Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Potential Ftb... But Prices Aren't Dropping!


Recommended Posts

The terrible unintended affect is that you now pretty much need a degree for any even half decent job, this is due to the fact that there are so many people fighting for anything that isn't totally crap it's the new base line yard stick...

I would guess that employers look more closely at your classification and the awarding institute too.

Is there such a thing as educational inflation? edu-flation.

It's worse than that.

The education system is a financial ponzi scheme, hence also the rise in NVQ BS qualifications required to work even in the most basic jobs.

NVQ Level 3 qualifications in "Beauty Therapy" or "Childcare" FFS. Or how about NVQ Level 3 certificate in "Welfare Benefits Advising" (I kid you not).

Insane, absolutely insane! :angry:

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 77
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • 8 months later...

The terrible unintended affect is that you now pretty much need a degree for any even half decent job, this is due to the fact that there are so many people fighting for anything that isn't totally crap it's the new base line yard stick...

I would guess that employers look more closely at your classification and the awarding institute too.

Is there such a thing as educational inflation? edu-flation.

I was talking about this with my boss while working at the University, she said that recently there has been educational inflation whereby a degree is more similar to A-Levels and a Masters Degree is more similar to a Degree in terms of value.

Judging by how qualified people are that have been applying for jobs with us recently, I would have to agree.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Judging by how "qualified" people are that have been applying for jobs with us recently, I would have to agree.

fixed

Any ideas what happend to smousie anyone? I'm starting to think the eye of the storm is passing and we're edging into phase 2... which I think may be somewhat more interesting...

Edited by meow
Link to post
Share on other sites

I can really understand the anguish here. I have been in a similar boat since 2008 after leaving university. The housing market simply sucks right now as many would tell you but... I want a house. I have a girlfriend I want to marry and I have luckily for me a large deposit to buy with. As much as I have this push to go out and buy I know whatever I get now has to be something I am willing to live in for the next 10+ years. However as the rightmove november figures state there is no real incentive for anyone to be selling cheap unless you are trying to downsize before a redundancy etc. This has meant that we are stuck in this stalemate. I refuse to pay full asking on houses which quite blatantly are still living in pre 2007/08 bubble figures because I need to protect myself for the slow inevitable downfall we are expecting to see.

Link to post
Share on other sites
However as the rightmove november figures state there is no real incentive for anyone to be selling cheap unless you are trying to downsize before a redundancy etc. This has meant that we are stuck in this stalemate.

Stalemate is right...

I honestly can not understand the situation in newcastle/tyneside. House prices are more expensive here than other areas, yet wages are low. Chances of redundancies are high due to the over reliance on the public sector and "businesses" solely funded by One North East.

No real change since 2007 here in my opinion. Three years into the crash and nothing!

Total pointless, generationally unfair, and seemingly sustainable stalemate.

Phoney

Link to post
Share on other sites

Stalemate is right...

I honestly can not understand the situation in newcastle/tyneside. House prices are more expensive here than other areas, yet wages are low. Chances of redundancies are high due to the over reliance on the public sector and "businesses" solely funded by One North East.

No real change since 2007 here in my opinion. Three years into the crash and nothing!

Total pointless, generationally unfair, and seemingly sustainable stalemate.

Phoney

I have to agree. Since the end of last year I have been telling friends/family it is inevitable that newcastle would fall flat on its **** and a crash was surely to start here. I was expecting this to be happening by now especially after the government public sector cuts. I used to work in the public sector a couple of years ago on a temp contract and I have to say they were having to meet a head count back then so god knows what it must be like there right now. I asked my gf's brother who works at the national insurance place at long benton and he seemed to think they have been told all of their jobs will be safe there.

How can 600k (if i remember right?) jobs in public sector be going and the biggest public sector office in the country not be making anyone redundant/early retire? Anyway.. regardless to that rant as you have said there seems to be no movement at the moment. I have been following around 20 houses at a time in the 150k-170k bracket, and they just simply didnt move. I have now had to look to up to 200k to find anything semi decent. I dont know if I am living in some weird dream but im pretty certain you should be able to find a half decent detached house for £200k and not a shoe box.. but alas I am constantly reminded this is not the case when I open up right move.

There are drops... but these are merely corrections to reality where askin prices have been over estimated by 30k and you see 5k and 10k drops in price. But this is not matching the real prices which in my opinion right now arent moving either. So we have a situation of over valuations (which I feel is around the 30k mark in the 100k-200k bracket) and the lack of movement in the real prices. If these government cuts dont hit the north east I will be shocked.. I think a further issue is the time scales. If the cuts were sharp we would have ourselves the crash but I feel the slow churning out will result in the stalemate continuing on into the foreseeable future.

Buyers will be forced to buy stale property (as right move newest index suggests). Sellers wont have a huge amount of urgency to be selling (if interest rates dont move). So what we are left with is shit properties selling for inflated prices.. in my books that marks a recovery in the property market... not a crash =[

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think what you're saying is basically what you need to tell estate agents, and if there are enough of us out there then something has to break, the eurozone is going into meltdown, job cuts look like they're "coming" (i.e. I don't think they've really come "yet") and as has been rightly pointed out here time and time again, the median wage in the NE is much lower than current asking prices + a sensible mortgage would allow (even with a large deposit).... I also have to wonder whether this forum holds a clique of deposit holding, sensible people or whether there are quite a few young persons/couple out there who are more than willing to buy, but at nowhere near current asking prices.

What with the changes in council tenancies too, which should drive down rents, it would seem renting is the best way forward until the idiots'/boomers' nails finally lose the grip on la la land and fall back into reality. I for one have absolutely no intention of buying even though I probably could.

Is it just me, or, given all of the above, is 85-90k for a reasonable flat, 110-120 for crappy ex-LA semis, 150-170 for decent-ish semis and 180-200+ for small detaches/nice area an utter, utter, p*ss take?

Edited by meow
Link to post
Share on other sites

180-200+ for small detaches/nice area an utter, utter, p*ss take?

As hard as this is to say I just bought one of those. Well im in the process.. offers over 205k I have it for 198k. The area is decent though which is a plus side and the house isnt a complete shoe box (mainly the living room isnt which really bugs me about new houses and tiny living rooms.) It isnt my dream home, but at present I dont really know what would be a dream home given a realistic price to also aim for. I think my only motivation to do this is literally that we could be waiting another 2 years for the price drop to bite hard. The signs are all there, but then again we have been saying that since 2007 and we were faced with an "ok" correction. However, I just really cant be bothered with the stress and hassle anymore... I feel I have really sold out on the crash and become one of the stupid sheep (how obsurd is that..). But, at the same time it is a home I can live in for the next 15 years if I have to and to be honest my mortgage is equivalent 1 year salary ... and my salary is under 25k (hint hint) so overall I will be left with a fully paid house. To make matters better my parents have just sold a home they bought as a do'er upper pre 2004 which paid its mortgage due to the boom years up to 2007 and they have no where to put all the furniture other than letting me have it.

Overall the situation just suits. I know deep down there WILL be a crash .. to be honest i hope its bloody horrific. I know I will lose a lot of actual cash out of this, but atleast I wont be stung with the mortage like others and I can be buying in a like for like market with a new bull attitude.

Edited by munkee
Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall the situation just suits. I know deep down there WILL be a crash .. to be honest i hope its bloody horrific. I know I will lose a lot of actual cash out of this, but atleast I wont be stung with the mortage like others and I can be buying in a like for like market with a new bull attitude.

After reading this post I think there's every chance that very low Interest rates and higher reported rents, plus the lack of any 'real' house price crash in a recession may be the push for (HPC) buyers into the market. My guess is that in the spring there's going to be a lot of p****d off HPC'ers entering the market.

Don't get me wrong I want a HPC - it's the right thing for all of us but the reality seems be less of a crash and more of a bump.

Link to post
Share on other sites

After reading this post I think there's every chance that very low Interest rates and higher reported rents, plus the lack of any 'real' house price crash in a recession may be the push for (HPC) buyers into the market. My guess is that in the spring there's going to be a lot of p****d off HPC'ers entering the market.

Don't get me wrong I want a HPC - it's the right thing for all of us but the reality seems be less of a crash and more of a bump.

I think for the north east there is a good chance of a crash to be honest, atleast down to 2001 prices. But at the same time as I said I believe it will be such a long drawn out process it isnt going to be something dramatical. I would love to see the ground fall away purely because of the amount of people on here waiting for the event but when reading back through posts as early as 2007 and then the big hurrah at the semi bubble burst in 2008 I think it is just so unrealistic for us to keep clutching at the hope ONE DAY we will see the HPC which keeps being predicted to be the end of this year, then the end of next year then the year after that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
ONE DAY we will see the HPC which keeps being predicted to be the end of this year, then the end of next year then the year after that.

My fear is that this does not happen and we have a decade of stalemate as wage inflation catches up slowly. In a low interest rate environment renters (like me) will lose :-(

We've defied all logic here for 3 years, who knows how long it will last.

P

Link to post
Share on other sites

After reading this post I think there's every chance that very low Interest rates and higher reported rents, plus the lack of any 'real' house price crash in a recession may be the push for (HPC) buyers into the market. My guess is that in the spring there's going to be a lot of p****d off HPC'ers entering the market.

Don't get me wrong I want a HPC - it's the right thing for all of us but the reality seems be less of a crash and more of a bump.

We are only 2-3 years into the 6 or so Harrisonian years of the bust, we have had some downward movement, and it looks like momentum from the 09/10 mini boom has gone and we are pointing down again with recent drops the largest on record. As much as I fear a protracted stint of inflation whereby everything but houses gets more expensive, I still think it is entirely possible for the north east prices to continue to fall down to 00-01 (maybe "plus a little inflation" since then) levels. As I said before, the cuts that are coming have not really happened/taken effect, once again I think people on the HPC boards are calling "all clear" as they can see the storm but it hasn't hit.

Edited by meow
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

Any ideas what happend to smousie anyone?

Smousie is still renting and waiting for a chance to buy :(

As I said before, house prices in the area I want to live in seem to be stagnating at 2006 levels (around £100k). There were no sales for a couple of years, and then in 2009 houses started selling for 2006 prices again. In 2010, one house in the area did sell for £85k, but as of today (Jan 2011) a couple of other houses in the area are advertised for £100k.

I don't understand how sellers can justify advertising their houses for £100k when a)That's what they were selling for in the 2006 boom years and it's now 2011, and b)An identical house sold for £85k last year.

What's even more annoying is that stupid people will buy at that price! If buyers insisted on paying £85k (since that £85k sale last year set a precedent for houses to sell at that price) then the average house price in the area would effectively be £85k and I'd have a chance of buying one. But if even one person buys at £100k, then nobody else will accept less. I'm going to wait a few months, save aggressively to boost my deposit, and then offer £85k for one of the houses currently on the market; hopefully they will see sense and accept my offer, but I have a feeling that they might see the other houses advertised for £100k and refuse to accept my lower offer. The problem is that the houses in that area tend to be owned by older people who bought years ago and have no mortgage to pay, or families with stable jobs who can afford their mortgages - there are no forced sellers so people are unlikely to accept less than their asking price.

On the plus side, I do have a boyfriend now :) However the relationship is too new for us to consider buying property together, and if I wait a few more years there's a chance that prices might start to rise again. I still need a house whether we're together or not, so if I get the opportunity to buy at £85k I'm going to go ahead and do it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...

I don't understand how sellers can justify advertising their houses for £100k when a)That's what they were selling for in the 2006 boom years and it's now 2011, and b)An identical house sold for £85k last year.

What's even more annoying is that stupid people will buy at that price!

I think you've just answered your own question there. If I knew that someone might buy my house for £100k, why would I sell it for £85k - unless I was desperate to get rid of it?

I think now is the wrong time to buy anyway.

You have to factor in the fact that in the North East, with a very public sector heavy workforce, the worst of the economic crash is yet to come. The cuts have been advertised, but most of the job cuts themselves have not been implemented yet. As well as the people losing their jobs, there will be business and people affected by the rise in unemployment as people have less money to spend. And people made redundant will have payouts which might keep them going for a few months, but after that the problems will start to bite. In general the region will be poorer in 9-12 months than it is now. Those public sector jobs will need to be replaced, and it's not obvious where those jobs will come from.

The other big thing is interest rates. Inflation is currently 2% above the government target and I think interest rate rises over the next year are inevitable. This will make mortgages less affordable for mortgage holders and first time buyers alike.

So on balance the most likely thing for house prices to do in the region is fall. Possibly, they might only stagnate at or around the same level. Region-wide rises in house prices I think are by far the least likely option when you consider the economic factors of less people with the money to buy, less affordable mortgages, and more people in dire straits needing (or being forced) to sell.

If in the meantime you're saving a bigger deposit, even with a rise in interest rates, you will be in a better buying position in say 12 months than you are now.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Hmmm redundancies...I'm starting to wonder if they'll ever happen...

Phase 1 is going though.

In terms of the civil service, there are currently 2 more 'exercises' planned. Trimming about 20% off the total workforce in the NE.

yes 20 percent!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Phase 1 is going though.

In terms of the civil service, there are currently 2 more 'exercises' planned. Trimming about 20% off the total workforce in the NE.

yes 20 percent!

As much as that - how many jobs would that be?

This will have a knock on affect to businesses as well as the housing market. Sadly the NE suffers again :(

Link to post
Share on other sites

Phase 1 is going though.

In terms of the civil service, there are currently 2 more 'exercises' planned. Trimming about 20% off the total workforce in the NE.

yes 20 percent!

Tell me more.

Have you got a link I can read? I didn't realise the scale of it!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I can imagine a lot of other public sector/civil service workers have a similar desire.

In contrast, I know that Newcastle Council reduced their enhanced redundancy rates this year - aka no more golden goodbyes (at least for those without connections) there.

That said, I'm yet to hear of any major job cuts there, despite the 700 announced a couple of months back. A few, yes, but not in the numbers announced.

Not that I actually want anyone to lose their jobs. It's more the inaction either way that surprises me.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.