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Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

You may as well predict that I will get run over crossing the road. Chances are it could happen one day but it would be a lot more useful for me to know when it is going to happen then I could do somehing about it.

I don't seriously expect anyone to know the answer to this for sure but it would be nice to hear a few opinions (I am sure there will be no shortage of opinions).

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Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

It is well known that markets can stay irrational longer than rational money can bet against it. The market is irrational when it will correct is not something I want to bet on.

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Chances are it could happen one day but it would be a lot more useful for me to know when it is going to happen then I could do somehing about it.

I don't seriously expect anyone to know the answer to this for sure but it would be nice to hear a few opinions (I am sure there will be no shortage of opinions).

I predict you will be run over on Tuesday the 22nd December 2005 at

08:43.

Hope that helps.

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Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

You may as well predict that I will get run over crossing the road. Chances are it could happen one day but it would be a lot more useful for me to know when it is going to happen then I could do somehing about it.

I don't seriously expect anyone to know the answer to this for sure but it would be nice to hear a few opinions (I am sure there will be no shortage of opinions).

I think the prediction was that we would see houses prices drop for the next 5 years or so before they started back on there way up? i see mentions of 9-15 year cycles?!...but an article i read said crashes last from 8-20 months. i dunno much about this stuff..

You bring up a very good point though! are you saying that you agree a crash will happen? most non crashers seem to think prices will carry on up forever...

Edited by sllabres

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

Try telling that to Nostradamus.

If you want a time frame, try 2005-2008.

A crash takes years to unfold (the last one did). Assuming that the process has aleady started, the above timescale seems reasonable.

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I think the prediction was that we would see houses prices drop for the next 5 years or so before they started back on there way up? i see mentions of 9-15 year cycles?!...but an article i read said crashes last from 8-20 months. i dunno much about this stuff..

You bring up a very good point though! are you saying that you agree a crashers will happen? most non crash believes seem to think prices will carry on up forever...

I think there will be some kind of correction but the downward trend is always likely to be a bit more sticky than the way up.

I can't say for sure there will be a crash but somewhere along the line house prices have to bear some relation to income so the other option is that I ask for a pay rise in line with house price inflation instead of RPI.

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A correction is happening as I write,with a gradual worsening towards Xmas 2005.

Next year will be awesome for the house price lunacy of the UK

Economic statistics shortly are going to be mighty grim,why only today the growth in France declined to zero.

We must be realistic and for the next 12 months I have adopted the mantle of a bear.

I'm happy having sold to rent and just biding my time

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Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

You may as well predict that I will get run over crossing the road. Chances are it could happen one day but it would be a lot more useful for me to know when it is going to happen then I could do somehing about it.

I don't seriously expect anyone to know the answer to this for sure but it would be nice to hear a few opinions (I am sure there will be no shortage of opinions).

Timing: There's some major re-adjustment to go through first, which will be very painful. A HPC will be just one factor: prices might be lower in a couple of years but will UK property look like a good place to put your hard-earned in the middle of a major recession (even if you can find a suitable place)?

In some respects the UK property market might resemble a game of musical chairs - with few forced sellers, the market just ends up where the music stopped and tough t1tty if you don't have a home.

Sorry not to be more specific, but the smart money is already out of UK property and in the process of getting out of the GBP. I've got no plans to return to the UK much before 2012, if ever.

JY

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Guest Riser

Well here's my prediction:

House Price Inflation negative by October 2005, ie annual rather than just monthly price falls. Crash peaking at 20% year on year falls by Spring 2007, and prices bottoming out 50% off todays prices by 2011.

Predicted time to buy for us STR expected to be around mid 2009, that only 4 years during which time the money we are saving by rentig will have added to our pot for when we buy B)

I think there will be some kind of correction but the downward trend is always likely to be a bit more sticky than the way up

Can't see why it should be more sticky on the way down, this boom has been made faster and higher by a large number of BTL investors. Once annual HPI goes negative I expect them to rush for the doors as fast as they can. I suspect a few of the more experienced ones are talking the market up while quiety selling their portfolios as we speak.

Edited by Riser

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A crash has not appeared, and although the foundations for it are being set Its way off.

People mistake asking prices being reduced as sale prices being lower.

What people ask and what they get as we all know are two very different things.

Land Reg shows rises since the same period last year in most parts of the country.

Volumes are down however that would be expected with a market having 00undergone a massive undersupply and an abundance of money to place in it.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ppr_q2_2005.pdf

Is a good KPI and the acid test.

So again we predict a crash, and again we will see small rises in the Next Land Reg report, but with lower volumes again.

I suspect we are bottoming out, cheap interest rates will ensure that the public are happy in their relative safety of home ownership.

I estimate late 2007 when the money runs out, interest rates rise to what they should be and two years later 2009/10 we have a full blown crash.

Prices I reckon will drop some 40% on the so called Character houses that require vast sums of money to keep up to scratch, look around and they are constantly being "Done UP" every two or three years just to make them habitable.

Decent modern conventional built properties with minimal maintenance are very out of favour in a rising market, but are as rare as hens teeth in a falling market where people dont get 30K for refurb work quite so easily.

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The much hyped (ableit only by Financial Times...) Financial Times House Price Index recorded a 0.4% drop in prices last month for the "average property".

Bearing in mind a "cruise speed" during a crash (13% or more drop per annum) would be in the region of -1.1 to -1.5% drop in value a month, so we are getting there. Some would say we are nearly a third of the way there!

So chill out and relax. This will take time. If its panic your looking for, It will be after Christmas.

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Everyone (almost) on this website predicts a house price crash. The problem with predictions of course is that they are only of any use if they are set within a given time frame.

You may as well predict that I will get run over crossing the road. Chances are it could happen one day but it would be a lot more useful for me to know when it is going to happen then I could do somehing about it.

I don't seriously expect anyone to know the answer to this for sure but it would be nice to hear a few opinions (I am sure there will be no shortage of opinions).

I believe and am willing to predict that you will be run over by the HPC bears within 8 hours. :D

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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TTRTR,

better get yurself a body-bag,cos I'm driving a tank!!!!

....I'm with riser on his prediction,2008 will be enough of a hit for me to consider getting some props.BTL is boogered well and truly!.....with any luck some of them will be smart enough to know that all this asset-balance long term crap is exactly what it is...crap!!

in today's economy,sector swapping is king!..just got to be sharp enough to know which wil give you good gain at any one time,and be ruthless enough to pull the plug once it starts to underperform.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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