babesagainstmachines Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 10 years of monetary expansion and its still much lower than 10 years ago This will be the decade that house prices go the way of the ftse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 unfortunately, it wasn't this one nice one. Sadly Mr Media, sponsored by zaNuLabour, has omitted that important fact. I know from my matured policies that I got less 99-09 than I put in. Joe shmo Public will not always bother to check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 unfortunately, it wasn't this one This will make a great headline for the media Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban_hymn Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 And that's with the under achievers getting booted out of the index. I wonder what a continuous index plotted from those companies that have stayed the course would look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 And that's with the under achievers getting booted out of the index. I wonder what a continuous index plotted from those companies that have stayed the course would look like? That's a very good point, newcomers should note that the FTSE panel include companies that return growth reflected in their share price positively. That then I think I am right in saying means institutional shareholder funds are compelled to purchase quantities of top FTSE companies, further propelling the share price at least for a while. This feeds in on itself. It is something you have to skilfully try to ride if a private investor doing share deals. Now may not be the time to have a go at it, as this rally seems shall we say rather optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban_hymn Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 Markets seem to alternate between Bull and sideways. It's been sideways since 2000. Looking at charts of the major indices it would have paid you handsomely to have traded rather than hang tough. Nothing will change until 2017 I don't think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 Markets seem to alternate between Bull and sideways. It's been sideways since 2000. Looking at charts of the major indices it would have paid you handsomely to have traded rather than hang tough. Nothing will change until 2017 I don't think. sideways? with 2% inflation.? 1500 points down? for sideays the ftse would need to be 8281 TODAY to have the same value in real terms @2% inflation its 5412...... a 2800 drop in real terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban_hymn Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 sideways? with 2% inflation.? 1500 points down? You might find this interesting or maybe not... ".....Before we dive into returns though, there is much to learn here. Note the periods of time. From the 1929 top to the 1966 top, one full Long Valuation Wave marched through. It ran 36.3 years in duration. The next wave started immediately after and ran from 1966 to the blisteringly high 2000 top. It, rather uncannily, weighed in at exactly 33.9 years, a perfect match with our conceptual 34-year valuation cycle. These waves are symmetrical when measured trough-to-trough as well, just as they ought to be. From the 1949 bottom to the 1982 bottom the full wave ran 33.1 years, a third of a century. As you digest this chart and ponder the blue waves above, realize that these Long Valuation Waves are real. They are not mere vain academic babblings like the goofy Efficient Market Hypothesis, these are real forces driving real markets. Investors only ignore them at their own great peril. With a full wavelength running about 34 years, a half wavelength is, amazingly enough, about 17 years. These half wavelengths are rendered above and the most recent three since 1949 have been right on target in duration. These half-waves represent major secular trends in stocks, bull markets if the valuation-wave crest is approaching and bear markets if the valuation-wave trough is approaching. The Great Bull in US stocks from 1982 to 2000 was a 17.4-year secular bull riding an incoming Long Valuation Wave....." http://www.zealllc.com/2005/longwave2.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted January 1, 2010 Share Posted January 1, 2010 You might find this interesting or maybe not... ".....Before we dive into returns though, there is much to learn here. Note the periods of time. From the 1929 top to the 1966 top, one full Long Valuation Wave marched through. It ran 36.3 years in duration. The next wave started immediately after and ran from 1966 to the blisteringly high 2000 top. It, rather uncannily, weighed in at exactly 33.9 years, a perfect match with our conceptual 34-year valuation cycle. These waves are symmetrical when measured trough-to-trough as well, just as they ought to be. From the 1949 bottom to the 1982 bottom the full wave ran 33.1 years, a third of a century. As you digest this chart and ponder the blue waves above, realize that these Long Valuation Waves are real. They are not mere vain academic babblings like the goofy Efficient Market Hypothesis, these are real forces driving real markets. Investors only ignore them at their own great peril. With a full wavelength running about 34 years, a half wavelength is, amazingly enough, about 17 years. These half wavelengths are rendered above and the most recent three since 1949 have been right on target in duration. These half-waves represent major secular trends in stocks, bull markets if the valuation-wave crest is approaching and bear markets if the valuation-wave trough is approaching. The Great Bull in US stocks from 1982 to 2000 was a 17.4-year secular bull riding an incoming Long Valuation Wave....." http://www.zealllc.c...5/longwave2.htm very interesting, need to review when pain behind eyes recedes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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