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Morgan Stanley Say 30% Overvalued

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Housing 30% overvalued

Expecting falls of 5% this year. Excellent news for our society. The doom-mongers amongst us (the bulls, of course) will be disappointed that property is becoming more affordable for young people.

I read this report. There's something in it for everyone. My favourite conclusion is that "people who claim to know with any certainty which of these paths (i.e. crash, stagnation etc) UK house prices will follow are deluding themselves"

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One aspect relating to the current stagnation of the market appears to have been over-looked. I believe that part of the current problem is that the amount of MEWing has markedly reduced peoples ability to trade up the housing ladder due to their reduced equity. This, added to the lack of the FTB affordability and the £250K stamp duty threshold has caused a major bottleneck between £200-£300K.

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I read this report. There's something in it for everyone. My favourite conclusion is that "people who claim to know with any certainty which of these paths (i.e. crash, stagnation etc) UK house prices will follow are deluding themselves"

So are they predicting falls of 5% or not? :lol:

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Housing 30% overvalued

Expecting falls of 5% this year. Excellent news for our society. The doom-mongers amongst us (the bulls, of course) will be disappointed that property is becoming more affordable for young people.

The average house is now about 165K with IR at 4.75, in late 2001 IR rate were 4.75% and average property was about 90K, I'd say they are currently worth about 110K average give or take 4% wage inflation over last 3 or so years, I make it 33.33%.

Edited by Dicky

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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