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Smell the Fear

Property In 20 Years Time

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I'm surprised that the majority think values will be higher? Hasn't anyone been reading about the global energy crisis, peak oil etc? How can values be higher with the global economy in tatters? What gives?

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UK's relatively open economy will continue to prosper compared to neighbouring countries. Entry of east Europe, China, India into world's economy will give it impetus throughout first half of 21C.

Tide will swing back away from higher taxation in the UK although not radically, settling at a bit less than now.

Britain well placed to benefit from more globalised trading in services and, compared to other countries, better able to follow any trends and changes.

Possible collapse of Euro, emergence of more business friendly, new-generation governments in Germany and France, further European integration nevertheless (economically not politcally).

London at centre of these trends, and also world centre for carbon trading.

House price collapse followed by stagnation but then another boom, especially in London, tempered by changing demographics.

I hope.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Peak oil

Civil unrest

Social breakdown

War(s)

Conclusion: Price of property to become irrelevant as people have bigger things to worry about.

Demand for Thunderdomes should skyrocket though! ;)

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Peak oil

Civil unrest

Social breakdown

War(s)

Conclusion: Price of property to become irrelevant as people have bigger things to worry about.

Demand for Thunderdomes should skyrocket though!  ;)

Most of the doom and gloom predictions could have been made 50 years ago (Avg house prices around £1000) 30 years ago (average house prices £7000) and 10 years ago (average house prices £70000). It's called supply and demand and it ALWAYS results in increased prices. You could apply the same argument peddled on this MB to the oil market and call it 'oil price crash'. Oil prices will not crash because there is more demand for oil than there is oil available - exactly the same as houses.

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Peak oil? Poppy ****

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1545899,00.html

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman and a former economist at Shell, believes that all the talk of the $100 barrel of oil is alarmist.

For one thing, he says, high oil prices will lead to increased production and exploration, thereby improving supply, and to falling demand, as consuming economies slow in the face of higher energy costs. "It seems clear that increased supplies, and capacity, and slowing demand will reverse the market trend before long, possibly very sharply," he wrote in the Guardian this week.

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Oil prices will not crash because there is more demand for oil than there is oil available - exactly the same as houses.

So why are there record numbers of houses for sale? Why are there a dozen unsold flats on my road? Why are they building another 30-40 flats when the ones built last year still aren't sold? Why are rents stagnant when house prices have tripled?

Ah, I guess you're too busy reading those headlines about 'Victor Meldrew found in outer space' to have any time to watch the housing market collapse.

For one thing, he says, high oil prices will lead to increased production and exploration,

Oil takes time to find (it there's even any _to_ find), drilling takes time to set up, refineries take time to build. I wouldn't be surprised if prices are below $100 (in today's money) in a few years, but I'll be seriously unsurprised if prices go above $100 before then. In fact it could probably happen overnight if bin Laden's mob start attacking Saudi oil wells.

Edited by MarkG

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It's called supply and demand and it ALWAYS results in increased prices.

As has been established over and over again on this site and everywhere else the main determinant of the trend of house prices (notwithstanding bubbles and slumps) is GDP growth. Supply and demand are always broadly in balance (unless the number of people sleeping in cardboard boxes jumps into the millions or there acres of empty houses).

In fact, over the medium term (20 years) pressure is likely to be mildly downwards on the supply side due to demographics and perhaps marginally up on the supply side (relaxed planning, Prescott's grandiose schemes etc).

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In 20 years there is time for a crash, another boom and a further crash.

However as demonstrated by Japan it is entirely possible that prices will decline year-on-year for many years.

In the long term I think prices (at least in relation to incomes) will come down. It all depends on whether the supply/demand situation is sorted out.

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Peak oil? Poppy ****

Please tell me you're kidding... I had you down as someone who'd actually looked at the data and accepted the obvious imminent peaking of oil extraction rates. Certainly in 20 years if not within 5.

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It's called supply and demand

Please present some evidence that housing supply cannot keep up with housing demand in the UK.

Oil prices will not crash because there is more demand for oil than there is oil available - exactly the same as houses.

When I drive to work, the petrol in my tank gets used up. The last time I tried living in a house, the house did not disappear. Houses do not get consumed by living in them. When you build a house, it tends to stay around, often for a long time. Lots and lots and lots of houses have been built in the UK. People on the other hand have this funny habit of dying off after a while, and after they die they don't need houses. Where are all these people coming from to mean that demand is outstripping supply so much that prices have trebled in 10 years? And if there is such a demand for housing, why haven't rents gone up by much?

frugalista

edit: a typo

Edited by frugalista

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Peak oil? Poppy ****

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1545899,00.html

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman and a former economist at Shell, believes that all the talk of the $100 barrel of oil is alarmist.

For one thing, he says, high oil prices will lead to increased production and exploration, thereby improving supply, and to falling demand, as consuming economies slow in the face of higher energy costs. "It seems clear that increased supplies, and capacity, and slowing demand will reverse the market trend before long, possibly very sharply," he wrote in the Guardian this week.

theres no more crude oil fields left to find, any that are, are to expensive to mine. It peaked in the 70s also.

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I think forecasting this far ahead is a bit pointless.

I refer to shows like "tomorrows world" predicting we would all be going to work in hovercraft by the year 2000, it just didn't happen.

If you watch Star Trek from the 1960's, although highly entertaining and innovative, the show's own version of reality was very much a projection of improved 1960's technology, with a few guesses. The only thing they got right was automatic doors. We are no closer at all to beaming anyone or anything up.

The point I am trying to make is that no past Sci-fi ever predicted a concept close to the internet, and this has had a massive effect on everything. The future doesn't tend to stem upwards in a straight line. THings tend to skew off in a tangent from unexpected breakthroughs.

In 1970, you couldn't ever imagine being friends with the Russians. In 1995 defence budgets were being cut because there were no enemies left, and now we face global terrorism, a threat that our traditional defences can't cope with anyway.

I imagine in 20 years time we will have a new reality, different to any projections from here, because of unknowns.

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If you watch Star Trek from the 1960's, although highly entertaining and innovative, the show's own version of reality was very much a projection of improved 1960's technology, with a few guesses. The only thing they got right was automatic doors. We are no closer at all to  beaming anyone or anything up.

Indeed, when people think about the future their exceptions are a function of the past. More of the same is assumed, that things will get better. Progress. I think there is evidence that there won't be more of the same, things won't get better. The future could well be worse than the past. It's possible that 2005 will turn out to be 'peak civilization' (as described in the first Matrix film).

It should be clear to everyone that material growth can't continue in a finite environment and also than growth will exceed the sustainable limits and collapse, the only question is when and how the collapse will occur. That could happen within the decade with declining energy supplies, it could have a decade later with declining agriculture capacity, it could happen a decade later with a pandemic super virus or climate change could but the trigger... That's all up for debate. Continuing the steady improvements we've seen over the last few hundred years is not an option.

My bet is an imminent collapse triggered by failing energy supplies.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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