Roubini Does An Aep

[huw]

Apart from London, virtually everywhere else in the UK would have been better off under the Bundesbank for the last 30 years.

London with its pressures, is naturally inflationary and volatile. Higher rates than what most of the country needed was a key factor in destroying much of this country's industry.

Can I vote the BoE in London out?

The Bundesbank stopped being an option in 2002 I believe; under their successors we'd have had even lower rates during the recent mania.

But I agree that ideal London rates <> ideal UK rates. However, that's mitigated (not solved) by labour mobility and by fiscal transfer. If we want to solve it, we could

- break the UK up so we can all have our own currencies and interest rates

- look at the underlying reasons for the two-speed economy (London/SE - elsewhere) that we have in the UK

- give less priority to London's needs when setting rates would gradually solve the wider UK problem, at the cost of more volatility in London.

One reason for London's entrenched economic primacy is that London's economy (being of prime importance) is the the main consideration when setting UK rates. As long as this goes on, Finance will always win out over Production.

[Deckard]

the Roubini effect

Greek Government Five-Year Bonds Tumble in First Day of Trading

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s new 8 billion euros ($11 billion) of five-year bonds tumbled in the first day of trading, pushing the cost of insuring the government’s debt from default to a record.

The spread on the notes, due August 2015, widened as much as 35 basis points to 385 over the benchmark mid-swap rate, according to Markit Group Ltd. iBoxx prices on Bloomberg. Credit-default swaps protecting against losses on Greece for five years soared 48 basis points to 373, according to CMA DataVision.

“Technically, the term is that it’s getting smacked,” said Gary Jenkins , head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “Clearly what’s happening is very negative and could lead to a vicious circle.”

[Trampa501]

Whisper it softly (as the current speculation may delay it) but there are now signs that Spain is starting to come out of recession. The mortgage numbers went up in November by 1.8% over the previous year - this was the first rise since the crisis started. Also the head of BBVA bank claimed today that his sources indicate that Spain is in fact coming out of recession.

Could be just a blip obviously, but if the big economies like Germany (Spain's biggest export market) are recovering, it can only be good news for Spain

(in El Pais today)

Fue sólo un 1,8% más que en noviembre de 2008 pero, por primera vez desde que arrancó la crisis, el número de hipotecas constituidas sobre viviendas fue mayor que en el mismo periodo del año anterior. Según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, en noviembre de 2009 se formalizaron 52.043 hipotecas, un registro que acabó con dos años y medio de tasas interanuales negativas.

[moneyscam]

the Roubini effect

Greek Government Five-Year Bonds Tumble in First Day of Trading

“Technically, the term is that it’s getting smacked,” said Gary Jenkins , head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “Clearly what’s happening is very negative and could lead to a vicious circle.”

They are already in a vicious circle (300 bps widening in 2 months is debt spiral territory) all along the curve, short to long end, it's all getting smacked. The next targets will be Portugal, Spain and then UK, the market is about to play a very big game of chicken with the EU and the UK.

['Bart']

If Barnsley and Oklahoma were seperate sovereign states with their own language and culture, which had formed independently over 2000 years, it would be exactly the same.

Barnsley does have it's own language and culture.

"Burn the outsider" is one of the cultural highlights of the year, coming just before the annual "Festival of the Doorstep Loans", based, like Christmas, on the ancient pagan winter festivals.

Down at the local nightclub there's a chance to meet one of the losing X-Factor finalists and hear their thoughts on current events (essentially the Barnsley equivalent of the Frost/Nixon interview)

Then, at New Year, it's off t'club to drink some t'beer and play t'bingo and get t'pissed and have a feight (fight).

It's a non-stop cultural whirl.

[CokeSnortingTory]

Barnsley does have it's own language and culture.

"Burn the outsider" is one of the cultural highlights of the year, coming just before the annual "Festival of the Doorstep Loans", based, like Christmas, on the ancient pagan winter festivals.

Down at the local nightclub there's a chance to meet one of the losing X-Factor finalists and hear their thoughts on current events (essentially the Barnsley equivalent of the Frost/Nixon interview)

Then, at New Year, it's off t'club to drink some t'beer and play t'bingo and get t'pissed and have a feight (fight).

It's a non-stop cultural whirl.

I used to go drinking in Barnsley when I lived in Sheffield - I had a mate who lived over there. It seemed to be full of enormous blokes who marinated themselves in aftershave.

Never seen it in daylight though.

[Deckard]

Barnsley does have it's own language and culture.

"Burn the outsider" is one of the cultural highlights of the year, coming just before the annual "Festival of the Doorstep Loans", based, like Christmas, on the ancient pagan winter festivals.

Down at the local nightclub there's a chance to meet one of the losing X-Factor finalists and hear their thoughts on current events (essentially the Barnsley equivalent of the Frost/Nixon interview)

Then, at New Year, it's off t'club to drink some t'beer and play t'bingo and get t'pissed and have a feight (fight).

It's a non-stop cultural whirl.

Good to see you back, sir - we missed you