Halifax +0.2% (sa) Yoy +2.3%

[Guest wrongmove]

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...2005(Final).pdf

But according to Kon from the Motley Fool:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9462921&sort=whole

KoN is ususlly very meticulous.

[Rapid Descent]

I have to admit, having looked at the data, there is something screwy going on there. The calc is easy to check - July 05 / July 04

e.g. NSA => 165775/163505 = 1.0139 = 1.39%

(SA should be identical to NSA on year-on-year calcs except when they fudge their seasonal adjustment)

That puts a very interesting colour on it bearing in mind there is a +1.3% to come out in two months time

[fdk]

A quote from the Sky news story currently appearing in the BLOG is:

"It says house prices rose by 0.2% in July, while the three-month annual rate of increase slowed to 2.3% - the lowest since April 1996"

What does the THREE-MONTH ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE mean ? Is that different from the regular annual increase ?

[Rapid Descent]

Very good question fdk!

I wonder if they are averaging over the quarter and comparing (for example) May/Jun/Jul 05 with May/Jun/Jul 04?

Indeed if we do the calcs:

(162994+162693+162424)./(160786+159058+157326) = 1.0229, or a 2.29% increase

Seems like you've cracked it fdk! Interesting though to note that this makes the metric even laggy, and still includes rises from May/Jun '04

Edited to note: KingOfNowhere seems to have noticed this at around the same time; also May '04 has a BIG increment that will be coming out of the year-on-year calcs next month

Edited August 5, 2005 by Rapid Descent

[fdk]

What we want is a high prior year comparable to make this years figures look like a small increase, or even a decrease. Losing May 04 from the calcs therefore isn't a good thing.

It certainly demonstrates that it may take a little while longer than we'd hoped for the YoY figures to go negative, because of the 'lagging' nature of the calculations.

If you look at the 3 month rolling average for Jun/Jul/Aug 2004 from KoN's figures you get.

159058 + 160786 + 160584 / 3 = 160143

In order to get a nil percentage three month rolling change reported for Aug 2005 compared to Aug 2004, you would need an August monthly value of £154,741.

162693 + 162994 + (X) /3

This seems very unlikely.

[Rapid Descent]

In order to get a nil percentage three month rolling change reported for Aug 2005 compared to Aug 2004, you would need an August monthly value of £154,741.

This seems very unlikely.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you are right, until the +2.1% from Dec/Jan 2005 work their way out the Halifax figures could have a positive edge to them.

However the other indices are going -ve and this might dent confidence enough to accelerate the falls, which will do it for us - but, as you say, probably not in August!

[theChuz]

I think you are right, until the +2.1% from Dec/Jan 2005 work their way out the Halifax figures could have a positive edge to them.

However the other indices are going -ve and this might dent confidence enough to accelerate the falls, which will do it for us - but, as you say, probably not in August!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

what does -ve mean?

[Guest boredwaiting]

what does -ve mean?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

negative

[theChuz]

negative

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In what 'area' like why not '-' instead of -ve?

[Rapid Descent]

Ooops sorry

Electronic engineer's shorthand, -ve = negative, +ve = positive

Force of habit

[dapperdave]

In what 'area' like why not '-' instead of -ve?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

just a - is hyphen

[IMupNorth]

This Crash thing, its not happening is it ?

Can any of you bears tell me when its going to start happening - I'll accept any 3 month spell of -1% falls, in a row as a good indication somethings happening.

This Crash thing seems to have the profile of a beermat !

[Jason]

When did the Halifax move to a 3month YOY average?

I don't think they have always done it like this? Have they?

[Rapid Descent]

This Crash thing, its not happening is it ?

Can any of you bears tell me when its going to start happening - I'll accept any 3 month spell of -1% falls, in a row as a good indication somethings happening.

This Crash thing seems to have the profile of a beermat !

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

UK-wide will take a while - Scotland and NI boomed quite late, and these are skewing the statistics.

But in London and the South East it is getting close.

Not quite at crash-cruise speed yet, we are seeing around -1% per quarter rather than -1% per month (e.g. Halifax, Hometrack figures), overvalued stock, supply significantly outstripping demand, increasing debt problems. But property crashes take years to play out.

Most people believe when the bulk of the indices show year-on-year negative there will be a renewed fall in confidence. Hometrack is very negative already; Rightmove will be there soon (+0.2% last month). Halifax and Nationwide, both of which are well reported, will be later as they are more biased towards the north (later falls).

The exact timing isn't really important, the crash is playing out, perhaps taking a little longer than we would like (I would like sensible prices tomorrow, but it ain't gonna happen that way). Just gotta be patient.

Edited August 5, 2005 by Rapid Descent

[Sledgehead]

A quote from the Sky news story currently appearing in the BLOG is:

"It says house prices rose by 0.2% in July, while the three-month annual rate of increase slowed to 2.3% - the lowest since April 1996"

What does the THREE-MONTH ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE mean ? Is that different from the regular annual increase ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Forgive me for pointing this out, but the 3month annual rate has been pointed out before.

Hopefully somebody will now tell me that pointing out that the 3 month growth rate was used, had previously been pointed out. In this way we can reduce the entire forum to a set of inwardly spriralling repeats that eventually collapse upon themselves, taking the housing bubble with it.

SH will return from the 5th dimension in due course.

[Johnny]

This Crash thing, its not happening is it ?

Can any of you bears tell me when its going to start happening - I'll accept any 3 month spell of -1% falls, in a row as a good indication somethings happening.

This Crash thing seems to have the profile of a beermat !

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

IUM, take a look at this forum post :-

Estate agents dispel fears of property crash.

Negative equity trap concern as new figures show big drop in house prices

Local estate agents have allayed fears on an impending property crash following the release of recent figures which indicate a dramtic nine per cernt plummet in property prices in south west Surrey

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13392

============================================

9% drop in house prices..... somethings happening and now bankruptcies worse for 45 years. Just give it till just after xmas , I think you'll see something big start happening.