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MEtallic

All The Trends Are Negative

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All the trends are pointing in the right direction for a housing crash:

1. Oil at $64/barrel and rising.....higher petrol prices and prices for finished goods, due to transport and packaging.

2. 1 trillion in personal debts

3. Sharply rising bankruptcies

4. Rising unemployment

5. Sharply rising repossessions

6. Loads of rental properties on the market

7. Increasing council tax

8. Probably increasing income tax to pay for all the recent government expenditure on health, Iraq, education and terrorism

Does this paint a rosy picture? More like a house of cards!

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All the trends are pointing in the right direction for a housing crash:

1. Oil at $64/barrel and rising.....higher petrol prices and prices for finished goods, due to transport and packaging.

2. 1 trillion in personal debts

3. Sharply rising bankruptcies

4. Rising unemployment

5. Sharply rising repossessions

6. Loads of rental properties on the market

7. Increasing council tax

8. Probably increasing income tax to pay for all the recent government expenditure on health, Iraq, education and terrorism

Does this paint a rosy picture? More like a house of cards!

Add this one, often overlooked:

50% of tomorrow's youngsters graduating with about £20k of student loan debt, paid out of their take home pay. A demographic timebomb. (also possible compulsory pension contributions) :P

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All the trends are pointing in the right direction for a housing crash:

1. Oil at $64/barrel and rising.....higher petrol prices and prices for finished goods, due to transport and packaging.

2. 1 trillion in personal debts

3. Sharply rising bankruptcies

4. Rising unemployment

5. Sharply rising repossessions

6. Loads of rental properties on the market

7. Increasing council tax

8. Probably increasing income tax to pay for all the recent government expenditure on health, Iraq, education and terrorism

Does this paint a rosy picture? More like a house of cards!

Yeah, I agree there are a lot of negatives, thought I might put some positives forward for the BULLS

1. 0.25 interest cut

2. SIPPS next year

3. Sellers offering to pay deposit

4. Banks it would seem will lend loads of money to anyone

Thats four positives against your eight plus the student debt = 9 Negatives

My money is on the bears presently.

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Yeah, I agree there are a lot of negatives, thought I might put some positives forward for the BULLS

1. 0.25 interest cut

2. SIPPS next year

3. Sellers offering to pay deposit

4. Banks it would seem will lend loads of money to anyone

Thats four positives against your eight plus the student debt = 9 Negatives

My money is on the bears presently.

I reckon when things start to bite your point 4 will be reversed by the banks, making it 10-3.

Always good to have a little balance though.

NDL

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All the trends are pointing in the right direction for a housing crash:

1. Oil at $64/barrel and rising.....higher petrol prices and prices for finished goods, due to transport and packaging.

2. 1 trillion in personal debts

3. Sharply rising bankruptcies

4. Rising unemployment

5. Sharply rising repossessions

6. Loads of rental properties on the market

7. Increasing council tax

8. Probably increasing income tax to pay for all the recent government expenditure on health, Iraq, education and terrorism

Does this paint a rosy picture? More like a house of cards!

Also, rates are in a rising cycle in the dominant world economy (US)

frugalista

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Yeah, I agree there are a lot of negatives, thought I might put some positives forward for the BULLS

2. SIPPS next year

I think there might be a bit of a speculative premium priced in currently which believes that the SIPPS changes will create a rush of new demand. When this fails to materialise, after April 1st '06, the pemium will fade away. So the SIPPS thing could actually be a negative.

3. Sellers offering to pay deposit

That's just an indication of desperation, not an indication that prices might rise. In fact you could say it is a hidden price fall.

frugalista

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Heartily agree with that last point Frugalista - if they can afford to pay the deposit hen why not just knoco it off the price?

Reason, it would force down the price of comparable 2nd hand properties, and so on and so on :D

Greed is bad

ABB

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I reckon when things start to bite your point 4 will be reversed by the banks, making it 10-3.

Always good to have a little balance though.

NDL

Yeah, I agree, especially as banks have just recently written off 3bn debt.

However, it would seem that denial is still very much around for not only the BULLS but those people/potential buyers who appear not to be aware of some of the issues.

So to try to get the message across, thought I would take the opportunity of trying to put a balanced view across.

With regard to the SIPPS, I believe that will depend on what happens over the next six months. If property investment is perceived as so last year and a bit dodgy ie poor yields and no capital investment, then maybe more investment will go elsewhere on the stockmarket assuming that the OIL CRISIS does not raise its ugly head like it did in the 70s.

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Heartily agree with that last point Frugalista  - if they can afford to pay the deposit hen why not just knoco it off the price?

Reason, it would force down the price of comparable 2nd hand properties, and so on and so on :D

Greed is bad

ABB

If I were a FTB, (which I am not, always rented for many years and will continue to rent) a new flat is on market for 150K with 15K of as deposit to attract me to buy, I still could not afford £135K mortgage, because I only earn £19.500 a year.

Now if the new properties are difficult to sell because of affordabilty issues and lack of BTLs, then I believe prices of new homes need to be realisticly priced to sell.

So I agree with you, if this happens then second hand homes should reduce if price.

By the way, I like your tone.

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All the trends are pointing in the right direction for a housing crash:

1. Oil at $64/barrel and rising.....higher petrol prices and prices for finished goods, due to transport and packaging.

2. 1 trillion in personal debts

3. Sharply rising bankruptcies

4. Rising unemployment

5. Sharply rising repossessions

6. Loads of rental properties on the market

7. Increasing council tax

8. Probably increasing income tax to pay for all the recent government expenditure on health, Iraq, education and terrorism

Does this paint a rosy picture? More like a house of cards!

Pfffff, you're forgetting it's different this time. You can just print pretend payslips and credit your way to freedom! Yeeeeehaaaaa!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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