Brian Potter Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 I have been following this forum for a number of months and generally I agree with the need for house price stabilisation/correction. However, I would like to issue a note of caution. If a house price crash does occur it will, in my view, be due to the levels of debt within the country and not particularly the interest rates moving up or down 0.25%. I am a freelance professional in the construction industry and see first hand how many residential developments are in the pipeline. To me it is common sense that the market is becoming totally saturated with btl properties. In the Times homes supplement this weekend, Manchester was identified as having a significantly weaker rental market for flats and that at least 50% of flats sold are btl. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of flats in the process of construction in Manchester. Small developers are still buying land at unrealistic prices - chasing the rainbow. My industry is often described as the barometer of the economy, and whilst it is true that at the moment we are incredibly busy, I see clouds gathering. If we do have a crash, this will cause a serious downturn in consumer spending which will affect us all. Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest horace Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 The Midas touch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Potter Posted August 8, 2005 Author Share Posted August 8, 2005 Just dont scratch yer nads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nijo Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 Yes, it seems to be that a HPC must be accompanied by a recession, but if that's the cyclical way of things then so be it. I see it like a forest fire. Being self-employed it's a risk to my income, but at least I can't be fired.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Fool & His Borrowed Money Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 It's a case of being realistic about things, Rather than the Arrogant optimism of a Blind man walking off the edge of a cliff, i choose to see what's up ahead And it doesnt look nice............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Potter Posted August 8, 2005 Author Share Posted August 8, 2005 I also am self employed and as a consequence have been making hay, banking and watching from the sidelines. People rarely heed warnings or past lessons. My brother fell into the 'I'm rich cos my house has doubled' trap. Spent the lot - now he is losing his home with little or no hope of regaining a foot hold. I take no joy in this. You sometimes can't make people listen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 Brian, No offence, but that is an often repeated warning and it doesn't make any sense. You see the jobs that are reliant on bubble level debt creation are doomed anyway and in the meantime squandering resources on this bubble is starving the other sections of the economy of the attention/funding that it needs, making nearly every infrastructure development massively overpriced (thank you land prices) and is ballooning the cost base and driving companies and employment abroad. When you are ill you take the treatment, not put it off hoping that you will wake up in the morning miracuously cured but all the time risking that you won't wake up in the morning at all. PS Old friend/associate of mine has done exactly what your brother has done in the last couple of months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Culpability Brown Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 I have been following this forum for a number of months and generally I agree with the need for house price stabilisation/correction.However, I would like to issue a note of caution. If a house price crash does occur it will, in my view, be due to the levels of debt within the country and not particularly the interest rates moving up or down 0.25%. I am a freelance professional in the construction industry and see first hand how many residential developments are in the pipeline. To me it is common sense that the market is becoming totally saturated with btl properties. In the Times homes supplement this weekend, Manchester was identified as having a significantly weaker rental market for flats and that at least 50% of flats sold are btl. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of flats in the process of construction in Manchester. Small developers are still buying land at unrealistic prices - chasing the rainbow. My industry is often described as the barometer of the economy, and whilst it is true that at the moment we are incredibly busy, I see clouds gathering. If we do have a crash, this will cause a serious downturn in consumer spending which will affect us all. Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> No need for the warning Potter. We are well aware of what looms on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 I have been following this forum for a number of months and generally I agree with the need for house price stabilisation/correction.However, I would like to issue a note of caution. If a house price crash does occur it will, in my view, be due to the levels of debt within the country and not particularly the interest rates moving up or down 0.25%. I am a freelance professional in the construction industry and see first hand how many residential developments are in the pipeline. To me it is common sense that the market is becoming totally saturated with btl properties. In the Times homes supplement this weekend, Manchester was identified as having a significantly weaker rental market for flats and that at least 50% of flats sold are btl. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of flats in the process of construction in Manchester. Small developers are still buying land at unrealistic prices - chasing the rainbow. My industry is often described as the barometer of the economy, and whilst it is true that at the moment we are incredibly busy, I see clouds gathering. If we do have a crash, this will cause a serious downturn in consumer spending which will affect us all. Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This point has been raised many times before. Many people on this site understand that a recession in the housing market will have a large impact on unemployment. They have been sensible enough to live within their means, save money, and keep away from interest-bearing debt and debt on depreciating assets. Unlike your average BTL idiot. For myself, I'm sitting in a very well paid job, I have 6 figures in the bank, and a house outside the UK. I am prepared for a recession worse than the 1990's, but at the same time I believe that the best opportunities present themselves in the darkest hours. Last year I STR'd and prices in the area have since fallen around 10% (SW11). This has been part luck, and part planning on my part. But essentially my actions have protected me from the stupidity of other people. I will fell little guilt in profiting from that stupidity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Some of the younger forum members have already had their 'financial catastrophy' with the Pound Sterling effectively devalued to 50% (if you're interested in ever owning a house, that is). Halved savings. Halved salary. Let's be straight about why there's now as near as no FTBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portent Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 If there is an economic crash then so be it. I don't wish for one. I am also not wishing for a HPC but I do believe one is coming and it would certainly be to my benefit. Unlike most of the population I do at least have my eyes open and am open minded enough to see that there could be problems coming over the horizon. Unlike many who simply believe that house prices will continue to rise with no fundamental reason and that a crash can't happen because "they" won't let it happen. If I lose my job here would have been nothing I could do to avoid it. But I'll be in a better position than most to ensure I do not bankrupt myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pad Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 Surley in the construction industries there must still be many tales of how bad things were in the last crash, rates on site cut etc., it cant really be a surprise in the building industry that this cycle of maddness cannot continue. I think most people on this site have a fair understanding of where we are heading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 On the manchester flats thing - its just a revenge for thatcherism. I do not believe that the mandarins in New Labour are that naive - I smell a strategy. Would I be being conspiritorial if I thought the Manchester (and elsewhere) buy to let availability is nothing more than New Labour putting the costs of housing onto the private sector? Why have the government pay to build social housing when the private sector has such an unused overcapacity? Why have government pay for the maintainence? Help put, perhaps by providing some of the rent, by all means, but drop the capital cost on the private sector. This policy is a political masterstroke. Genius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TW11 Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 (edited) Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Brian, I take your point but frankly if I had some big red button with "Press here for recession" written on it then I wouldn't hesitate to press it. Ok, there's a chance I'll lose my job, but that's a chance I'd be willing to take. The utter lunacy we have seen over the last four or five years has to stop. It's about time the moronic masses invested in something other than houses and started living within their means. For goodness sake, it's the same housing stock yet in some places we have tripled its 'value' over the last seven years or so. How pathetic. Did someone go out in the night and gold plate the bloody things? Edited August 8, 2005 by TW11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khali Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 If there is an economic crash then so be it. I don't wish for one. I am also not wishing for a HPC but I do believe one is coming and it would certainly be to my benefit. Unlike most of the population I do at least have my eyes open and am open minded enough to see that there could be problems coming over the horizon. Unlike many who simply believe that house prices will continue to rise with no fundamental reason and that a crash can't happen because "they" won't let it happen. If I lose my job here would have been nothing I could do to avoid it. But I'll be in a better position than most to ensure I do not bankrupt myself. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is true. You can only live your own life, regardless of how much you are concerned for the welfare of the rest of society. At present, most of us make our own decisions in this country and sink or swim by them. I will never be a millionaire, way too lazy. Lucky enough to realise that the late '90s were the last opportunity I would get to buy a house on my own. Worked and saved my backside off for the last 6 years and have paid off the mortgage. Come round my place, it's nothing to shout about, but I had great pleasure going to the land registry office and collecting my title absolute. Friends have patted me on the back, telling me how much money I've made, 'cos my house must be worth double what I paid for it, and I tell them it really doesn't matter whether it's market value is £50 or £500,000, it's relative to all the other properties in the area, and therefore, I have made no money whatsoever, and will not be re-mortgaging to buy a fancy car or holiday or anything. Sorry if this is off topic, started to rant a bit....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy.All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it! A fair point Brian, and one that certainly worries me more than a little. The problem is, I don't think anything can be done to stop a financial disaster now. It doesn't matter what any of us want to happen (even Gordon Clown) the correction process will just have to run its course regardless. I can't honestly see an easy way out of the current credit/housing bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted August 8, 2005 Share Posted August 8, 2005 I will never be a millionaire, way too lazy. ............................. Worked and saved my backside off for the last 6 years and have paid off the mortgage. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I like this idea of being too lazy to be a millionaire.In fact laziness can be a great motivator. My Grandfather was a miner from the 1920's to the 1960's.He told me that whenever a new job had to be done in the pit it was delegated,not to the brightest,but to the laziest worker in the mine. The laziest worker would find the quickest and easiest way to do the new job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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