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House Prices Up In July

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Guest consa
surely the bearings on the drum will soon start to wear out,wobble then sieze up still then they will throw the old machine out and replace it with a new one.............. :D  :D

Sesonally adjusted again!!, timed just after the news yesterday, they even had posters with reduced rates for mortgages in their windows ready to go up as soon as the news was released.

This stinks of how desperate they are to revive the market!!

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I can't be bothered to look at those figures.

Watford

Hemel Hempstead

St Albans

Garston

Hatfield.

All these area's have FOR SALE boards littered all over the place.

I don't need a report to tell me anything, I have my eyes. :)

It REALLY is happening out there, a fact that can't be denied.

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The only thing to take heart from this is that as soon as the YOY figure goes negative it will be all over the press. They love a good juicy story and that will be one of them.

I'm sure if old Ayman al-Zawahri hadn't piped up yesterday there might have been a lot more made of the rate cut. But I'm suprised about how bearish and relatively badly the cut has been reported, sure we had the usual great for home owners but it seems to have been taken as a bad sign rather than a good one.

I think the figures are somewhat perverted by the fact that there is a big drop in the low prices FTB types of properties, if the rate cut does bring back some of the FTB market then this will pull the figures down again (down from 0.2% that is).

Anyway lets not get too worried about a 0.2% increase, I think on any given month the figures could be -0.5% to -0.5% what's reported.

The big one will be the Land Registry figures which I think could come as a shock to many people.

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I can't be bothered to look at those figures.

Watford

Hemel Hempstead

St Albans

Garston

Hatfield.

All these area's have FOR SALE boards littered all over the place.

I don't need a report to tell me anything, I have my eyes. :)

It REALLY is happening out there, a fact that can't be denied.

Indeed - Halifax figures for London+the SE of England show falling house prices already year-on-year but they only release these figures quarterly <_<

BUT - could there be an error in this months press release?

Edited to note: no error, Halifax just have a peculiar way of calculating their yoy stats that makes them even more laggy! Part of May '04s BIG increase is still being integrated into the year on year calculation!

Edited by Rapid Descent

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All Halifax and Nationwide news should be totally ignored. It's worth looking through the news headlines during the 90's crash to see how confusing Halifax and Nationwide made things. Take these two headlines for example, less than one month apart. Halifax might have given the impression that things were OK when in reality they definitely weren't, it's the same this time and just unfortunate that Halifax and Nationwide are given so much weight in the news.

The Times

WED 07 JUN 1989

Bigger rise;House prices

UK House prices rose by 1.7per cent last month compared with 1.2per cent in April, in spite of stagnant or falling prices in the Midlands and South, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. HOME NEWS

The Times

SAT 01 JUL 1989

Owners drop house prices by 20% to encourage sales

House prices are being cut by thousands of pounds to sell properties that have been on estate agents' books since last year. Vendors, still influenced by last summer's prices, are having to reduce asking prices by as much as 20per cent to sell, accor...

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I just checked HBOS' latest data - although their announcement says annual rises of 2.3% their seasonally-adjusted numbers actually show a 1.37% rise for the last 12 months (they calculated a three-month average not a strict 12-month change - the average of 3.24% for the 12 months to May, 2.29% for June and 1.37% for July).

Much of this VERY modest rise will obviously be from the significant rally going on in Northern Ireland (and to a lesser extent in Scotland) over the last 12 months (so disguising the bleaker picture for England and Wales).

Interesting times.

However, HPCers should realistically not get too excited about their numbers going negative too quickly (given this "adjustment" to basic 12-month calculations).

Based on their seasonally adjusted monthly data (nationally), the end July 2005 standard price of £162,994 would need to fall below £154,700 for them to announce a negative 12-month figure in August. That's just ove a 5% fall next month, which I think we can all agree is not going to happen.

Back in the real world, a more feasible 1.5% would do it (2.5% if you use non-seasonally adjusted numbers).

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Guest consa
consa

:lol:  the seasonal adjustment is zero for july, get your facts right  :lol:  That means your pathetic attempt at throwing the halifax results out as spin are just that .. pathetic B)

You numpty, the Halifax and nationwide figure are definately distorted and we all know halifax is NI/ Scotland biased, it is just what I said SPIN SA or not, also the low volumes distort the figures dramatically which has been thrashed out on another thread, so if you want to take this as fact it is up to you but I would suggest we await the LR figs, "brain before mouth" ring any bells it's probably been said to you before!! :rolleyes:

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Guest consa
consa

:lol:  the seasonal adjustment is zero for july, get your facts right  :lol:  That means your pathetic attempt at throwing the halifax results out as spin are just that .. pathetic B)

Can you show me where the SA shows zero? not denying it but it clearly states on the report that the figure is Seasonally adjusted and I am confused why they show this when they don't do it!! up or down

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I see they're saying affordability is now 'average'. Hmm, wonder why ftb's have deserted the market and key workers can't afford anything anywhere.

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Recent figures provide further signs of a steady improvement in housing market activity in recent months. The number of loans approved for house purchase in Quarter 2 was 10% higher than in Quarter 1, according to the latest Bank of England figures.

Well yeah, technically I got a mortgage approved in Q2 but I didn't go through with the purchase... similar to the story in this thread.

As an FTB the first thing I do is speak to the bank and get their randomly plucked figure approved. Then I go to the EAs, take a look at the properties, say holy sh!t that's a lot for a 1 bed flat and walk away.

I want to see the LR figures.

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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