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House Price Crash Forum

Ig Index, Tfs Etc

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When I joined HPC the market was betting on a house price collapse .

I would of been a bear back then

Not so now , last time I checked IG index the September 2010 contract's mid point was "173k so just over £3k from where it is now. So people are betting short term on a small increase in the next 6 months.

Thats why I am a neither the market isbetting on a flat to small rise in the next few months.

If I knew either way I would be "putting my money where my mouth was".

I have never used my IG account to bet on house prices I would like to know ig anyone does bet on house prices.

I would be interested on "actual" trades made on this market. Not an aftertime type. but on the day.

I would also be interested if people were to update the price of the housing contracts traded by IG or TFS. The good folk at IG get fed up when I call up weekly ask the price on the House price contract but do not trade,

Edited by economiccycle
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I use IG to trade crude and sometimes indicies. Ive been thinking about trading house prices although not right at the moment maybe take a short position later in the year.

I'd be interested to hear anyones experiences trading house prices through IG. I know its based on the Halifax house price index but thats about all I know about it.

Edited by Mike2000
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I think their spread is too wide, and this sort of index is open to insider trading from people who know the figures before they are released. Based on this, I imagine the number of trades is very low.

I partly agree with you.

If you are saying the some of the good folk who work at the Halifax have a good idea what the February 2010 index will be now I agree.

As for September 2010 I do not think anyone knows.

In February 2009 I think very people though the index would rise in the next 7 months.

If you are saying that anyone who knows what the Halifax Price Index for the month ending September 2010 ( announced early October 2010) to within ~ 1% is delusional I agree.

If I were to state I think the Halifax price index will rise by at least 1% in the next 6 months a lot of good folk on HPC would ay thats quite impossible if they were to make a bet that they would fall I would respect their opinion.

Last time I called the spread indicated a belief that prices would rise by between 1% and 3% between now and September 2010.

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I agree maybe a small rise over thr next few months due to shortage or supply. Deluded sellers still think thier properties are worth the peak prices and and dont want to sell at the moment now they have fallen unless they have to.

This wont last though and a couple of months of falls might bring back the fear and start the crash? despite what the media says there has not been a crash, a drop but certainly no crash.

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I think their spread is too wide, and this sort of index is open to insider trading from people who know the figures before they are released. Based on this, I imagine the number of trades is very low.

A couple of years ago I looked into trading house prices on IG. I came to the same conclusion.

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At the moment the December 2010 contract is trading at 171.4 – 174.2

So from 169777 the spread in percentage terms indicate prices rising by between 1% and 2.6% between then and now.

I think anyone who “claims” to know house prices will collapse in the next few months, or boom for that matter is wrong.

I mean if you “knew” house prices were about to fall it is a license to print money.

I think nobody has such knowledge.

If one of the good people on HPC who knows house prices would fall in the next nine months would to sell the December index at 171.4 and state this on this thread I would respect their view.

If the poster above are telling me its impossible to call the market to within 1.6% I agree .

Despite a lot of hot air nobody has the bottle to do it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I only have a limited risk account so have to put a guaranteed stop in. This would obviously need to be above any short term rises in the next few months. Which would mean a deposit of probably a couple of thousand pound to a gain of about 5 or 6k if priced get down to 120k. I'm prepared to risk that much of my hard saved deposit. Not confident enough of a big enough fall this year.

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