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How Much Below Asking Price R Sellers Accepting?


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I agree that governments influence the market, of course, and by a lot! They also have power to regulate it. But technically, in economics, governments are not part of the market. They are two different categories: governments and markets.

Thats true but personally i dont really have that much faith in economics when it comes to asset price markets which behave fundamentally differently to product based markets, the price elasticity model is completely the opposite in both markets, at a basic level in one higher prices reduces demand in the other higher prices increases demand, I think socionomics is a much closer fit to the asset price model and on that basis govt are no different to a single individual, they are bigger and have more clout but they will work and act just as an individual would with an identically flawed motivation and expectation of utopia or despair. Basically product markets are driven by rational behaviour and lack emotion, asset markets are driven by irrational behaviour and emotion

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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The only reason you say that is because you think I don't follow your way of thinking. Actually, I do - thats what brought me to this website in the first place. However after waiting for two years, am starting to believe its a load of "cack" as you put it. Admit i'd had a few jars when I wrote it. Try and put up a counter argument rather than drawing on schoolboy retorts though eh, theres a good lad LOL.

Curious reply. You must have some skill if you think you can correlate web ramblings with earnings. LOL. I'm super curious on this - how do you think rich people write then? I'm not rich btw, or don't consider myself rich. I have a good deposit through prior good fortune. I earn a good wage because I work damned hard and have gained experience working in lots of different countries. Plenty of people bleat on about being on a shit income and when you drill in a bit find that actually they just sat on their arses in the same job or line of work for the past 10 years..

South Wales.

Listen fellas. I can understand why you are bitter - I am too - its all a big rip off. But i'm starting to think - if you cant beat them join them - and I bet a lot of people are too. I'll even vote Labour just to make sure the party keeps going LOL. hmmm maybe not smile.gif

I agree with the first bit, many in the uk over the last few years have allowed HPI to replace ambition, creativity, or moving countries/industries to find work and better themselves or make money.

Surely South Wales is going to be hit badly in the coming economic shitstorm?

I am not bitter about anything, I m now a non-participant in this housing market, or any future housing market in the UK because I think if you are attached to any assets that can be taxed, taxed to death you will be. The alternative is probably some sort of state collapse. To me now it is purely a popcorn experience, like being on the grass having your little picnic when the Hindenburg came down. The VI balloon is due to burst, and I want to see Andre/Brown/Campbell do their fake weeping when it does.

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I agree with the first bit, many in the uk over the last few years have allowed HPI to replace ambition, creativity, or moving countries/industries to find work and better themselves or make money.

Surely South Wales is going to be hit badly in the coming economic shitstorm?

I am not bitter about anything, I m now a non-participant in this housing market, or any future housing market in the UK because I think if you are attached to any assets that can be taxed, taxed to death you will be. The alternative is probably some sort of state collapse. To me now it is purely a popcorn experience, like being on the grass having your little picnic when the Hindenburg came down. The VI balloon is due to burst, and I want to see Andre/Brown/Campbell do their fake weeping when it does.

Coming economic shitstorm? lol, ok - yes, maybe it will be. There are a lot of public sector jobs in south wales - or rather, public sector jobsworths sitting on their arses producing nothing. Yes, there will be negative effect on house prices.. probably. But I no longer care. I can afford my mortgage payments (at the moment), so i'll buy a house. If my circumstances changed, I shall be insured against that (critical illness, job loss etc). As I am not buying outright (had considered this - but a 4.73% fix over five years is a good deal imo) I consider myself to be renting one half of the house off the bank. I've been a renter for 10 years (yes, 10 years) and a mortgage initially scared the shit out of me. But now, I simply don't care. If my earnings drop, i'll sell up. I'm keeping some in cash/equities outside of the house purchase anyway, as a buffer. In terms of outgoings, this morgage will be approx 500 per month more than renting. Thats ok by me.

Honestly I think we are broadly on the same page. I've just been putting a viewpoint across, and every time someone speaks on here there is a lot of agression. This board used to be a lot more chilled and mature.

Edited by mikew
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Don't worry about it Mikey. You have hit the nail on the head. The loudest voices on this thread are the most bitter and deluded. We were told that last year was the start and further falls were inevitable. Then it was wait until winter. Now it's wait till the GE, IR raises, Bond vigilantes etc. etc. All the time saying that what is happening isn't happening. On low supply houses are rising.

Offers of 30% now will be laughed at. Almost every single one will be treated with utter derision. There are few forced sales and their limited number is supporting prices.

Banner might be right, In fact house prices might even fall 99% the year after next. At the same time I might be going out with Kelly Brook and my hair will have grown back. However, now sentiment is largely positive and those that are participating in the market have finance to enable that participation. Making stupid offers will just piss off the vendor and the estate agent. 30% isn't a sensible opening gambit. It just makes you look like a dick.

Don`t know who she is, but here goes....Arnold Palmer ( you could replace him with any guy who knows what`s going on) is sitting in a bar with his drinking buddy, smoking hot chick walks in, every male in the bar drools in his pint as he watches her walk across the room, except Arnold. Drinking buddy says, "didn`t you see that?" Arnold just says " somewhere there is a guy who is already tired of her". Somewhere there is a sheep who knows they have been lied to, and it is contagious, vendors have no control at the moment, they will have less after the election. You are starting to sound like the dick in this equation.

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vendors have no control at the moment, they will have less after the election.

Again, sorry to labour this, but I don't know where you are getting this from? Can you explain please? In my neck of the woods, vendors are calling the shots - as I said already. This is not a situation I like at all, and if there is anything I can do to swing the balance... great! But somehow, I just don't see what you are seeing.

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Coming economic shitstorm? lol, ok - yes, maybe it will be. There are a lot of public sector jobs in south wales - or rather, public sector jobsworths sitting on their arses producing nothing. Yes, there will be negative effect on house prices.. probably. But I no longer care. I can afford my mortgage payments (at the moment), so i'll buy a house. If my circumstances changed, I shall be insured against that (critical illness, job loss etc). As I am not buying outright (had considered this - but a 4.73% fix over five years is a good deal imo) I consider myself to be renting one half of the house off the bank. I've been a renter for 10 years (yes, 10 years) and a mortgage initially scared the shit out of me. But now, I simply don't care. If my earnings drop, i'll sell up. I'm keeping approx 40k in cash/equities outside of the house purchase anyway, as a buffer. In terms of outgoings, this morgage will be approx 500 per month more than renting. Thats ok by me.

Honestly I think we are broadly on the same page. I've just been putting a viewpoint across, and every time someone speaks on here there is a lot of agression. This board used to be a lot more chilled and mature.

All this indicates you are smoking a grade A pipe, all we need is a phone number/address and price.

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Sure. The idealised chart with the 'Bull Trap' ledge does not appear on the real house price graph on the previous two busts.

It is not a guarantee that the idealised chart is worked thru in the way described. That's all.

Id agree with that, personally i think thats because they were not full cycles just minicycles and i havent looked at the data that closely, over a shorter monthly timescale rather than quarterly perhaps they do show up. But fundamentally i think the main point is it is idealised and as you know the market never behaves in a perfectly uniform manner or wed all be billionaires. Rather than the shape for me which is compelling to a point, the more interesting point aspect is the emotions and participants that are highlighted at each stage on the graph, it is that more than anything that shows extreme high correlation with the housing market over the last 60 years

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All this indicates you are smoking a grade A pipe, all we need is a phone number/address and price.

Honestly I have no clue what you are on about. Speak English and not text speak please. What is your problem with my plan exactly? Can you see any flaws in my logic? Who's number, address and price are you looking for and why do you need them?

Edit: I think maybe you disagree with my strategy? You are puzzled as to why I would buy a house now, when prices could possibly drop? That my friend, is life. Sometimes we just need to get on with it, rather than waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... yaaawwwwwn!

Edited by mikew
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Again, sorry to labour this, but I don't know where you are getting this from? Can you explain please? In my neck of the woods, vendors are calling the shots - as I said already. This is not a situation I like at all, and if there is anything I can do to swing the balance... great! But somehow, I just don't see what you are seeing.

OK, got you. Smoke on Mon Ami laugh.gif , how much do they pay you for this nonsense?

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OK, got you. Smoke on Mon Ami laugh.gif , how much do they pay you for this nonsense?

LOL you think I work for Labour.

Oh boy.

Wow, ok yeah, haha you got me. Yep, thats it.

Dear oh dear, oh dear. *sigh*.

I'm curious how old you are, where you live, and what you do for a living (suspect you live with parents) ..

But yes, lol, I work for labour.

har har.

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Honestly I have no clue what you are on about. Speak English and not text speak please. What is your problem with my plan exactly? Can you see any flaws in my logic? Who's number, address and price are you looking for and why do you need them?

Edit: I think maybe you disagree with my strategy? You are puzzled as to why I would buy a house now, when prices could possibly drop? That my friend, is life. Sometimes we just need to get on with it, rather than waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... and waiting... yaaawwwwwn!

I`d like Ally Campbell to do his righteous weeping/anger/bad acting ( laugh.gif ) at my next party when we run out of J.D dry.gif

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That was a sensible answer. But to find a mid-way point, the buyer should put an offer 15% below, but in a few months, because we will soon have:

- In March: a scary budget

- End of April: publication of the GDP numbers for Q1 2010: back into recession.

- May: General Election

- Within 50 days: Conservatives "Emergency Budget" - much scarier.

The buyer should put an offer 15% below the asking prices then, as they will be much lower than the current asking price.

Just wait a few more months.

It was a rubbish answer. I didn't read the question properly and neither did you.

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OK, got you. Smoke on Mon Ami laugh.gif , how much do they pay you for this nonsense?

vendors have no control at the moment, they will have less after the election.

Still waiting for you to reply to my question to you on this - WHY do you think vendors have no control at the moment, and where is your evidence?

:rolleyes:

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I`d like Ally Campbell to do his righteous weeping/anger/bad acting ( laugh.gif ) at my next party when we run out of J.D dry.gif

You mean at your parents next party when you manage to sneak a few drops of whiskey, and whilst you don't really like the taste you drink it because you think it makes you look impressive. A bit like your posts on here.

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Still waiting for you to reply to my question to you on this - WHY do you think vendors have no control at the moment, and where is your evidence?

rolleyes.gif

Because they can`t sell a house like they used to, and the evidence is all around me, and I suspect most people in the country? To give an example from a movie. "Music and Lyrics" the guy once was the hottest draw on the circuit, now he is playing fairgrounds. The sheeple once knew a house was a one way bet, now they are not so sure? If there was no problem we would not be having this conversation? Vendors never controlled anything, they just thought they did. How much a bank can lend you controls everything.

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Hmmmm...there are a few sock puppets coming out of the drawer on this thread :rolleyes:.

You mean people that have seen through your idiot bluster? Perhaps people are finally sick of being told that house price armageddon is looming only to find out it isn't.

You may be happy never to participate in the housing market again. That's your choice. The vast majority of the public can and will. That's what makes me laugh about some hpcers the assumption that it'll nicely fall in your laps and you'll be picking up properties at 40% off. That assumes there isn't a whole cadre of people that aren't as bearish as you are. Which of course there are. The hpc extremists have effectively decided not to participate yet are happy to advise others how to participate. It is frankly laughable. The chain of events required to lead to such falls must include debt revulsion. Where's the evidence of that?

This place used to have some high quality posters who could explain the mechanisms and methods by which a crash would occur. Strangely they all went a bit quiet when prices did fall by 20% and many declared that they would buy at that level. Then the hpc doomsters effectively mounted a noise campaign driving some erudite people away. Now only the loudest and bitterest remain. No analysis, no facts just faith that it's just about to happen and bitterness that it isn't happening now. Any opposing view is assaulted as either a VI trying to talk the market up or absurdly, Labour party paid employees trying to do the same. It's a parade of wishful thinkers assuring each other that they are in fact correct. Having driven off all opposition even the slightly less mental McTavish types, they now stand unopposed. Which is funny given that Hamish's predictions have been pretty much correct thus far.

Sock puppets indeed.

Edited by GrillsBears
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You mean at your parents next party when you manage to sneak a few drops of whiskey, and whilst you don't really like the taste you drink it because you think it makes you look impressive. A bit like your posts on here.

Your "character" is starting to deviate from the "guy from South Wales who has been out of the country" Better tighten up. Smiley wouldn`t approve.

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You mean people that have seen through your idiot bluster? Perhaps people are finally sick of being told that house price armageddon is looming only to find out it isn't.

You may be happy never to participate in the housing market again. That's your choice. The vast majority of the public can and will. That's what makes me laugh about some hpcers the assumption that it'll nicely fall in your laps and you'll be picking up properties at 40% off. That assumes there isn't a whole cadre of people that aren't as bearish as you are. Which of course there are. The hpc extremists have effectively decided not to participate yet are happy to advise others how to participate. It is frankly laughable. The chain of events required to lead to such falls must include debt revulsion. Where's the evidence of that?

This place used to have some high quality posters who could explain the mechanisms and methods by which a crash would occur. Strangely they all went a bit quiet when prices did fall by 20% and many declared that they would buy at that level. Then the hpc doomsters effectively mounted a noise campaign driving some erudite people away. Now only the loudest and bitterest remain. No analysis, no facts just faith that it's just about to happen and bitterness that it isn't happening now. Any opposing view is assaulted as either a VI trying to talk the market up or absurdly, Labour party paid employees trying to do the same.

Sock puppets indeed.

If the cap fits.... :rolleyes:.

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If the cap fits.... :rolleyes:.

That's you argument is it? Why not just stick your tongue out and go "na na na na na na I'm not listening"

I have no interest in property. I own mine outright and have significant cash reserves that would allow me to survive pretty much any shock to the financial system. I abhor the Labour party and its policies. Additionally I see no evidence whatever that hpi is a positive for wider society.

Where I differ from you is the fact I'm not in denial. You are. House prices at current transaction levels are rising. Please explain why a vendor cognisant of this fact would entertain an offer of 30% off?

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You mean people that have seen through your idiot bluster? Perhaps people are finally sick of being told that house price armageddon is looming only to find out it isn't.

You may be happy never to participate in the housing market again. That's your choice. The vast majority of the public can and will. That's what makes me laugh about some hpcers the assumption that it'll nicely fall in your laps and you'll be picking up properties at 40% off. That assumes there isn't a whole cadre of people that aren't as bearish as you are. Which of course there are. The hpc extremists have effectively decided not to participate yet are happy to advise others how to participate. It is frankly laughable. The chain of events required to lead to such falls must include debt revulsion. Where's the evidence of that?

This place used to have some high quality posters who could explain the mechanisms and methods by which a crash would occur. Strangely they all went a bit quiet when prices did fall by 20% and many declared that they would buy at that level. Then the hpc doomsters effectively mounted a noise campaign driving some erudite people away. Now only the loudest and bitterest remain. No analysis, no facts just faith that it's just about to happen and bitterness that it isn't happening now. Any opposing view is assaulted as either a VI trying to talk the market up or absurdly, Labour party paid employees trying to do the same.

Sock puppets indeed.

wheres the evidence of debt revulsion?

Are you serious, why do you think the economy has been in its longest recession for 50 years and interest rates are zero?. Mostly because people are not spending in it, that is what is causing the contraction. Economically debt revulsion has been driving this entire recession. People are generally scared to spend, they have fear for their jobs, they are starting to behave rationally.

Govt are trying to force them to spend with zero interest rates but it still isnt working and it wont, the national phsyche is changing, it is slow turning like a tanker but it is clearly happening or the economy wouldnt be in this position. The govt has stepped in to replace this rational behaviour with their irrational behaviour of spending money they dont have (it is always easier for govts to act irrationally for longer as it is not their money they are spending, so they dont really give a toss) but they too have finite spending limits dictated by the market, bigger pockets do not equate to bottomless pockets

Why do you think for the first time since the records began personal debt levels have been reducing Debt Levels

The revulsion comes much later in the cycle once the major pain has been inflicted, people react accordingly and become revulsed by debt, ala Japan, it is the real pain that teaches the lesson. The lack of willingness to take on debt is clearly there though for anyone who understands the signs to look for

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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