How Much Below Asking Price R Sellers Accepting?

[Bruce Banner]

It feels like a lot on HPC, e.g. STRs, want everyone buying to make savagely low offers because it suits their agenda.

My advice would be not to make an offer at all at the moment. But, if you must, don't offer any more than the current market price less 30%, for the reasons I explained in an earlier post.

[Tired of Waiting]

It feels like a lot on HPC, e.g. STRs, want everyone buying to make savagely low offers because... it suits their agenda.

No. Because it suits the country's economy and people, in two aspects: efficiency and ethics (fairness)

Current prices and too high, and unsustainable, and the government's policies keeping prices too high are both wrong (futile) and unethical. It will just make the crisis longer, and it will burden millions of taxpayers, and the country, and burden the recovery.

And regarding the OP buyer, he is most probably not aware of the incoming crash - it suits him too to be warned.

[xux42]

No. Because it suits the country's economy and people, in two aspects: efficiency and ethics (fairness)

Current prices and too high, and unsustainable, and the government's policies keeping prices too high are both wrong (futile) and unethical. It will just make the crisis longer, and it will burden millions of taxpayers, and the country, and burden the recovery.

And regarding the OP buyer, he is most probably not aware of the incoming crash - it suits him too to be warned.

All very true. But unfotunately the housing market is sticky on the downside so it takes chaos & mayhem for a sharp correction to occur. More likely we will see more slow declines in prices largely obscured by inflation & sterling devaluation.

Tedious.

[mikew]

To be frank the people buying houses now at 2007 peak, economy destroying prices, are living in fantasy land.

After the biggest banking/economic collapse in history and a country full of desperate sellers, people still think that offering 20-30% below an over inflated asking price is silly...read the sentence back to yourself ands ask who the deluded people are !!!

Look at the rightmove asking price index. Look at the land registry index. What's the difference 20/30%...thats what i'd be offering below asking price and justifying it with the land registry data, local sales data, auction data and the statement that the economy has collapsed and if you dont accept my offer someone else will, it's just a house, not a new kidney.

The people buying now at peak prices must be amonst the most stupid and deluded the world has ever know.

My post has nothing to do with jealousy and I wouldnt buy a house in this country now if there were giving them away free.

My advice to the O.P. learn to haggle. No matter what you offer the E,A, will always come back and say it''s not enough, might as well point out the facts of the economic crisis, start and 50% off and work your way up.

As an indian friend said to me when I was going to his homeland on holiday, they see you coming, they will rip you off, offer 90% less than the asking price, you might get them down to 50%, you are still paying 10 times too much.

Ever wondered why E.A's shops have such big windows ? To display lots of properties, I hear you say...no, it's so they can see you coming.

Where are these desperate sellers? Seriously? Tell me, because I want to know. There are NO desperate sellers where I live, only a ton of buyers jumping on anything half decent as soon as it hits the market. Thats MY experience of this. I'd LOVE there to be a full on balls out crash, but after 2 years of as you put it "After the biggest banking/economic collapse in history" we are still waiting. Its not happening.

I think a lot of people on here are bitter and twisted and I don't blame them, but its skewing your view of what is actually happening outside of this housepricecrash.co.uk bubble.

[mikew]

All very true. But unfotunately the housing market is sticky on the downside so it takes chaos & mayhem for a sharp correction to occur. More likely we will see more slow declines in prices largely obscured by inflation & sterling devaluation.

Tedious.

Exactly - my thoughts too. There won't be huge and sudden drops, but a gradual erosion over the next few years as wages etc catch up. I'd lived outside the country for 10 years and got back a couple of years ago - looking in job centre and job agency windows, surprised how low earnings are 10 years later, in fact they had not changed much as far as I could see. THATS where the correction lay.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

All very true. But unfotunately the housing market is sticky on the downside so it takes chaos & mayhem for a sharp correction to occur. More likely we will see more slow declines in prices largely obscured by inflation & sterling devaluation.

Tedious.

so far its not any stickier on the downside than it was on the upside, i look at the halifax and there was a 2 year period at the same level as around here where housprices didnt go up. Also only a month ago everything was happy crappy in the stockmarket, no apparent sign of any problem and in the last two weeks there has been a serious sell off, the housing market is no different fundamentally , things change very quickly and i would say slow decline is next to impossible, it might be a new bull market but if its not there will be no subtle correction, it will stream as it did in 2008, markets sell off a hell of a lot quicker than they build up because falls are driven by fear which is a much stronger human emotion than hope, roughly 1/3 the time period

Edited February 7, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka

[Tired of Waiting]

All very true. But unfotunately the housing market is sticky on the downside so it takes chaos & mayhem for a sharp correction to occur. More likely we will see more slow declines in prices largely obscured by inflation & sterling devaluation.

As "sticky" as in 2008?

As I wrote before elsewhere, my forecast is a 20-30% fall in real prices in the next 2 to 3 years. I've traced the middle line of that forecast (25% in 2.5 years) in the chart below (the straight line). Naturally the actual shape of fall should probably follow the traditional "curvy" shape, slow to begin with, then accelerating, after the election and the Conservatives' Emergency Budget.

(Data: Nationwide. 2009 Q4 = £162,116. Minus 25% = £121,587. 2.5 years from now = 2012, Q2.)

Now compare the chart above, with the chart below:

Edited February 7, 2010 by Tired of waiting

[scottbeard]

There's one slight flaw in the argument though - the above assumes that your made up numbers are correct. I really hope they are but I don't know that our OP should base his financial decisions on them. It's not a criticism of you - the OP asked for our opinions so you're entitled to give them, but houses have not yet dropped 30% and until there are signs that they have, few sellers are going to take a 30% below offer seriously.

That sounds a little like saying "It's OK to ask for advice on HPC.co.uk, but you should only follow it if it agrees with the mainstream media"

Bruce may or may not be right, his you can't criticise a prediction for the next 3-4 years on the grounds it has not yet come true today. Let's judge Bruce's view in 2014.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

As "sticky" as in 2008?

As I wrote before elsewhere, my forecast is a 20-30% fall in real prices in the next 2 to 3 years. I've traced the middle line of that forecast (25% in 2.5 years) in the chart below (the straight line). Naturally the actual shape of fall should probably follow the traditional "curvy" shape, slow to begin with, then accelerating, after the election and the Conservatives' Emergency Budget.

(Data: Nationwide. 2009 Q4 = £162,116. Minus 25% = £121,587. 2.5 years from now = 2012, Q2.)

as highlighted between 2004 & 2006 there was equally sticky action in the uptrend, the difference being it was a flat consolidation as opposed to a sharp one, but both serve the same purpose of consolidation in markets

[Tired of Waiting]

as highlighted between 2004 & 2006 there was equally sticky action in the uptrend, the difference being it was a flat consolidation as opposed to a sharp one, but both serve the same purpose of consolidation in markets

You mean a temporary "sticky" phase? Like that "bear trap" and "bull trap" in that other famous theoretical chart? (Could not find it now.)

Usually I don't tend to believe in these "general" charts, as governments can distort it (Brown particularly). But that chart did make some sense, I must admit.

Edit to add: I've found that theoretical chart:

Edited February 7, 2010 by Tired of waiting

[dances with sheeple]

fwiw, i just accepted an offer 5k less than the asking price on my gaff in scotland

so that's what i find acceptable

People offering 15-20% less just got told to s*d off frankly, because that 15-20% would be coming straight out my deposit and practically halve what i had to lay down on another place = bigger mortgage and crapper loan rate. In that scenario it wasn't worth moving so it was a 'no'. Unless the house you are looking at really, really needs to be sold you'll get told similar. Don't think people with their places on for 6 months or longer are desperate either, I wasn't - rather you just get more and more ready to knock the whole idea on the head than knock money off.

Sale gone through,money banked?

[dances with sheeple]

FWIW, i'm looking for a place at the moment. In the area I am looking, decent houses are on the market for a very short space of time before going SSTC (example: three bed bungalow £330k one week before SSTC), and some appear on the market as SSTC. It sucks, but thats the reality. Its very competitive. I don't know where the majority of HPC users reside but it certainly their experiences do not reflect what I am seeing locally (cardiff).

Also as a previously vehement believer in HPC - how can prices be sustainable!!?!? - i've decided to throw in the towel and have offered 5% below asking on a £390k property, to be told in no uncertain terms that the minimum vendor will accept is 2% below asking.

Funny old world isn't it. I've given up on HPC. I've the equivalent of a average in house price cost in my bank accounts and i can't see prices dropping in actual terms ever, maybe in nominal, but then i earn a good salary and frankly am past caring about the whole thing - its just not going to happen. Too many super rich people have too much wealth stored in property for there to be a real adjustment allowed.

I am throwing in the towel on HPC as a logical and reasonable idology which is unfortunately living in lalalala land as it doesn't fit in with the ideology of fact - those who actually control the big stuff in this world have too much vested interest to allow it to fail; you are either in it or you are not.

regards, etc.

That is the biggest load of cack I have read in a long time. Where do you buy your weed?

[Tired of Waiting]

That is the biggest load of cack I have read in a long time. Where do you buy your weed?

+ 1

Firstly, I doubt he is telling the truth. Something in is thinking/writing style doesn't match his allegedly large bank account.

Secondly, even if he is telling the truth, and will buy now, then Social Darwinism will take care of "re-harmonising" his thinking/writing style with his bank account...

[dances with sheeple]

Where are these desperate sellers? Seriously? Tell me, because I want to know. There are NO desperate sellers where I live, only a ton of buyers jumping on anything half decent as soon as it hits the market. Thats MY experience of this. I'd LOVE there to be a full on balls out crash, but after 2 years of as you put it "After the biggest banking/economic collapse in history" we are still waiting. Its not happening.

I think a lot of people on here are bitter and twisted and I don't blame them, but its skewing your view of what is actually happening outside of this housepricecrash.co.uk bubble.

Where do you live?

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

You mean a temporary "sticky" phase? Like that "bear trap" and "bull trap" in that other famous theoretical chart? (Could not find it now.)

Usually I don't tend to believe in these "general" charts, as governments can distort it (Brown particularly). But that chart did make some sense, I must admit.

Edit to add: I've found that theoretical chart:

2004-2006 is not technically a bear trap of the same degree, the bear trap over the full cycle for this bubble is 1989-1995. If you are looking at the full cycle for this credit cycle for comparison then you need to go back to at the very minimum 1950 when the credit expansion began. Regards the govt, they cant distort the market technically because they are part of the market, govt action to change the market conditions is as valid as any other external force which also acts to create the market such as interest rates, media action telling people to jump in to the market, banks doing there best to bankrupt themselves etcetc, these are all the fundamentals that create said market,

You cant put up said chart and then decide to add or leave things out because they dont fit, every external and internal force work together to create that idealised chart

[dances with sheeple]

so far its not any stickier on the downside than it was on the upside, i look at the halifax and there was a 2 year period at the same level as around here where housprices didnt go up. Also only a month ago everything was happy crappy in the stockmarket, no apparent sign of any problem and in the last two weeks there has been a serious sell off, the housing market is no different fundamentally , things change very quickly and i would say slow decline is next to impossible, it might be a new bull market but if its not there will be no subtle correction, it will stream as it did in 2008, markets sell off a hell of a lot quicker than they build up because falls are driven by fear which is a much stronger human emotion than hope, roughly 1/3 the time period

Agreed, the people who post things like "the market will decline slowly over a number of years" and "the market will just stick where it is and slowly start climbing after a few years" are mentally back at the primary school panto rooting for tinkerbell. When the sheeple realise that the housing elevator stops at BASEMENT and SUB-BASEMENT on it`s way to hell they will collectively sh*it themselves and the mother of all sell-offs will begin. We have had the GREED, next we get the FEAR. Many sheeple are still heavily invested in the idea that "houses always go up" and "they" can fix it. When it becomes obvious that the casino effectively closed in 2007, many people will sell for what they can get, if it covers their mortgage, or default if it doesn`t, all IMO of course.

[dances with sheeple]

+ 1

Firstly, I doubt he is telling the truth. Something in is thinking/writing style doesn't match his allegedly large bank account.

Secondly, even if he is telling the truth, and will buy now, then Social Darwinism will take care of "re-harmonising" his thinking/writing style with his bank account...

He will be singing G, while the banker sings F sharp and pulls his Gary Glitter wig on.

[winkie]

IMO the market is flat--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In real terms it is falling

v

v

v

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

IMO the market is flat--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In real terms it is falling

v

v

v

yes it can also be looked at this way, if you used an inflation adjusted chart, the flat correction in 2004-2006 part of the upmove and the sharp correction now in the downmove would magically swap shapes.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka

[mikew]

That is the biggest load of cack I have read in a long time. Where do you buy your weed?

The only reason you say that is because you think I don't follow your way of thinking. Actually, I do - thats what brought me to this website in the first place. However after waiting for two years, am starting to believe its a load of "cack" as you put it. Admit i'd had a few jars when I wrote it. Try and put up a counter argument rather than drawing on schoolboy retorts though eh, theres a good lad LOL.

+ 1

Firstly, I doubt he is telling the truth. Something in is thinking/writing style doesn't match his allegedly large bank account.

Curious reply. You must have some skill if you think you can correlate web ramblings with earnings. LOL. I'm super curious on this - how do you think rich people write then? I'm not rich btw, or don't consider myself rich. I have a good deposit through prior good fortune. I earn a good wage because I work damned hard and have gained experience working in lots of different countries. Plenty of people bleat on about being on a shit income and when you drill in a bit find that actually they just sat on their arses in the same job or line of work for the past 10 years..

Where do you live?

South Wales.

Listen fellas. I can understand why you are bitter - I am too - its all a big rip off. But i'm starting to think - if you cant beat them join them - and I bet a lot of people are too. I'll even vote Labour just to make sure the party keeps going LOL. hmmm maybe not

[mikew]

He will be singing G, while the banker sings F sharp and pulls his Gary Glitter wig on.

LOL congrats on that, nice one.

[Tired of Waiting]

after waiting for two years, am starting to believe its a load of "cack"

That is what I meant.

[Tired of Waiting]

2004-2006 is not technically a bear trap of the same degree, the bear trap over the full cycle for this bubble is 1989-1995. If you are looking at the full cycle for this credit cycle for comparison then you need to go back to at the very minimum 1950 when the credit expansion began. Regards the govt, they cant distort the market technically because they are part of the market, govt action to change the market conditions is as valid as any other external force which also acts to create the market such as interest rates, media action telling people to jump in to the market, banks doing there best to bankrupt themselves etcetc, these are all the fundamentals that create said market,

You cant put up said chart and then decide to add or leave things out because they dont fit, every external and internal force work together to create that idealised chart

I agree that governments influence the market, of course, and by a lot! They also have power to regulate it. But technically, in economics, governments are not part of the market. They are two different categories: governments and markets.

[mikew]

That is what I meant.

WTF are you on about????

You doubt i've waited 2 years?

OK, I haven't been sat on my **** *waiting* for prices to drop, but since being back in blighty have deliberated rented to sit out the crap thats been going on and thats approx two years. Govt policy is to maintain house prices at any cost, therefore, in it to win it or sit on the sidelines - your call. I've a good deposit and can take a hit of 30-40% in the medium term, any house I buy will be for 10-15 years as a minimum anyway. So now, i've found a place I can live in and i'm going to buy. My choice, my decision.

From reading this thread, there are a lot of dillusional bitter people on hpc.co.uk - there are no "desperate" sellers in my experience, and offering 270 for a 350k house is likely to get a no uncertain terms F off from the vendor. Ask me how I know. Again, merely commenting from my experience.

[GrillsBears]

WTF are you on about????

You doubt i've waited 2 years?

OK, I haven't been sat on my **** *waiting* for prices to drop, but since being back in blighty have deliberated rented to sit out the crap thats been going on and thats approx two years. Govt policy is to maintain house prices at any cost, therefore, in it to win it or sit on the sidelines - your call. I've a good deposit and can take a hit of 30-40% in the medium term, any house I buy will be for 10-15 years as a minimum anyway. So now, i've found a place I can live in and i'm going to buy. My choice, my decision.

From reading this thread, there are a lot of dillusional bitter people on hpc.co.uk - there are no "desperate" sellers in my experience, and offering 270 for a 350k house is likely to get a no uncertain terms F off from the vendor. Ask me how I know. Again, merely commenting from my experience.

Don't worry about it Mikey. You have hit the nail on the head. The loudest voices on this thread are the most bitter and deluded. We were told that last year was the start and further falls were inevitable. Then it was wait until winter. Now it's wait till the GE, IR raises, Bond vigilantes etc. etc. All the time saying that what is happening isn't happening. On low supply houses are rising.

Offers of 30% now will be laughed at. Almost every single one will be treated with utter derision. There are few forced sales and their limited number is supporting prices.

Banner might be right, In fact house prices might even fall 99% the year after next. At the same time I might be going out with Kelly Brook and my hair will have grown back. However, now sentiment is largely positive and those that are participating in the market have finance to enable that participation. Making stupid offers will just piss off the vendor and the estate agent. 30% isn't a sensible opening gambit. It just makes you look like a dick.

Edited February 7, 2010 by GrillsBears