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teddyboy

Why A Hpc Is Not Such A Bad Thing

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I did try to do something like this on the 4homes forum but it was never posted because I used a 'trigger' word. It was either 'scum' (my reference to EA's) or www.housepricecrash.co.uk. :o It shows which side of the HPC debate the media are on!

Anyways, a little bit about myself.

I am 37 and GF is 28. I like most people would like to start a family and therefore would prefer a semi-detached with garden. We have a "sizeable" deposit and earn £39,000p.a. joint income. WE CAN AFFORD SOMETHING.

I make no bones about it - we are in a fantastic position and realise we are fortunate. But let me tell you - I have worked 6 day weeks for months and months to get where we are and have no social life whatsoever. Can we afford our dreamhome? NOT A CHANCE!! :( For every 500 saved the EA's put them up 700!!!

In Liverpool, in my area of Aigburth, a 3 bed terrace is on the market for £169,950. A semi is up for anything from £225,000 to £279,000. THESE ARE ASKING PRICES. When checking out www.houseprices.co.uk I see that 2 terrace's in the same road as the £169,950 house, had sold in JULY 2005 for £133,00 and £140,000 respectively. Thats a difference of £33-37,000!!

So it bring me to my point!

I WILL NOT PAY EXTORTIONATE PRICES WHETHER I COULD AFFORD IT NOT.

This is why I think the prices are so high, and why I think the crash will be beneficial to US the generally public.

ESTATE AGENTS

Estate Agents in my eyes are SCUM!!! I cannot put into words the utter comtempt I feel towards them. I hope and pray that lack of sales gets that bad, that they worry about paying their mortgage at the end of the month. The dire situation they have put thousands of FTB's in over the last 3 years.

Many EA's have over the last 12-18 months forgotten how to read and have simply shrugged of the fact that whilst actual selling prices have been falling their asking prices have just rocketted higher and higher. I remember seeing a program about 18 months ago -Trevor McDonald or something - and it reported that there were 'rogue' EA's falsifying prices. Was there any arrests? Is this not fraud? Well the answer is 'NO'

For some reason, there is no regulation for these 'lies'. Its perfectly legal because its 'ONLY AN ASKING PRICE' they are not telling you to pay it. But recently DFS were sued by the trading standards for falsifying information on their 'never end sale'. They were accused of putting 'WAS £1999 now £999 SAVING 50%!'

The point being it was NEVER on sale for £1999. Is this no different? - the point being the house is up for £170,000 but there has not been a house sold for this amount EVER! I think they are the same IMHO.

My example above shows that the actual selling price and what is paid are substantially different. In fact 22% different. What they are saying is 'we want you to pay £170,000 for this house - but it is really only worth what someone is prepared to pay i.e. £133,000' DO YOU FEEL A FOOL? I know I would.

So why then do we feel that we should put in the so called 'cheeky offer'? Don't you think the asking price is the 'cheeky' offer? Tell them to suck eggs and pay what YOU want to pay - or feck off.

Dont be tempted to knock 5% or 10% off - be brave!!!!

MONEY LENDERS

I think all over it is far too easy to get credit. But the money lenders in the climate of the past 2-3 years have made astute decisions on what they lend. They know that If I could not afford to pay my mortgage - that they had THEIR money secured in a thriving housing market and were onto a winner. I CALL THIS IRRESPONSIBLE LENDING and it was upto the government or the BOE to do something about it. The figures out in the past week show that Bad debt is at a high and COUNTRYWIDE had reported a 89% drop in sales from this time last year - LAUGH - I almost PISSED myself.

This is GOOD NEWS for all. Mortgage lenders will be a lot more cautious now that their fingers have been burnt. Those BTL customers have slowly disappeared which helps things, coz they would pay anything for houses. In this declining market I think that the lenders will go for a 'SAFE BET' rather than a risky bad debt. If the assett depreciates.

BTW Buy to Let should be banned until the market stabilises.

ATTITUDE

Let me tell you - 'Buyers think like buyers and sellers think like sellers'. Obvious statement you might say, but it is something that is stalling the slowdown a great deal.

Lets give an example;

My brother has a terrace that is up for sale for £168,000. The house he likes is up for sale for £220,000. That is a shortfall of £52,000. He tells me that he CANNOT afford to move unless he gets £160,000.

What he fails to take into account is £160,000 is 95% of his asking price. If he offers 95% of the asking price of the house he likes he would get it for £209,000. The shortfall now is £49,000 - HE IS BETTER OFF!!!!!

Unfortunately, those EA's again plant this figure into sellers heads and they feel that they are really losing money that they never had. The sellers are not prepared to drop their price coz they falsely feel that they need the TOP price to buy their house at a TOP PRICE. Get real! Estate agents and Sellers are not controlling the market - WE ARE - the buyers.

Sellers need to understand that they will also be buyers (in most cases) and MUST learn that it is an asking price. I think the majority of HONEST people would say that the asking price of their houses, in their areas, are 'not' worth it!

THE CRASH

I am getting rather pissed with people saying 'there will be no crash'. Main reason: They have nothing to back it up!!! All Mortage Lenders, Estate Agents and Homeowners will say there is no crash because they all have a vested interest. Get you information from the people that count.

The economists.

The facts are: Bad debt is at all time high - Petrol prices have wiped out the 0.25% fall in interest rates - Sales of houses are at 10 year low - houses are taking longer to sell - there is a saturated market - EA's are not being realistic on prices - Sellers are not acepting lower offers coz the EA has convinced them that they will get loads for their house - House prices are at 6-7 times the average wage - The high street is suffering.

This leads to slowdown. The BOE HAS to balance its books. Although not popular - they will IMHO have to raise interest rates. If you look at the graph that shows house price trend through the years it shows that where there are peaks there are troughs.

I believe there will be a crash - as the prices start to drop - lenders are more wary as their collateral is depreciating, peple see their dream house falling in price and will start to accept lower offers, Buy- to-Lets get out of the market as they are buying negative equity, Buyers will offer lower prices coz they dont want to pay £100,000 for a house that may be worth 80k in 2 years!!!

THIS IS NOT A BAD THING!!

Lets give an ideal scenario: Let's knock 40% off all house (across the board)

Terrace was £100,000 now £60,000

Semi was £160,000 now £96,000

Detatched was £250,000 now £150,000

Couple A buy the terrace - Couple B Sell the terrace and buy the Semi - Couple C sell the semi and buy the Detatched.

At todays prices:

Couple A Spend £100,000 to get on rung 1

Couple B Spend £60,000 to get on rung 2

Couple C Spend £90,000 to get on rung 3

At reduced prices: AFTER A CRASH

Couple A Spend £60,000 to get on rung 1 - £40,00 better off

Couple B Spend £36,000 to get on rung 2 - £24,00 better off

Couple C Spend £54,000 to get on rung 3 - £36,000 better off

Everyone is a winner and all will have extra money in their pocket - I.E. IT'S AFFORDABLE!!!

BRING ON THE CRASH - WE WILL ALL BENEFIT

Im getting tired so I will finish for now - If there is anybody who would like to dispute this and say there is no crash - FFS back it up with evidence!!!!

Edited by teddyboy

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I did try to do something like this on the 4homes forum but it was never posted because  I used a 'trigger' word. It was either 'scum' (my reference to EA's) or www.housepricecrash.co.uk.  :o  It shows which side of the HPC debate the media are on!

[snip]

You are dead right about the irresponsible lending. Even 5 years ago I felt I was competing with people who were willing to get into far more debt than me (or daft enough).

Welcome to the site.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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