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English Rose

Question For Bulls...

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Genuinely curious about this one.

I'd be really interested in hearing what the bulls on here think is going to happen in the medium term to property prices.

I can understand an argument that they may not collapse in the short term BUT...

With prices so massively out of kilter with peoples incomes, and inflation way too low to shrink the debt in the next few years, I can't see houses reaching a genuinely affordable level before a recession does hit. When highly indebted people lose their jobs I can't see how that would fail to cause a crash.

Bullish opinions please!

R

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I'm not a bull and I think my post may end up asking more questions rather than providing answers but here goes anyway:-

I've just been talking to my LL who bought last year and has had the place valued since and the price has fallen. Yesterday he conceded that the housing market will crash, today he is talking it back up again.

Firstly - "They" won't let it happen. "They" can't afford to.

Secondly - Only people higher up the ladder i.e. 250k will suffer if they want to upgrade. However he is sure that the property market will be brought down, but only to managable levels by the many people who are in 450k type properties who want to downsize

Thirdly - The only market that is moving is FTB's. There are loads of them and will always push the market up. They can afford to buy a property because if you look at a joint income he could go out today and find you a nice terraced at 60k

Forthly - If the FTB's can't afford to buy they are renting (which is dead money) and so this is pushing the BTL market ever upwards. They know this because they have a friend, who is in Leicester, who is making a mint.

Finally - If it did crash, it doesn't matter anyway because he would just declare himself bankrupt and pay 1p per week back for 6 years and then be OK to do what he wanted.

So there you have it. Please take note that points 1-5 are NOT my interpretation of events. However this is a bull perspective. It definitely won't crash and if it does it doesn't matter anyway.

Well, I was speechless. Don't know about you lot.

If you were expecting lots of economics and charts Rose I am afraid you are going to be sorely disappointed.

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I'm not a bull and I think my post may end up asking more questions rather than providing answers but here goes anyway:-

I've just been talking to my LL who bought last year and has had the place valued since and the price has fallen.  Yesterday he conceded that the housing market will crash, today he is talking it back up again.

Firstly - "They" won't let it happen.  "They" can't afford to.

Secondly - Only people higher up the ladder i.e. 250k will suffer if they want to upgrade.  However he is sure that the property market will be brought down, but only to managable levels by the many people who are in 450k type properties who want to downsize

Thirdly - The only market that is moving is FTB's.  There are loads of them and will always push the market up.  They can afford to buy a property because if you look at a joint income he could go out today and find you a nice terraced at 60k

Forthly - If the FTB's can't afford to buy they are renting (which is dead money) and so this is pushing the BTL market ever upwards.  They know this because they have a friend, who is in Leicester, who is making a mint.

Finally - If it did crash, it doesn't matter anyway because he would just declare himself bankrupt and pay 1p per week back for 6 years and then be OK to do what he wanted.

So there you have it.  Please take note that points 1-5 are NOT my interpretation of events.  However this is a bull perspective.  It definitely won't crash and if it does it doesn't matter anyway.

Well, I was speechless.  Don't know about you lot.

If you were expecting lots of economics and charts Rose I am afraid you are going to be sorely disappointed.

You probably realise that your LL is abit of a div so i shant even try to debunk most of that.

Just one though because i dont like the logic envoled...

FTB'rs are priced out of the market, i.e they cannot afford to even get a IO mortgage. A LL still thinks that the FTB'r could afford to pay him enough rent to cover the IO mortgage AND make a profit from themselves?

Sure it works just so long as the LL wants to suppliment the person paying rent, which for some is whats happening now (because of the long term view :lol: ).

LL's will be financially assisting all thier tenants.

Go figure.

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the basic principle of asset-shift is simple enough,as one drops another one rises...there's only a finite amount of money around and it just gets shifted from one place to another......this is why banks are so good at ripping everyone off!!...they know the rules of the game and have a vested interest in making everyone play it!!......which in turn is probably why boom/bust is a much more public exercis than it used to be......so whenever the next boom is in full flow,keep a close eye on the media....because if you are sick to death of property programmes this time around the next induced boom is going to be wall-to-wall programmes!!....tiresome or what!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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