Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
justanewbie

Land Reg --- Prices Should Have Gone Up!

Recommended Posts

If there are now far fewer FTBs buying houses - at the lower

end of the market, then the average house price should

HAVE RISEN QUITE SHARPLY !!!

and didn't.

Ergo, the values of the houses which ARE selling,

that is middle to top houses, has......

FALLEN !!

n'est-ce pas ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If there are now far fewer FTBs buying houses - at the lower

end of the market, then the average house price should

HAVE RISEN QUITE SHARPLY !!!

and didn't.

Ergo, the values of the houses which ARE selling,

that is middle to top houses, has......

FALLEN !!

n'est-ce pas ?

I like your thinking. Not just because it's quite bearish but actaully because its a sensible interpretation of the statisitics. Nice one.

I would be interesting to get more of an idea of what types of houses were sold as well as the average prices. That might confirm or deny your hypothesis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If there are now far fewer FTBs buying houses - at the lower

end of the market, then the average house price should

HAVE RISEN QUITE SHARPLY !!!

and didn't.

Ergo, the values of the houses which ARE selling,

that is middle to top houses, has......

FALLEN !!

n'est-ce pas ?

On first look, this report does give an indication of each type of property by type ie detached /terraced etc and it shows pretty healthy gains across the board which might lead people to think that your argument is incorrect.

Having said that your point of the lack of FTB coupled with a general lack of activity in the lower, sub 250k, end of the market will still hold true across all categories listed. This coupled with the fact that these land reg figures generally lag about 3-6 months behind what is really happenning on the streets all bodes well that the HPC is well and trully under way..enjoy the ride.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If there are now far fewer FTBs buying houses - at the lower

end of the market, then the average house price should

HAVE RISEN QUITE SHARPLY !!!

and didn't.

Ergo, the values of the houses which ARE selling,

that is middle to top houses, has......

FALLEN !!

n'est-ce pas ?

You are clutching at straws, old lad !!

Go onto the LR web site download some data, do the numbers and then come back and tell us what the real picture is, rather than just flying kites.

;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can anyone confirm if there is any type of adjustment made when coming up with the figures. If there is not then justanewbie has a good point as obviously a higher portion of houses sold will be higher up the ladder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are clutching at straws, old lad !!

Go onto the LR web site download some data, do the numbers and then come back and tell us what the real picture is, rather than just flying kites.

;)

Hi,

That would be interesting to see how the figures pan out but someone has to sacrifice quite a bit of time I guess to get it done.

Do you want some anecdotals in the meantime. Checkout the link below. You can see these two flats from my house, so I guess I've walked past them at least twice a day, 50 weeks a year, for the past five years. They went on the market about 15 months ago at £159,000 each. I know because, as I say, I live across the road from them and one of the NZ girls in our office was renting one and was interested in how much one might cost to buy as a little home near the city. She's from NZ so the concept of killing yourself to own a shoebox as your main residence was alien to her. So I went onto the web for her to the agents site, needless to say I shouldn't have told her while she was sipping a drink.

They have both been at £119,000 for about six months now. Lying idle, not rented out, not sold. Hummm, maybe, I don't know, at a long shot, just maybe, nobody can afford to buy them in that bracket? Let's see how much they fetch six months from now, 'cos they clearly are not going to sell at that price. Maybe £89,000? (3 x an average salary) Given it's a pleasant area closeish to the city, even though it's very small? Not bad, about a 45% fall in 18 months by that stage?

I am sure there are ways you can verify what I am showing you here if you really do not believe me but honestly, I can see them from my back bedroom window. I've lived here 5 years! Try telling me things are not falling! And yes, a falling property market doesn't mean disaster - a guy today made an good point, we took a 50% fall in share investments in the dot.com a few years ago with meltdown. Other countries in bubble deflation are handling it OK. There you have it. :rolleyes:

http://www.findaproperty.com/agent.aspx?ag...prop&pid=140254

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can anyone confirm if there is any type of adjustment made when coming up with the figures. If there is not then justanewbie has a good point as obviously a higher portion of houses sold will be higher up the ladder.

I don't beleive any loading is done on the figues, it pure and simple the arithmatic mean of all the sales, thats why the average house price is alot higher than most other indicies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't beleive any loading is done on the figues, it pure and simple the arithmatic mean of all the sales, thats why the average house price is alot higher than most other indicies.

Thanks Dicky.

If you are correct then prices are probably falling much faster than the figures would suggest. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Go onto the LR web site download some data......

What would be the point, when .....

"Global Warming will turn most of the Europe into the extended Sahara desert, sea levels will rise flooding most of Southern England apart from a few islands. The new south coast will then be North Yorkshire, which will have a climate similar to the current day south of France."

(I quote)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am sure there are ways you can verify what I am showing you here if you really do not believe me but honestly, I can see them from my back bedroom window. I've lived here 5 years! Try telling me things are not falling! And yes, a falling property market doesn't mean disaster - a guy today made an good point, we took a 50% fall in share investments in the dot.com a few years ago with meltdown. Other countries in bubble deflation are handling it OK. There you have it. :rolleyes:

I would respectfully disagree with that last statement.

Most money invested in stocks and shares by the general population is money they could afford to lose.

Most money invested in housing is money that people are using to provide shelter.

The difference is that if you have recently bought on a high LTV and high salary multiple then you will likely end up in negative equity and very susceptible to IR increases.

If you have enough money to be investing (after paying subsistence) then you are probably not one of the poor people who will be affected.

I can see two types of people who will be affected by falling house prices (Ignoring BTL muppets):

1) People who are not wealthy and have stretched themselves to buy.

2) People who have comfortably bought at sensible prices/LTV but MEWed themselves to live/keep up with the Joneses.

People in scenario 1 deserve a little sympathy (although they have still made a very stupid decision), but people in scenario 2 deserve everything they get (as do the BTL speculators).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.