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Inflation Estimates

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Filled up this morning. The price had gone up, at the same station, 2ppl in 1.5 weeks. Now that is real visible inflation!!

However, I don't think these rises will show up in the latest figures because the data used to calculate the figures will have been collected a couple of weeks ago.

So I think we will see inflation up to may 2.1% this month, and then, if the price of oil holds up, 2.2% next months.

Of course, the long term impacts of the recent rises will not feed through for some months yet. I think the BoE may have got their probabilities all wrong. By this I think that the chances of the up pressures on inflation actually occuring are far higher than the bank and others are admitting.

So where do folks think inflation will be in a years time?

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Filled up this morning. The price had gone up, at the same station, 2ppl in 1.5 weeks. Now that is real visible inflation!!

That is not inflation in the sense that we talk about.

Petrolium is becoming 'expensive' through fundamentals.

Real inflation (of the fleecing private savings variety) comes if employers buckle under wage increase demands to offset the pirce jumps associated with petrolium affects.

CPI could be volatile to oil pricing... this does not necessarily mean inflation is high.

Things are getting expensive in real terms for fundamental reasons. It is wholesale demanding more money as a result that is inflationary.

Watch wage inflation. That is the give away.

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Losing Faith,

I understand your and agree with your points, but few really do.

Real inflation (of the fleecing private savings variety)

Unfortunately, few people save at the moment. Instead most spend, so the impact of the CPI is very immediate terms of its' economic impact. Also, the bank is tasked with keeping headline inflation down because that drives wage claims!

If the CPI starts to rise, IR's will rise and so will wage claims leading to possible industrial action. This is often the pattern as we head into a recession. The headline inflation figure drives up wage demands. Workers see tthat their companies are still making big profits forgetting that the numbers are last years!! They are feeling the pinch, but the 'bosses' are doing well so they want a share of the action!

Hence, my poll. CPI help to drive sentiment.

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Losing Faith,

I understand your and agree with your points, but few really do.

Unfortunately, few people save at the moment. Instead most spend, so the impact of the CPI is very immediate terms of its' economic impact. Also, the bank is tasked with keeping headline inflation down because that drives wage claims!

If the CPI starts to rise, IR's will rise and so will wage claims leading to possible industrial action. This is often the pattern as we head into a recession. The headline inflation figure drives up wage demands. Workers see tthat their companies are still making big profits forgetting that the numbers are last years!! They are feeling the pinch, but the 'bosses' are doing well so they want a share of the action!

Hence, my poll. CPI help to drive sentiment.

From that I understand your interest in CPI increase.

I think that when wage inflation is outstripping interest rates, our savings are being stolen... as is very nearly the case now.

Saving rates ~ 4% gross.

Wages ~4% gross (wage increase taxable too of course)

Once it is clear that wages are rising faster than interest rates, I will jump.

About CPI:

CPI is going to climb. They may change it again to say, PAI (product appreciation index) and make it look prettier but it will simply reflect shit getting expensive because oil is expensive.

So tomorrow I will likely be able to buy less goods and services with my small amount of dosh but that is just too bad, as they say. It is 'my fault' for not buying consumer products whilst they are cheap. I will buy them tomorrow when they are expensive.

My reason is I don't fancy living in tomorrow's world without a bit of something in the bank - however modest this something happens to be.

While wage inflation (everyone else's dosh) is increasing at a similar rate to my savings, I am getting a fair deal, regardless of the relative cost of goods and services tomorrow.

CPI is a non-entity for me.

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Saving rates ~ 4% gross.

Wages ~4% gross (wage increase taxable too of course)

Once it is clear that wages are rising faster than interest rates, I will jump.

Of course, if rising inflation leads to rise interest rate wage inflation will eventually moderate due to job losses. Such is the blunt axe of inerest rates to control inflation.

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i find it very strange that in a de-unionized environment with very low wage inflation, people still expect to see industrial action to demand higher wages - simply because it falls very neatly into their stagflation scenario. history doesnt always repeat itself.

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Does anyone know where to find a index or statistic for the real average basic cost of living, for the average household? One that doesn't include things like dvd players or a plasma TV.

I know that for my family the cost of living - food, utility bills, council tax etc. has gone up well over 10% so far this year.

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I know that for my family the cost of living - food, utility bills, council tax etc. has gone up well over 10% so far this year.

Good point. It would be interesting to see inflation data on the basics only. That would be a far more accurate measure of the cost of living. Flash manufacture goodies are luxuries and are the first things to get cut from the shopping basket.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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