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Guest gryffudd

The Pricking Of

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Guest gryffudd

Bore Da, HPC.

The pricking of the over-inflated Welsh bubble was well overdue. The recent news of the turnaround in fortunes will be welcomed by many. It's basis was without any foundation and people were bound to see through it, eventually. Whether this proves a sudden and immediate deflation or a long drawn-out emission of wind (sorry, but we're not allowed to swear!) remains to be seen. But, it's great news.

Me and Viv (we're as one, Viv and me) are off to Llanddewi Brefi for the day. We like it up there.

Pob hwyl

G

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The pricking of the over-inflated Welsh bubble was well overdue.  The recent news of the turnaround in fortunes will be welcomed by many.

It's very interesting how Wales appears to have been affected first and most dramatically by the bubble burst - Rightmove reported a 6% drop in asking prices last month alone.

It's a lot more dramatic than London which has seen falls but not at this sort of rate.

I hope it's a trend that will spread to the rest of the country soon. If it can happen in Wales then it can happen everywhere else.

There's a lot of "London-watching" going on, but perhaps this time the rest of the country will crash first and London will be one of the last, who knows ?

:D

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Wales will be one of the most spectacular declines simply because it was the one of the most spectacular areas of growth. I remember as the television program "Property ladder" ran on it had to chase the rising market to keep the feel good factor going because the developers seemed to be getting more and more thick and stubborn in not taking the presenters advice. I think they went to Wales once or twice in order to acheive this and the would be developers were rescued from themselves by the fantastic rising market.

It'll all revert back to the norms, nothing can exist without balance.

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I don't have sufficient data to prove it, but I strongly

suspect that property booms, although they begin in London

and ripple outwards, retract from the edge of the ripple,

not from the source.

The trend for property to follow London prices means

that outlying parts have vastly over-inflated prices

which the locality can only sustain for a very short

period.

The reversion to normality is then faster in the outlying

area than in London, which can artificially bolster

unjustified prices with foreign money, investment money

and institutional money.

I would therefore expect Wales to be one of the areas

to collapse the fastest, particularly in view of the

employment situation in Bridgend/Neath/south valleys.

Edited by justanewbie

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Approx 4 years ago took the railway journey up Festt/Nog N.Wales. You get to the top and its a tad desolated. A couple of pubs, shops, really run down. Remember seeing property for sale for buttons, 20K, or in that region. Went there recently still has the same look and fel of desperation that comes from a former mining community that didn`t get the short term "call centre gig". House prices, up....for no reason, no extra jobs unless you count all the ancilliary ones related to HPI.

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Approx 4 years ago took the railway journey up Festt/Nog N.Wales. You get to the top and its a tad desolated. A couple of pubs, shops, really run down. Remember seeing property for sale for buttons, 20K, or in that region.  Went there recently still has the same look and fel of desperation that comes from a former mining community that didn`t get the short term "call centre gig". House prices, up....for no reason, no extra jobs unless you count all the ancilliary ones related to HPI.

I must admit to having doubts about not buying a house at present, but it's places like these that convince me that we're in a major bubble. I presume it must be awful for ftb in such places.

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I am originally from Treorchy, lived in Surrey for years before moving to Bridgend last year. I made a comment to my wife last week about house prices in the Rhondda area; I notice the general state of repair and appearance of properties in the area are worse now than when I was a kid (15 years ago).

So if we are all so much richer because house prices have double in 3 years, then why aren’t keeping owners in the area keeping up with repairs? We all know the answer, no money because of debts.

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S. Wales is an area where economists have been saying for a fair old while that when prices go down certain areas will suffer big time (this is in newspapers and TV).

Typically it'll be the Cardiff (and Swansea) overspill - areas that only started to rocket up in the past few years - like Bridgend, Port Talbot, the Valleys.

The best part is there are still BTL/flipper muppets in places like London who think they can make money in S. Wales valleys.

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As I'm apparenly as one with Viv, here's my response.

MIAOWWWWWWWWWW

If you've got a personality disorder all of a sudden Pat, how about taking it to another forum?

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Guest Riser
I don't have sufficient data to prove it, but I strongly

suspect that property booms, although they begin in London

and ripple outwards, retract from the edge of the ripple,

not from the source.

The trend for property to follow London prices means

that outlying parts have vastly over-inflated prices

which the locality can only sustain for a very short

period.

The reversion to normality is then faster in the outlying

area than in London, which can artificially bolster

unjustified prices with foreign money, investment money

and institutional money.

I would therefore expect Wales to be one of the areas

to collapse the fastest, particularly in view of the

employment situation in Bridgend/Neath/south valleys.

Here is a plot showing the fall in Wales price last time were in phase with the National Trend :

Wales HPI

Edited by Riser

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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