....I for one will be patrolling the auction houses when this gets in full flow,there will be some real bargains!

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I have heard that prices usually crash from the top down.

I would suspect the properties with the lowest yields would be first to go, so central London, Chelsea, Knightsbridge.

Trouble is that these areas are being supported by people who have little regard for fundamental value, and are buying for other reasons (the Ruskies & Arabs).

But it should still be top down, the Blair's place has apparently lost about 15% of it's value.

This fall will get amplified as it ripples out. We're starting to see major drops in many parts of London now, while the North is still thinking that the boom is on.

Edited by BandWagon

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I have heard that prices usually crash from the top down.

I would suspect the properties with the lowest yields would be first to go, so central London, Chelsea, Knightsbridge.

Trouble is that these areas are being supported by people who have little regard for fundamental value, and are buying for other reasons (the Ruskies & Arabs).

But it should still be top down, the Blair's place has apparently lost about 15% of it's value.

This fall will get amplified as it ripples out. We're starting to see major drops in many parts of London now, while the North is still thinking that the boom is on.

If Grimsby could be classed as the North, then the boom most certainly aint still on.

We've had 3 stories in the local Telegraph about the boom crashing down in the last 2 months. One of those even stole the front page headlines.

The latest one quoted an EA from Louth saying vendors are having to come down 7.5K from asking prices, then another quote from a Grimsby EA saying some vendors are taking 20% hits just to off load.

Yet still, there are some paying todays asking prices, but mainly in the "good" catchment areas.

It is these people that are supporting the market at the moment locally.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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