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Guest muttley

Riding The Ftse

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Guest muttley

OK,I'm going to buck the trend and predict a FTSE bull run into 2006....

I believe property is a poor investment,and will continue to be a poor investment for some years.

However,I believe the economy to be stronger than many HPCers give credit.

This suggests a shift of money into the stock market,where returns have been quite spectacular of late.

A long run of low interest rates has enabled companies to pay off debts.Even the pension funds are healthier (though still coughing up blood) than thought.

Am I alone?

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not alone muttley.I'm working along a similar asset-shift theory.

I don't necessarily agree that the economy will be in good shape,I think chances are we will be lucky to get 2% GDP growth for the next couple of years,and nearly all of that will be overseas earnings.UK consumer is well and truly done for until about 2008/09 in my reckoning....but supporting the stock market from any massive falls are going to be the shifters from props into stocks,unless we get a BIG terrorist attack or war with Iran kicks off,then all bets are off.

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I think so too. As you know FTSE is at nosebleed levels at the moment and due a retrace, but the uptrend is firmly intact, and I think the market will continue its good run into 2006. There's lots of money on the sidelines that will be poured into equities.

Incidentally, the pensions gap is beginning to get filled, through a combination of a rising stock market and companies increasing their pension contributions. I saw a report that the hole will be filled completely if the SM can manage another 25%. I don't see this as impossible over the next couple of years, and - who knows - as the wheels fall off the "property is my pension" bandwagon, we could quite easily be on the brink of another major bull market as the baby boomers start to panic and plough their money into the SM in the sudden realisation that they have but a few years of earnings left and f*** all to show for it.

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No body else thinks it will turn when the top demographic holders have distributed all they want to to the public??

Am i the lone contrarian with this view? Surley not?

Edited by sp1

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Guest muttley
No body else thinks it will turn when the top demographic holders have distributed all they want to to the public??

Am i the lone contrarian with this view? Surley not?

Of course it will turn,but there aren't enough chips on the table yet.I thought I was being contrarian.

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Yes Mutley,

not enough chips on the table = when the top demographic holders have distributed all they want to to the public..

May be my relectance to play the counter trend is becuase I still ytake some refuge in my Fundamental reasoning and find it easier to play that way......Need to work on oevercoming this...I'm digesting the 1st of 3 books i ordered recently so maybe that can provide progress.

sp1

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When do you think that will be?Before Christmas?

Your guess is as good as mine. However, I will stick my neck out and say that we have now seen the top for this particular leg up (@ 5377), and the market will lose a few hundred points between now and the end of September, before rallying in Q4.

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Guest muttley
Your guess is as good as mine. However, I will stick my neck out and say that we have now seen the top for this particular leg up (@ 5377), and the market will lose a few hundred points between now and the end of September, before rallying in Q4.

Pretty much what I'm guessing.When you said "retrace" I thought you had something more severe in mind.I've taken some profits recently,but I'm not in a hurry to reinvest it.

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For my maiden speech on this site I have to impart the news that the rally today on Wall Street is for want of a better word a "bull trap" set by nasty people like yours truly.

The 10500 level should be breached this coming Friday if my information is correct,so keep on toes until then.

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Your guess is as good as mine. However, I will stick my neck out and say that we have now seen the top for this particular leg up (@ 5377), and the market will lose a few hundred points between now and the end of September, before rallying in Q4.

I'm thinking along the same lines as you mate,pullback now to about 5k and then a late autumn/santa rally.

I'll put my neck on the block and go for 5500 at year-end.

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I'm thinking along the same lines as you mate,pullback now to about 5k and then a late autumn/santa rally.

I'll put my neck on the block and go for 5500 at year-end.

The bulls are rocking today (currently 42.50 up at 5311.80). There is a chance 5377 will be breached in the next few days.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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