Ft.com: House Prices Fall For Fifth Month

[Boom'n'Bust]

FT.Com: House prices fall for fifth month:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/07234096-0b18-11d...000e2511c8.html

FT House Price Index:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1d089640-fb60-11d...000e2511c8.html

[TheLittleGuy]

The last paragraph from the article:

Overall, activity appears to have recovered from a trough last November. Mortgage approvals by banks and building societies reached 96,000 in June, which is in line with the monthly average over the past 20 years.

[Boom'n'Bust]

The last paragraph from the article:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Read Fourth Paragraph:

“Lower transaction volumes and concern about the slowing economy has affected consumer confidence. Talk of an early recovery in the housing market seems very premature,” he added. The annual inflation rate was expected to fall further.

See? No point getting your "Little Guy" excited.

[Starcrossed]

Bringing transactions back to the average for one month is not really going to help right now given we have 12 months of unsold property clogging up the market arteries.

[DRS]

Yes so house prices are flat, no increases. That is not the same as a major FALL. If you are sitting pretty with a decent portfolio no big stress really

[Starcrossed]

They ARE falling, with regional variations. They are moving down towards 'flat' prices y-o-y but it is the consistent trend that is most important and the trend by any measure is DOWN.

[theChuz]

Yes so house prices are flat, no increases. That is not the same as a major FALL. If you are sitting pretty with a decent portfolio no big stress really

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its not the fall that kills you its hitting the floor.

[DRS]

Its not the fall that kills you its hitting the floor.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is also a popular misconception. Sensible investors have taken this scenario into account. If you speak to property investors who were in the last HPC, they will tell you yes they suffered but not many went to the wall. The one lesson they passed on was no matter what HOLD ON to your property because things will pick up again(eventually) and thats what most will do this time around.

[Starcrossed]

Take your point, DRS but not everyone that owns a house is an financial investor in that property. The BTL boom notwithstanding, this advice of long-term gains is not relevent to the majority of property owners and it does little to prevent drops in house prices in-between times.

People buy and sell houses for all sorts of reasons and it is these people that affect house prices. Most people on here are not so bothered if house prices are high again in 2015 as long as they fall 2005-2009.

Edited August 12, 2005 by Starcrossed

[theChuz]

That is also a popular misconception. Sensible investors have taken this scenario into account. If you speak to property investors who were in the last HPC, they will tell you yes they suffered but not many went to the wall. The one lesson they passed on was no matter what HOLD ON to your property because things will pick up again(eventually) and thats what most will do this time around.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its not a misconception it was a statement of fact used as an analogy, although i concede its would be theorectically possible to suffocate whilst falling if conditions were right and also i concede it would be possible to die through fear on the way down.

Right... keep this in mind

the professional BTL'r who have been in the market along time, who know what it takes to be a landlord, who know a good investment and get a decent return will be ok.

I dont think ive read on here that the whole of BTL brigade will be wiped out, that just wouldnt be possible whilst people still rent.

What we have witnessed in the past 5 years is every man and his dog jump into BTL, as pensions, as investments, as whatever, some of these people cant work out gross/net yeilds/ profits. It will be these people that go to the wall.

Its all very well you saying "no matter what hold on to your property" but surely on that logic no one would ever get repossessed? They get repossessed because they cannot hold onto thier property - this is the whole point. Like ive said more than once.. you can only hold your breath for so long.

[JST]

Its all very well you saying "no matter what hold on to your property" but surely on that logic no one would ever get repossessed? They get repossessed because they cannot hold onto thier property - this is the whole point. Like ive said more than once.. you can only hold your breath for so long.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Quite tight Chuz

So many landlords I know,stretched themselves to buy then re-mortgaged to buy even more and are now 'in it for the long term' because they're not making any money. All fatal combinations of course.

[DRS]

Its not a misconception it was a statement of fact used as an analogy, although i concede its would be theorectically possible to suffocate whilst falling if conditions were right and also i concede it would be possible to die through fear on the way down.

Right... keep this in mind

the professional BTL'r who have been in the market along time, who know what it takes to be a landlord, who know a good investment and get a decent return will be ok.

I dont think ive read on here that the whole of BTL brigade will be wiped out, that just wouldnt be possible whilst people still rent.

What we have witnessed in the past 5 years is every man and his dog jump into BTL, as pensions, as investments, as whatever, some of these people cant work out gross/net yeilds/ profits. It will be these people that go to the wall.

Its all very well you saying "no matter what hold on to your property" but surely on that logic no one would ever get repossessed? They get repossessed because they cannot hold onto thier property - this is the whole point. Like ive said more than once.. you can only hold your breath for so long.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes I agree thats a very sensible and balanced synopsis. Its just that I got the vibe from some(not you) that when the correction comes a large chunk of landlords will be wiped out.

[beenseendone]

Bringing transactions back to the average for one month is not really going to help right now given we have 12 months of unsold property clogging up the market arteries.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In the last 12 months theres been 7 months of positive average prices followed by 5 months of negative prices rises, the decreasing moving average currently stands at positive 4.0%. In the coming months as the numbers of positive prices increases, reduce to 0 and the number of negative price increases, increases to 12 then that will be fun.

Currently, historical postitives increases are cloaking whats happening. The really interesting stuff starts happening in month 13 (after 12 months of negative increases) when negative price changes build upon the negative 12 months earilier.

March 2006 will give us 12 successive months of negatives(assuming no months with zero changes, dont need to make any assumptions about positive changes). The truth will be revealed. Don't buy until then, when you will be able to point out to venders that statistics don't lie!

The moving average for the last 5 months is about minus 2.6, assuming same rate

for next 7 months then by 04/06 index prices wills be dropping minimum 5.2% PA.

The probability is that this falling rate will continue to increasing(+ve 2nd diff) and the annual chages by 04/06 might be 10%. As WC Grace would says "bring em on",or something like that.

Edited August 13, 2005 by beenseendone

[Clouseau]

In the last 12 months theres been 7 months of positive average prices followed by 5 months of negative prices rises, the decreasing moving average currently stands at positive 4.0%. In the coming months as the numbers of positive prices increases, reduce to 0 and the number of negative price increases, increases to 12 then that will be fun.

Currently, historical postitives increases are cloaking whats happening. The really interesting stuff starts happening in month 13 (after 12 months of negative increases) when negative price changes build upon the negative 12 months earilier.

March 2006 will give us 12 successive months of negatives(assuming no months with zero changes, dont need to make any assumptions about positive changes). The truth will be revealed. Don't buy until then, when you will be able to point out to venders that statistics don't lie!

The moving average for the last 5 months is about minus 2.6, assuming same rate

for next 7 months then by 04/06 index prices wills be dropping minimum 5.2% PA.

The probability is that this falling rate will continue to increasing(+ve 2nd diff) and the annual chages by 04/06 might be 10%. As WC Grace would says "bring em on",or something like that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

C'est vrai, le merde will surely 'it le fan..