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Anyone Watch Newsnight Just Now?


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yes, a massive one just when QE came out. they both said QE would fail though.

Thanks, I thought I recognised him. If he had a go at the man who said Brown should keep spending then I'd like to shake his hand, although I can't really get my head round how he could oppose both Stysh*ts and Halligan.

Edited by The Last Bear
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Thanks, I thought I recognised him. If he had a go at the man who said Brown should keep spending then I'd like to shake his hand, although I can't really get my head round how he could oppose both Stysh*ts and Halligan.

Stiglitz says keep borrowing and spending.

Halligan says we're moving to hyper inflation now.

Both are wrong. We should stop borrowing and cut costs.

We are in deflation.

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Halligan is a journalist, I wanted to write moron but decided against it. I think we're in long run deflation now having made every mistake that Japan did. RThe first mistake was not to spot deflationary trends in late 07/early 08. The next mistake was to start QE too late, in mid 09 and the the next one is to continue QE and low rates in 2010. Complete replay of Japan experience, although years are different.

Stiglitz says keep borrowing and spending.

Halligan says we're moving to hyper inflation now.

Both are wrong. We should stop borrowing and cut costs.

We are in deflation.

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Stiglitz says keep borrowing and spending.

Halligan says we're moving to hyper inflation now.

Both are wrong. We should stop borrowing and cut costs.

We are in deflation.

Thanks for the summary. Are we in deflation or bi-flation? Look at the price of used cars (see off-topic), food and other essentials.

Halligan is a journalist, I wanted to write moron but decided against it. I think we're in long run deflation now having made every mistake that Japan did. RThe first mistake was not to spot deflationary trends in late 07/early 08. The next mistake was to start QE too late, in mid 09 and the the next one is to continue QE and low rates in 2010. Complete replay of Japan experience, although years are different.

My view is there should have been no QE, no manipulation at all. Manipulation makes it worse and longer.

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Thanks for the summary. Are we in deflation or bi-flation? Look at the price of used cars (see off-topic), food and other essentials.

My view is there should have been no QE, no manipulation at all. Manipulation makes it worse and longer.

there is no such thing as bi-flation, if its the purchasing value of money you are looking at.

supply and demand for different products...yes.

what you are seeing is the BUST....some prices go up some go down.

what should be happening for the bust to complete is that items bought on credit should go down, and those on cash should go up, eg, houses down, commercial property down, food and everyday items up.

overall, a person with cash in his pocket should be able to buy more than he could last week.

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there is no such thing as bi-flation, if its the purchasing value of money you are looking at.

supply and demand for different products...yes.

what you are seeing is the BUST....some prices go up some go down.

what should be happening for the bust to complete is that items bought on credit should go down, and those on cash should go up, eg, houses down, commercial property down, food and everyday items up.

overall, a person with cash in his pocket should be able to buy more than he could last week.

What the reason for a price action is does not concern me, the effect is the same, bi-flation is a good shorthand word for it. But, that was an interesting deeper analysis from you.

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What the reason for a price action is does not concern me, the effect is the same, bi-flation is a good shorthand word for it. But, that was an interesting deeper analysis from you.

for those who like to call bi-flation, they may as well call it multi-flation....the notion that prices of different goods change is a measure of inflation on just two levels is mad....even cars have different "inflations" between brands.

I like to stick to the "proper" definition of inflation....the amount of money v the amount of wealth in the economy.

so increase money by x and wealth is increased by y, and y is less than x, then the difference in percentage terms is the inflation.

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for those who like to call bi-flation, they may as well call it multi-flation....the notion that prices of different goods change is a measure of inflation on just two levels is mad....even cars have different "inflations" between brands.

I like to stick to the "proper" definition of inflation....the amount of money v the amount of wealth in the economy.

so increase money by x and wealth is increased by y, and y is less than x, then the difference in percentage terms is the inflation.

Fair enough, and I did just type "multi-flation" in the post before and then corrected myself as it is as you say equally meaningless.

Edited by The Last Bear
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Fair enough, and I did just type "multi-flation" in the post before and then corrected myself as it is as you say equally meaningless.

but, as you say, the term Bi-flation has a certain "reality" to how it all looks. dont mention it to the BBC or it will be everywhere:lol:

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but, as you say, the term Bi-flation has a certain "reality" to how it all looks. dont mention it to the BBC or it will be everywhere:lol:

Yeah, they will then start talking about it as if it was always in the dictionary or they invented the word. We should really plant a completely false premise on HPC and see how quickly the media mentions it as fact; something like the gold to clingfilm ratio suggests a stagnation in 10-year-gilts, etc.

(A quick crawl of Google shows the word I thought we had jointly invented has been used on HPC many times! Multiflation!

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=multiflation&btnG=Search&meta=&aq=f&oq= :) )

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Yeah, they will then start talking about it as if it was always in the dictionary or they invented the word. We should really plant a completely false premise on HPC and see how quickly the media mentions it as fact; something like the gold to clingfilm ratio suggests a stagnation in 10-year-gilts, etc.

(A quick crawl of Google shows the word I thought we had jointly invented has been used on HPC many times! Multiflation!

http://www.google.co...&meta=&aq=f&oq= :) )

yes, a new meme.....Im trying to think of one for a business startup I am working on, with thousands of competitors, I need something sticky.

like explosive in a sock covered in grease...

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Nationalist - I do not necessarily agree with the other views on your blog, but I find it hard to dismiss this notion:

If input prices are going up at 8.4 percent a year, how long before output prices, ie the prices in the shops, are doing the same? The first must feed through to the second in fairly short order. Of course, the cost of goods is more than just the cost of material and fuel - there are wages, rents, taxes and such to pay. But it's not like rents and taxes are going down. There is some scope for reducing the wage bill. Everyday seems to bring more mass-layoffs. However most of the rise in input prices is coming our way shortly.

The Bank of England has said it will not QE anymore for now. That's good, but frankly it looks like it really needs to be tightening monetary policy. Yesterday's interest rate decision was: hold at 0.5%, which doesn't seem to be addressing the issue of incipient inflation.

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for those who like to call bi-flation, they may as well call it multi-flation....the notion that prices of different goods change is a measure of inflation on just two levels is mad....even cars have different "inflations" between brands.

I like to stick to the "proper" definition of inflation....the amount of money v the amount of wealth in the economy.

so increase money by x and wealth is increased by y, and y is less than x, then the difference in percentage terms is the inflation.

If we look at the total amount of money sloshing around (including bank credit) in the global economy then that certainly has fallen, because bank credit/lending has declined.

However on the other side of the in/deflation equation, supply of goods and services has also fallen and there's also been a very large increase in base money due to the massive amount of printing that's been going on which has helped reduce the scale of overall money supply contraction.

It's pretty clear from the CPI and RPI indices that the price of a lot of stuff is on the increase so from a consumer point of view we are experiencing effects more akin to inflation than deflation. In the financial stratosphere commodities are riding high, the markets have bounced sharply off their lows and house price falls have reversed somewhat.

So not quite the deflationary scenario which we have been told is happening. Sooner or later, all that newly created money is going to be leveraged and then there will be no doubt about what is going on.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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