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Slope Of Hope: Note To Ftbs Waiting

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like it was in around 1999 then. property just wasnt on the agenda. only ground force on tv with titchmarsh. no media housing hype. you couldnt make £30k by flipping a house over in 4 months.

thats a long time away - maybe 10 years ?

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When to buy:  no supplements about property in the papers, no TV programmes about property, zero interest in house prices, up or down, anywhere, no forums like this.

Excellent comment.

I bought back in 1998, not because I was astute, but purely

because of circumstances, and looking back, it was indeed a

time when housing was a boring subject - everyone was still

recovering from the effects of the boom-bust and the dust had

well settled and all was quiet.

From the time I bought, the property started to accumulate:

it had been the very bottom of the trough.

(Pig jokes expected.)

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During the Tulip boom many people who couldn't afford flowers were buying paintings to adorn their houses.

When the bubble burst, so did the market for flower art, as people dumped any reminders of the folly.

It will be probably be a good time to buy when your local cabbie/ hair dresser/chippie says property is a terrible investment, and your family are telling you you'd be mad to buy.

That's still a long time fom now.

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As an experienced investor, I just thought I'd share a bit of wisdom about major bear markets with less experienced STRs and FTBs on this forum.

I notice lots of posts and comments about "waiting for a HPC so I can buy".

In reality, the way a bear (declining) market develops, is not a simple downward slide, but drops followed, by long periods of seeming "improvement", then even more catastrophic drops.  Each of these "false dawns" is a TRAP.

You are likely to see, say, prices decline 15% or whatever, then rally for six months, with all the media telling you "the crash is over".  This would be the very WORST time to buy.

The time to buy (if ever, after all why do ordinary uncaring members of the public EVER need to take a view on long term rent expectations versus capital values?) is when so many false dawns have been seen and so many hopes crushed, and so many shirts lost, that any rise is greeted with:  "Oh it will only crash again, forget it, property's a mugs/specialists game!".

When to buy:  no supplements about property in the papers, no TV programmes about property, zero interest in house prices, up or down, anywhere, no forums like this.

A little more eloquently put than my "the sucker punch isnt a single hit , its a combination" :lol:

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Oh one thing i will mention though me2, and with all due respect, your looking at housing from an investment point of view, _most_ people just want a place they can afford (or so they say :unsure: ), so it shouldnt matter to _most_ people if they get thier deposit chewed up abit, or even a little neg eq on thier hands.

What people say and what people do are two differnt things of couse B)

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In 1998 i turned over a property I bought in 1995 with a 40% profit.

I think we hit rock bottom and 1995 was the optimum time to buy as you had not carried it dragging along on the bottom for several years and the only way was up.

You are dead right though, mention property in a pub in those days and you would be leaving with either a fat lip, or wearing the champagne bucket on your head.

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You are dead right though, mention property in a pub in those days and you would be leaving with either a fat lip, or wearing the champagne bucket on your head.

And there'd be no shortage of FTBs in pubs willing to do just that ! :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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