grumpy-old-man-returns Posted January 22, 2010 Share Posted January 22, 2010 (edited) We had (the threat of) deflation. I didn't agree with it, but I could see there was a justification. there can never be a justification for devaluing your own currency, indebting the nation & crushing the prudent savers....never. edited due to crap spelling. Edited January 22, 2010 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted January 22, 2010 Share Posted January 22, 2010 Monetary collapse 100% Guaranteed. Stop quantitative easing...the stock and bond market will fall. (It's started again) If they increase...there will be a currency crisis. All mixed in with the war on so called 'terror' and scaremongering. :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeroSumGame Posted January 22, 2010 Share Posted January 22, 2010 Inflation. The crux of the monetarist economist's argument is that if you increase the money supply, it is inflationary. Conversely decreasing it is deflationary. This whole Friedman thinking was greatly exercised in the early Thatcher years. So no surprises to be expected. I know this was supposed to be a light hearted thread, but FWIW I think the only way out of this morass is for whatever gubbimint to inflate directly or by stealth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aa3 Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 Monetary collapse 100% Guaranteed. Stop quantitative easing...the stock and bond market will fall. (It's started again) If they increase...there will be a currency crisis. All mixed in with the war on so called 'terror' and scaremongering. :angry: Wonder if the markets are coming down in anticipation of QE stopping? Or maybe more dire, if QE purchases are slowing down its no longer propping them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 (edited) unless you posted under a different username (my apologies if so), you joined dec 2008. yeah good luck with that Tractorboy 2004. anyone beat that date ? that took me 30 seconds of googling. also, narco was the first peron to mention 'Biflation' on hpc iirc. No, I never had a different username. It's quite possible, even probable, that someone else brought stagflation up for this crisis, with Brown and Mervyn reacting to this crisis the way they did. I really don't mind. Honestly. But the link you posted was about a possible stagflation in 2004 - and that did not happen: "Published: October 11 2004 20:44 | Last updated: October 11 2004 20:44" "The recent surge in oil prices to new highs raises the risk that the world economy is headed for stagflation." I meant stagflation as a consequence to the current crisis. Edited January 23, 2010 by Tired of waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CokeSnortingTory Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 M4 decreasing = deflation, regardless of RPI/CPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godley Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 nope, because with stagflation you need wage inflation. We are seeing deflation in wages for the majority (please don't try to include the temporary public sector mid-senior level management up blips). Public sector massive culls heading the UK's way very shortly, both pay cuts & job cuts. BIFLATION INFLATION COLLAPSE funny that, the last time we saw a large increase in unemployment between 1975 and 1985 wages actually doubled. But hey GOM don't let a good old fact get in the way of stupid rectoric. If you did your post count would decrease some what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godley Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 you & the rest of the deflationists get to see very soon as the next down phase starts.......Feb imo. QE will be extended....100% correct, guaranteed. cgnao was right. your forecasting has (being polite about this) been somewhat discredited over the last 12 months. No need therefore to believe anything you say now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godley Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 What about an option for "cpi fluctuating between 1% and 5%" for the next few years? I know it's a bit radical, but I don't think we're going to get much official inflation or much official deflation. Although I think the environment is deflationary (QE will come to an end). I think that just as most of the inflation of the last decade took place outside the cpi basket (i.e. house prices) I think most of the deflation for the next decade will also take place outside the cpi basket (i.e. house prices again). spot on and thus the correction will be through wage increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurgeonGeneral Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 Monetary collapse 100% Guaranteed. Stop quantitative easing...the stock and bond market will fall. (It's started again) If they increase...there will be a currency crisis. All mixed in with the war on so called 'terror' and scaremongering. :angry: I agree. The noose is tightening and , I suspect, they'll print or borrow covertly knowing they won't be around to pick up the tab. IIRC, Labour borrowed 1 billion in 78-79 which the country never knew about. Thatcher revealed this acouple of years after taking office. God we need her now... Interesting to see Volcker with Obama yesterday. I think Obamama has tumbled Geithner and Bernanke.... and interest rates could be set at more realistic levels quite unexpectedly. Good. Any f#ckwit that borrows at 3-5% ( variable) and doesn't build in plenty of redundancy deserves everything they get. Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted January 23, 2010 Share Posted January 23, 2010 (edited) your forecasting has (being polite about this) been somewhat discredited over the last 12 months. No need therefore to believe anything you say now. I will let the people who know me on here decide that for themselves. ps - you know that house you bought in July 09 well I think you bought too early imo. erm yes I have.......... and in answer to whatever bandwagon is proved right, I bought a house in July and land there seems to be plenty of room on this bandwagon around these parts right now the consensus seems to be that I have bought during a bull trap.............we'll see eh GOM? Edited January 23, 2010 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 I've allowed biflation - but stabiflation??? I dunno - someone convince me It's been kicking around for a while it seems. It just never caught on... http://www.nomura.com/research/getpub.aspx?pid=253015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 your forecasting has (being polite about this) been somewhat discredited over the last 12 months. No need therefore to believe anything you say now. understatement of the century! Cue frantic post search by GOM in a desperate effort to prove you are a fake poster and/or lied about something in the past. Move along, nothing to see here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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