So You Turned 21 To-Day. Happy Birthday .....

[LuckyOne]

Hello,

So to-day was a big day for you and your family. You turned 21. Your sister will turn 18 this year, your dad will be 50 and your mom will be 45. Those are a lot of important milestones in one year for a family.

I am so sorry that I missed your party but distance does make it difficult. I expect that we will see you over the summer.

I hope that your party wasn't too embarrassing : You know the usual things, your Dad's dancing (he is my friend so I am allowed to say that), your Uncle Richard's "Dick" jokes after he has had a few too many drinks (just how many times have we heard them all) and your Aunt Jayne's behaviour (was that "y" always there?) after a few drinks. Somehow just one too many buttons gets undone on her blouse and she always seems to dance a bit too closely with your male mates, laugh a bit too loudly at their jokes and touch their arms, hands, faces or legs for just that little bit too long with her fingertips when she is chatting with them. You don't need to worry : all families seem to have members who do these sorts of things.

Now that the party is over, I am sure that you are starting to think about what happens now that you are firmly into young adulthood.

The good news is that you have a lot of good things ahead of you. Like most of your peers irrespective of their background, you are nominally slightly better educated than your parents. You have seen more of the world than they had at the same age. You are much more politically and socially aware than they were at the same age. Like most generations that have gone before you, I am sure that you are looking to the future with confidence and that you expect that you will have a better life than the generation that has preceded you.

Unfortunately, this is not going to be the case. There is a small problem in the UK at the moment called a house price bubble. Housing is so expensive that you are never going to be able to afford to live in the same type of house that your parents were able to afford at the same stage of their careers despite the fact that you and your dad will end up doing similar work. You are always going to live in a worse house in a worse area. On top of that, housing is so expensive that you are not going to be able to go on the same types of holidays, buy the same types of clothes or drive the same types of cars as accomodation will consume such a high proportion of your income relative to theirs at the same stages of your respective lives. In addition, the proportion of the population that are not economically productive in the UK has probably reached a critical mass that will result in ever increasing demands on the income that you generate to pay for the non-productive sector of the economy. After all of our conversations over the years, I am sure that you know that I define productivity relative to ability rather than as an absolute term.

The future need not be so bleak though. You should consider moving over here. People here still value a British education very highly. The memory of the past has not yet been eroded by the reality of the recent declines in standards in Britain. British workers are rightly considered to be very hard working, accurate, dedicated and rigourous in fields as diverse as general labour, science, engineering, architecture, accountancy, law, media, design, the trades (plumbing, carpentry, welding, pipefitting and electicians) and medicine.

As you know from the many holidays that you have spent together, my children over here are very close in age to you and your sister. They are going to be able to have a life better than I did (as you know your Dad and I do almost identical work) for the simple reason that the cost of housing (either renting or buying) is so much lower here than it is for you at home and we don't spend as much of our income supporting other people as you do at home.

Utopia doesn't exist and life is difficult no matter where you choose to live. On balance, I think that you could enjoy the many, many years ahead of you (God willing) over here more than you would at home despite the challenges that you will face in your first few years that you are here. You know us well enough to know that we will help you as much as we can. You should know that the locals find our accents as sexy as we find a French person speaking English.

I really hope that you will think about this and that we can discuss it more this summer when we are over for our holiday. Moving abroad is a daunting task. It will be easier for you because we are already here and settled in our local community. You never know, if you and your sister decide to move here, your folks might follow too. Lord knows, I have been pestering your Dad to hedge his bets a bit and to start investing here to fund his potential retirement here if that is what he wishes to do in the future. I hope that he has taken my advice as the value of your currency seems to be plummeting relative to ours.

I hope that I haven't spoiled your birthday with such a stark message about the future. Now that you are an adult, you have a lot to think about.

See you in the summer.

Your "Uncle"

Edited January 19, 2010 by LuckyOne

[aa3]

I see many 20-39's trying to live the same life their parents did. Owning their own home, taking foreign vacations, having a new cars.. But its just not going to happen for the vast majority.

Otoh if they aim low life can be pretty good. Have two families living in one home splitting the mortgage four ways, maybe even add a renter. Forget about foreign vacations, heck forget about vacations around the UK, and be a tourist in your own town. 'Seeing the world, aint' gonna happen in our new world, unless you are born rich or want to sacrifice every other thing for it.

As for new cars, buy a 10 year old car.. modern cars are mechanical marvels. They aren't like cars in the 60's that will rust out and die in a few years.

For entertainment say hello to computers, video games and the internet.

Say hello to the state. The private economy died for the average person under 40 a long time ago. A couple where one is a nurse and the other is a teacher lives pretty well. I've talked to quite a few young women who tried to make a career somewhere, only to go nowhere or get laid off.. now have moved into the NHS somewhere after going back to school and getting the official certifications.

Edited January 19, 2010 by aa3

[LuckyOne]

I see many 20-39's trying to live the same life their parents did. Owning their own home, taking foreign vacations, having a new cars.. But its just not going to happen for the vast majority.

Otoh if they aim low life can be pretty good. Have two families living in one home splitting the mortgage four ways, maybe even add a renter. Forget about foreign vacations, heck forget about vacations around the UK, and be a tourist in your own town. 'Seeing the world, aint' gonna happen in our new world, unless you are born rich or want to sacrifice every other thing for it.

As for new cars, buy a 10 year old car.. modern cars are mechanical marvels. They aren't like cars in the 60's that will rust out and die in a few years.

For entertainment say hello to computers, video games and the internet.

Say hello to the state. The private economy died for the average person under 40 a long time ago. A couple where one is a nurse and the other is a teacher lives pretty well. I've talked to quite a few young women who tried to make a career somewhere, only to go nowhere or get laid off.. now have moved into the NHS somewhere after going back to school and getting the official certifications.

So the end result is that social mobility when measured by standard of living is downwards rather than upwards for the vast majority of people.

Aspiration (in the best meaning of the word) is non-existant.

A crying shame really.

[Guest absolutezero]

I see many 20-39's trying to live the same life their parents did. Owning their own home, taking foreign vacations, having a new cars.. But its just not going to happen for the vast majority.

Otoh if they aim low life can be pretty good. Have two families living in one home splitting the mortgage four ways, maybe even add a renter. Forget about foreign vacations, heck forget about vacations around the UK, and be a tourist in your own town. 'Seeing the world, aint' gonna happen in our new world, unless you are born rich or want to sacrifice every other thing for it.

As for new cars, buy a 10 year old car.. modern cars are mechanical marvels. They aren't like cars in the 60's that will rust out and die in a few years.

For entertainment say hello to computers, video games and the internet.

Say hello to the state. The private economy died for the average person under 40 a long time ago. A couple where one is a nurse and the other is a teacher lives pretty well. I've talked to quite a few young women who tried to make a career somewhere, only to go nowhere or get laid off.. now have moved into the NHS somewhere after going back to school and getting the official certifications.

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

[aa3]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

My own prediction which is probably conservative is the private sector in the UK will shed 5 million jobs in the decade 2010-2020. I estimate between 2000-2010 the private sector lost about 4 million jobs in Britain adjusting for the size of the labour force.

The various welfare programs expanded by a couple million and the state jobs expanded by a couple million.

I think the private sector is currently around 22 million jobs in Britain. Of course a lot depends on how you define it.. right now a lawyer who 100% of his jobs are for the state, but as contracts is classified as private sector.

[BalancedBear]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

There is an awful lot more to the private sector than a few banks, who arguably are not reall yin the private sector anyway. To write of the hundreds of thousands of small businesses in the UK that more than pull their own weight is an outrage. They are the UK's largest employer. They need the support of government, not the continuous persecution.

Edited January 19, 2010 by BalancedBear

[aa3]

There is an awful lot more to the private sector than a few banks, who arguably are not reall yin the private sector anyway. To write of the hundreds of thousands of small businesses in the UK that more than pull their own weight is an outrage. They are the UK's largest employer. They need the support of government, not the continuous persecution.

Most of those small businesses are good for the owners.. who through their own hard work, creativity and talents have built these businesses. But for the employees it seems more often than not the jobs are either low pay/benefits and or low job security.

You don't see many private sector jobs nowadays like the auto workers or coal miners or steel workers or airlines or chemical plants of 30 years ago who enjoyed big wages, big benefits and job security.

[moneyscam]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

In that case where will the money come from when there is a decimated private sector? The govt is going to borrow it??? Haha, right now it has to monetize its own debt and that is with a relatively decent private sector of sorts. You think it will be better with a smaller private sector to service that debt? You think they can print the difference without a negative consequence to you? Stick to physics, you know ******all about economics or even the basics of working capital and cashflow.

[Goat]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

If you honestly believe that I advise you to panic and flee the country.

No private sector = no tax revenue = no public sector.

The public sector has failed, drowned in its own greed.

[Goat]

I see many 20-39's trying to live the same life their parents did. Owning their own home, taking foreign vacations, having a new cars.. But its just not going to happen for the vast majority.

That does however assume that house prices stay at the same hugely inflated level forever.

If prices drop 40%+ from peak (in real terms) then suddenly it looks a hell of a lot more affordable.

[Dorkins]

If you honestly believe that I advise you to panic and flee the country.

No private sector = no tax revenue = no public sector.

The public sector has failed, drowned in its own greed.

In East Germany, 100% of the economy was in the public sector. It can be done.

Not saying it's a good idea though.

[Dorkins]

That does however assume that house prices stay at the same hugely inflated level forever.

If prices drop 40%+ from peak (in real terms) then suddenly it looks a hell of a lot more affordable.

It's not just house prices though, there's been a lot of inflation elsewhere in the economy too e.g. energy, food, real life entertainment (drinking in pubs/concert/cinema/sports tickets). A lot of it is related to the cost of commercial property though.

[Greg Bowman]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

Our greed (Is it greedy to want have a dream?) pays the bills - nothing comes from nothing, and to everyone else who implies that private businesses pay poorly or do not invest in their people some do some don't same as the public sector.

The good news is that the state sector is about to see the market in red blooded action - the decade or more of the public sector chasing medocority and making excuses for lazy individuals and non jobs is over.

I say bring it on, I know what skill set I would rather have in the next ten years- the ability, skills and experience to compete in a tough market for a career or deals. Or a public sector CV that says I am a level 4 humbug expert in out reach cottaging.

As I said you are about to see the market at it's purest.

[Greg Bowman]

In East Germany, 100% of the economy was in the public sector. It can be done.

Not saying it's a good idea though.

You not serious are you? Surely?

[Dorkins]

You not serious are you? Surely?

Lol, no, I don't think it will happen here, was just saying it has happened elsewhere! Although we're already up to government spending at 54% of GDP... Nationalise a utility company or two, bail out a couple of large supermarkets, have a few public transport franchises fail, provide a government guarantee for almost the entire mortgage market as in America and how far off would it be?

[TwoWolves]

Where is this "Uncle" supposed to live?

[munimula]

I don't care what the rabid private sectorists on here say.

The State will be virtually the only employer of British people in the not too distant future.

The private sector has failed. Drowned in its own greed.

What a stupid thing to say.

The private sector is failing because it is being drowned out by the public sector

[AThirdWay]

Hello,

So to-day was a big day for you and your family. You turned 21.

(snip)

See you in the summer.

Your "Uncle"

A bit of crystal ball gazing is always fun! Has each progressive generation always had a better standard of living than the last? What about after WWI/WWII? I'm not sure...

However, as far as homeownership goes, this is very much a 'need' of the current generation. When I entered adulthood in the late 70's/early 80's, very few people owned their own home in the area I grew up. We didn't feel the need, as the local council was very liberal on what you could do to your home in the way of decoration etc. Almost everyone in my secondary school lived in council housing. The funny thing was, there was still a 'divide' between those who rented a flat and the lucky ones with semi-detached homes!

Then along came Maggie.....

She opened up the floodgates to home ownership, and we filled our boots! It was the QE of it's day. Local councils took in billions, then off-loaded (privatised) the housing support structure, job done.

So most of my previous generation bought their council houses (or my generation bought their parents house on the fly), and a large percentage still stay there. Most are mortgage free (apart from the serial MEW'ers of course!) and worry free.

So now the current generation is leaving home, surprise, they can't afford to buy a house. Either could we, so no change there then. They can't get jobs. Either could we in '79, so no change there then. they can't see a way out of the daily grind. Either could we, so no change there then..... You get the picture, I'm sure.

What the current crop of 21 year olds should be looking for (Gawd help 'em!) is their Maggie. Their economic hard-liner thet'll drag them out of this mire that the previous generation has got them into. So did we in '79, so no change there then...

I guess what I'm saying is.... grow a pair! Like we did in '79

[mrfooty]

I wouldn't of read all that boll0x. I'd have opened the envelope opened the card to drop the money out. Quickly scanned the bottom to see who it was from. Then ******ed off down the pub with my mates with the said money to get wan kered.

Who the ****** writes that kind of shite in a 21st birthday card.

[scottbeard]

I am sure that you are looking to the future with confidence and that you expect that you will have a better life than the generation that has preceded you.

Unfortunately, this is not going to be the case. There is a small problem in the UK at the moment called a house price bubble. Housing is so expensive that you are never going to be able to afford to live in the same type of house that your parents were able to afford

Isn't it more likely that the anomaly in house prices will correct in the next 1-5 years than current 21 year olds will be "priced out" for their whole lives?

It's not just house prices though, there's been a lot of inflation elsewhere in the economy too e.g. energy, food, real life entertainment (drinking in pubs/concert/cinema/sports tickets). A lot of it is related to the cost of commercial property though.

But that is a global phenomenon caused by the strain on the limited resources of planet Earth. There is only so much food and oil the Earth can give humankind, and if the Chinese and Indians get more (which is only fair when you look at the disparity now) we have to get less.

[Pick It Down]

There is only so much food and oil the Earth can give humankind, and if the Chinese and Indians get more (which is only fair when you look at the disparity now) we have to get less.

Why would output be fixed?

[LuckyOne]

Isn't it more likely that the anomaly in house prices will correct in the next 1-5 years than current 21 year olds will be "priced out" for their whole lives?

That is a really tough question to answer.

The longer younger people delay thinking about moving, the more their lives become entrenched wherever they are are the more difficult it becomes to overcome the inertia in their lives.

Prices "should" go much lower on any logical basis. Unfortunately the madness of crowds and other delusions might mean that this won't happen very quickly.

[scottbeard]

Why would output be fixed?

There is a fixed amount of land in the world, and moreover there is a fixed amount of oil. We may not (quite) have hit the absolute limit, but we are there or thereabouts.

[aa3]

That does however assume that house prices stay at the same hugely inflated level forever.

If prices drop 40%+ from peak (in real terms) then suddenly it looks a hell of a lot more affordable.

Good point. That alone would take us most of the way there.

I'm starting to lean back towards being a hardcore deflationista.. as the powers taht be are never going to allow wage increases or increased benefits.. So the other way to adjust to a new balance is for the bottom to fall out on prices.

[LuckyOne]

I wouldn't of read all that boll0x. I'd have opened the envelope opened the card to drop the money out. Quickly scanned the bottom to see who it was from. Then ******ed off down the pub with my mates with the said money to get wan kered.

Who the ****** writes that kind of shite in a 21st birthday card.

I seem to live in a different world to you.

When I was young, I asked friends, friends' parents, dad, mum, aunts, uncles, grandparents, teachers and just about everyone else that I could think of for advice and opinions almost constantly. They really helped me sort out the way that I saw the world.

To-day, my kids' friends and my friends' kids ask me for advice almost constantly. They take some of it and ignore some of it.

Perhaps one of the things that is wrong with the world to-day is that a lot of people have disengaged from a multi-generational approach drawing on family and social networks to trying to solve problems and think about the future.