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Spirit

Land Registry Results

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Meanwhile, the housing market in England is at its weakest since Tony Blair was elected prime minister, according to Land Registry figures released tomorrow.

The average property has risen in value by just 5.4% over the past year — half the rate of growth recorded at the beginning of 2005. Prices are currently increasing at their lowest rate since autumn 1996. The typical property now costs £184,872.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2090-1724913,00.html

EDIT: Sorry Wrongmove - just noticed your post!

Edited by Spirit

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Guest wrongmove

No problem. The news is probably worth a thread of its own, if it turns out to be correct. The figures given are very detailed and look genuine.

Looking at webmasters history of LR figures, http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-land-registry.php

unless prices grow by £3k in this quarter (July-Sep), the next LR figures will be YoY negative.

Q3 2004: £187,971 (LR figure)

Q2 2005: £184,872 (from Times article)

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Guest consa
No problem. The news is probably worth a thread of its own, if it turns out to be correct. The figures given are very detailed and look genuine.

Looking at webmasters history of LR figures, http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-land-registry.php

unless prices grow by £3k in this quarter (July-Sep), the next LR figures will be YoY negative.

Q3 2004: £187,971 (LR figure)

Q2 2005: £184,872 (from Times article)

That will be what we are waiting for!! :)

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Hmm, not looking very crashy. Mitigating factors are:

- some areas of England and Wales are probably still rising fast (falls are spreading out from London), which is supporting the average.

- the LR data is very laggy, a lot of negative things have come out since June.

- at the most bullish, this can only be described as stagnation in nominal terms (= mild falls in real terms).

frugalista

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The average property has risen in value by just 5.4% over the past year — half the rate of growth recorded at the beginning of 2005. Prices are currently increasing at their lowest rate since autumn 1996. The typical property now costs £184,872.

This average house price comes from the average price of all the houses sold over the period? If so this is has bias:

The regions with rising prices will have a higher volume of sales than regions with falling prices, artificially lifting the average price.

Record low numbers of 1st time buyers without a record low number of buyers overall means a higher proportion of non-FTB. Non-FTBs tend to buy more expensive property so the average will be artificially pulled up by the relatively higher volume of sales of more expensive properties.

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Hmm, not looking very crashy.

No, but a 0.7% quarter on quarter (£183,486 to £184,872) at the busiest time of the year is tiny. Will be interesting to see what's happened regionally.

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No, but a 0.7% quarter on quarter (£183,486 to £184,872) at the busiest time of the year is tiny. Will be interesting to see what's happened regionally.

I look forward to seeing the reports tomorrow morning.....no doubt transactions will be still be pretty low.

I don't expect it to see big movements in price in my own area (every little helps, though :) ), but areas like Wales will be interesting to look at, given the reports of big price drops there.

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Guest The_Oldie
Jim Buckle, managing director of Propertyfinder.com, said that the statistics suggested that property sales were now on a firmer footing: “With interest rates now firmly on a downward path, there is no reason to fear a crash and people can feel confidence to move again.”

A piece of spin worthy of Alistair Campbell there :(.

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This is not what I want to hear

The number of properties sold in the second quarter fell by an annual 27.7 percent to 216,890, but this was a marked improvement from Q1, when turnover plummeted 35 percent on the year to 159,116.

Improved transaction levels are the last thing we want!!

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...ANDREGISTRY.xml

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Hmm, not looking very crashy. Mitigating factors are:

- some areas of England and Wales are probably still rising fast (falls are spreading out from London), which is supporting the average.

- the LR data is very laggy, a lot of negative things have come out since June.

- at the most bullish, this can only be described as stagnation in nominal terms (= mild falls in real terms).

frugalista

Hi,

well yes, but shoudn't we consider the rate of change as well double digit increase last year to a start of price decrease. This is very encouraging.

I know the extrapolation is abit pushy as increase slowing down is probably easier process than price decrease, but, imagine for a second this change but starting from zero?!

TWT

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Transactions confirm what we already know: the market is dead, even if price falls are yet to show up in the figures.

London Q2/2000: 41821

London Q2/2001: 43335

London Q2/2002: 47550

London Q2/2003: 34758 (remember, abnormally low due to Iraq)

London Q2/2004: 46150

London Q2/2005: 26249

YoY fall off in transactions: 44%

Think I might start looking at that CWD short again..

Edited by Van

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Could this not be explained by the fact that over the past five years we have had a frenzied market due to high price inflation.

It was not a normal market by any stretch of the imagination and can therefore not be used as a benchmark.

There must be a stage where we just reach a normal market, maybe that is the stage where we are today.

Prices are certainly not rising in my area but they are also not falling yet they are selling.

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Could this not be explained by the fact that over the past five years we have had a frenzied market due to high price inflation.

It was not a normal market by any stretch of the imagination and can therefore not be used as a benchmark.

There must be a stage where we just reach a normal market, maybe that is the stage where we are today.

Prices are certainly not rising in my area but they are also not falling yet they are selling.

Yes, it's true that in the last 5 years we've had an unprecedented boom. But consider this: the boom fueled a massive growth in the number of new EAs cropping up everywhere. As long as the overall pie size was increasing, there was still enough for more agents to take a bite. Now the boom is over, the number of agents are the same, but the pie size is shrinking.

What do they do next? In a buyer's market they must negotiate sellers down to increase volume, otherwise they starve.

Edited by Van

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- at the most bullish, this can only be described as stagnation in nominal terms (= mild falls in real terms).

I tend to disagree with that comment (suprised?).

Me, I don't care what real prices are doing, infact, I'd like to see real prices come off a bit to ensure the market is sustainable. I care much more about nominal prices.

Think of it this way, the property investment way, as long as the market is rising in nominal terms, a geared property is making its owner plenty of money.

For example, a £300k property with a £250k mortgage just made its owner £16+k by rising from £300k to £316k.

That £16k is very nice indeed IMO and is a 32% increase on the owners equity.

So property is doing badly then?

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I tend to disagree with that comment (suprised?).

Me, I don't care what real prices are doing, infact, I'd like to see real prices come off a bit to ensure the market is sustainable. I care much more about nominal prices.

Think of it this way, the property investment way, as long as the market is rising in nominal terms, a geared property is making its owner plenty of money.

For example, a £300k property with a £250k mortgage just made its owner £16+k by rising from £300k to £316k.

That £16k is very nice indeed IMO and is a 32% increase on the owners equity.

So property is doing badly then?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...county37.stm?fq

It is in London... look at those Q on Q figures...

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...county37.stm?fq

It is in London... look at those Q on Q figures...

For my precise location in Wandsworth (sorry, won't give out the exact postcode so nobody will be able to verify my figures :( )

Wandsworth

Average Cost: £348,322

Detached: £1,255,875

Semi-detached: £691,702

Terraced: £443,838

Flat: £268,219

Change in last quarter: 8%

Change in last year: 2.8%

Sales: 994

So I feel pretty relaxed about this & I know from local knowledge that the numbers are being held back by flats in the area falling a little.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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For my precise location in Wandsworth (sorry, won't give out the exact postcode so nobody will be able to verify my figures  :(  )

So I feel pretty relaxed about this & I know from local knowledge that the numbers are being held back by flats in the area falling a little.

Yeah, should have said that page was pointing at flats. But who buys flats? And who underpins the market? Yup, FTBs. Without them it all goes tits up sooner or later.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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