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TheLittleGuy

The "you Are Here" Hpc Graph

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I'm concerned that information is being omitted by this site if it does not conform to crash projections.

To prove my point here is the current version of the Nationwide chart. An older version was used for the "You Are Here" graphic in the home page. As you can see, the new version is less HPC compatible, and so it's been ignored.

hp_now.gif

post-77-1123172321_thumb.jpg

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You'd need to see the Hometrack chart in perspective. It shows the drop in demand from the peak of last years mania. If you took that chart over a period of 10 years you'd see that demand is at low but sustainable levels. Furthermore it pre-dates recent reports of increased transactions (not to mention todays IR drop). Oh, and Hometrack as a VERY strong South East/London bias.

The BBC chart shows House Price Inflation, not prices. It tells us that the rate at which house prices are RISNG is decreasing.

Don't get me wrong; the housing market has definitely cooled off but it's not crashing, no matter how much you'd like it to be.

Edited by TheLittleGuy

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Sales volumes in cornwall at least are at their lowest levels for 10 years i've just plotted the data this afternoon but can't work out how to post the graphs from exel :blink:

Phil

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I'm concerned that information is being omitted by this site if it does not conform to crash projections.

To prove my point here is the current version of the Nationwide chart. An older version was used for the "You Are Here" graphic in the home page. As you can see, the new version is less HPC compatible, and so it's been ignored.

hp_now.gif

In what way is it "less HPC compatible"?

To my simple mind it suggests UK house prices are massively above trend (in relation to the nation's real wealth) and at an unprecedented high... and that each time this has happened there has, sooner or later, been a marked correction.

Presumably you mean because it hasn't fallen in a straight line?

Perhaps I need to hone my conspiracy theorist skills but I'd imagine it hasn't been updated yet (I haven't looked today but the last time I visited the front page I noticed Wriggleroom's downgrading of his prediction for 2005 UK house prices had also not been updated).

Could our dear webmaster have had other things to deal with?

Like a site that has had such an increase in traffic that it couldn't cope?

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Guest Riser
You'd need to see the Hometrack chart in perspective. It shows the drop in demand from the peak of last years mania. If you took that chart over a period of 10 years you'd see that demand is at low but sustainable levels. Furthermore it pre-dates recent reports of increased transactions (not to mention todays IR drop). Oh, and Hometrack as a VERY strong South East/London bias.

The BBC chart shows House Price Inflation, not prices. It tells us that the rate at which house prices are RISNG is decreasing.

Don't get me wrong; the housing market has definitely cooled off but it's not crashing, no matter how much you'd like it to be.

Hometrack excludes Scotland and Northern Ireland whose markets are different to England and Wales in many ways. They produce a seperate report for London.

House Price Inflation HPI is directly related to Prices and the trend is clear.

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You'd need to see the Hometrack chart in perspective. It shows the drop in demand from the peak of last years mania. If you took that chart over a period of 10 years you'd see that demand is at low but sustainable levels. Furthermore it pre-dates recent reports of increased transactions (not to mention todays IR drop). Oh, and Hometrack as a VERY strong South East/London bias.

The BBC chart shows House Price Inflation, not prices. It tells us that the rate at which house prices are RISNG is decreasing.

Don't get me wrong; the housing market has definitely cooled off but it's not crashing, no matter how much you'd like it to be.

Perhaps I'm reading their graph incorrectly, but it seems to say CLEARLY that > 100 = Excess Demand. Given many housing market bulls highlight the total supply/demand imbalance as a key reason why house prices will not correct, how would that square with a graph showing there is definitely no "excess demand" and, indeed, quite the opposite (a hefty fall off in demand accompnaied by a notable increase in supply).

Do you want to post that chart you've described?

Or would you prefer us to just take your word for it?

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In what way is it "less HPC compatible"?

To my simple mind it suggests UK house prices are massively above trend (in relation to the nation's real wealth) and at an unprecedented high... and that each time this has happened there has, sooner or later, been a marked correction.

Presumably you mean because it hasn't fallen in a straight line?

Perhaps I need to hone my conspiracy theorist skills but I'd imagine it hasn't been updated yet (I haven't looked today but the last time I visited the front page I noticed Wriggleroom's downgrading of his prediction for 2005 UK house prices had also not been updated).

Could our dear webmaster have had other things to deal with?

Like a site that has had such an increase in traffic that it couldn't cope?

I'm not suggesting a conspiracy; obviously it just needs updating. However I've seen the same graphic used frequently by posters to suggest that we're on the edge of a cliff. I'm suggesting that people are happy to have a graphic that agrees with their views.

The updated chart's been available for a while, but it hasn't been featured. Why is that, do you think? You can bet your **** that if it HAD shown a steep drop people would've been showing all over this forum.

Perhaps I'm reading their graph incorrectly, but it seems to say CLEARLY that > 100 = Excess Demand. Given many housing market bulls highlight the total supply/demand imbalance as a key reason why house prices will not correct, how would that square with a graph showing there is definitely no "excess demand" and, indeed, quite the opposite (a hefty fall off in demand accompnaied by a notable increase in supply).

Do you want to post that chart you've described?

Or would you prefer us to just take your word for it?

Go to the Motley Fool Property Trends forum and read some of the stuff KingofNowhere has posted. He's done a lot of work on this and has extensive stats going back over 10 years. They're all there if you care to look.

Alternatively you can do what you've done; look at a single graph from a single source covering a single year and make all of your decisions based on that.

House Price Inflation HPI is directly related to Prices and the trend is clear.

Well, so long as the trend is clear, eh? Forget the recent increase in (non MEW) mortgages. Forget todays IR drop.

I hope HPI does go negative soon, but that trend does not account for recent events.

Edited by TheLittleGuy

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Alternatively you can do what you've done; look at a single graph from a single source covering a single year and make all of your decisions based on that.

Erm, I don't want to be rude but can you FUG OFF with that deciding what it is that I'VE done... YOU CANT!

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Erm, I don't want to be rude but can you FUG OFF with that deciding what it is that I'VE done... YOU CANT!
I can't what? Do you mean decide? Does making decisions based on current data, and being aware that things are not clear cut, seem dumb to you? Do you think it's better to make a decision and then stick to it regardless?

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I think LG had some very good points and the fact is that this forum ismeant to have a balanced view.

The fact that the web name is housepricecrash means that the forum needs a whiter than white image. The graph needs to be updated for this reason especially if the graph might show evidence contrary to an HPC.

Also you need sensible discussion. If someone does not aggree with one persons graph or stats then the sensible way to counter that is with stats showing a different view. I dont think that derisory comments about the post are constructive.

The more of this that goes on the less respectible the site will become.

I sell household goods and have STRed to offset the risks.

P

Edited by planit

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Go to the Motley Fool Property Trends forum and read some of the stuff KingofNowhere has posted

Can you find the KoN post that supports your argument and post/link to it here please? KoN has produced more statistics than the ONS and the VI's put together (hyperbole).

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I'd also like to point out that the graph shows one thing for ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY:

It really is different this time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did tell you, but most of you weren't interested....... :(

Please give it a rest. It was different last time, and the time before, and the time before that too.

If you're stupid enough to risk your retirement pot on an investment which some experts believe is about to fall through the floor, that's up to you, but, for obvious reasons, nobody here is impressed.

Edited by NJP

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I'd also like to point out that the graph shows one thing for ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY:

It really is different this time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did tell you, but most of you weren't interested....... :(

Yes...it's!!!!! very!!!! different!!! this!!! time!!!!. The distance between the last trough and the current peak is wider than ever in history. I'm telling you now but you won't be interested either.......... :lol:

VP

PS !!!!!!! to you too :D

Edited by VacantPossession

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It is different this time for various reasons. The main three are:

No housing boom has lasted so long or gone so high before turning. This one is gargantuan.

No credit boom has lasted so long or gone so high. This one is gargantuan, and it still hasn't turned.

All housing busts have occured in an economic environment that was causing widespread distress. This reverse is true now.

One way or another, house prices WILL come down now because they are unaffordable. The only question is how far and how fast. If it's fast (crash) there will be real nominal drops. If it's slow (stagnation) then inflation will devalue property but nominal prices will change little.

At the moment the evidence clearly supports stagnation, but since this situation IS different then who knows what'll happen. If the credit bubble bursts then the whole game might change. That's why I think it's so important to be looking at recent data when debating a HPC.

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As you can see, the new version is less HPC compatible, and so it's been ignored.

I don't think the new version is less HPC compatible at all. It still shows house prices well above their long term trend, and thus that the only way for prices is now down.

But since you mention it, on my site I do try to keep my graphs up to date, and I will probably be updating them again very soon, when time permits.

Keeping it all up-to-date is not a trivial task when you have other things in life to attend to.

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Guest consa

You'd need to see the Hometrack chart in perspective. It shows the drop in demand from the peak of last years mania. If you took that chart over a period of 10 years you'd see that demand is at low but sustainable levels.

I think you will find we are looking to see where the market is heading NOW and use previous crash scenarios as a good indicator, when prices start to go up again, most on here will probably buy- we will be well informed as to when the best time is. Stop being stupid.

Furthermore it pre-dates recent reports of increased transactions (not to mention todays IR drop). Oh, and Hometrack as a VERY strong South East/London bias.

And that is where the crash begins!! so a very good indicator, would you rather use Northern Ireland? I suppose you would.

The BBC chart shows House Price Inflation, not prices. It tells us that the rate at which house prices are RISNG is decreasing.

Do you think it will just stop when it hits 0%, its already negative with homtrack!!

Don't get me wrong; the housing market has definitely cooled off but it's not crashing, no matter how much you'd like it to be.

It will, as soon as neg YOY starts to bite :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Edited by consa

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Don't get me wrong; the housing market has definitely cooled off but it's not crashing, no matter how much you'd like it to be.

Yes it is, just look at all the old newspaper headings on this site from 1988 - 1996 and see how similar the picture looks now to mid 1989. Lots of confusing messages and lots of VI rubbish claiming otherwise but ultimately prices were coming down. The property market is crashing it's just it happens very slowly so it's difficult to see, especially by those that don't want to see it

Edited by munimula

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Here to share your expert opinion again Consa? Still insisting that there will be an imminent 40% crash? Well, let's look at your points.

I think you will find we are looking to see where the market is heading NOW and use previous crash scenarios as a good indicator, when prices start to go up again, most on here will probably buy- we will be well informed as to when the best time is. Stop being stupid.

This had no bearing on the quote you used, but fine. If you look back rationally at the previous market history (not just the crashes) and consider todays situation you'd have to say that {a} we're not crashing and {b} there's immediate reason for a crash. Your idea of information is to trivialise anything you don't agree with and force your ill-informed opinions on everyone you can (willing or not).

How long will you wait if the market stagnates? Do you understand the difference between real and nominal falls? Do you realise that in the last 50 years nominal values have only really fallen once before, and at that time there was severe distress driving the crash?

And that is where the crash begins!! so a very good indicator, would you rather use Northern Ireland? I suppose you would.
London leads the way, that's true. So what? This situation is totally new. After 13 months prices from the peak still haven't gone negative. New mortgages are already rising and we've just had an IR cut.
Do you think it will just stop when it hits 0%, its already negative with homtrack!!
Sure, why not. Again, rising transactions, IR cut, etc. You have NOTHING to support the idea that HPI will continue to fall sharply and now there are indicators that it may slow or even stop falling.
It will, as soon as neg YOY starts to bite
Just because you say it with conviction does not make it true. In fact almost every prediction you've made has been wrong. HPI may well go negative, so what? People won't be suprised and it's not likley to be a rapid fall. THERE IS NO REASON FOR A CRASH. THERE IS NO DISTRESS.

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Just an observation but the Graph seems to show that the Boom / Bust cycle gets longer and further apart each time, and the amplitude also gets bigger each time.

Can antbody explain why that might be ?

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Yes it is, just look at all the old newspaper headings on this site from 1988 - 1996 and see how similar the picture looks now to mid 1989. Lots of confusing messages and lots of VI rubbish claiming otherwise but ultimately prices were coming down. The property market is crashing it's just it happens very slowly so it's difficult to see, especially by those that don't want to see it

Seriously mate, is that your evidence?

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People won't be suprised and it's not likley to be a rapid fall. THERE IS NO REASON FOR A CRASH. THERE IS NO DISTRESS.

All the things they said in the last crash, and the one before that.

House prices do not crash overnight; property is highly illiquid. The crash will be spread over the next 3-5 years and it's currently playing out exactly like the last one.

Edited by Red Baron

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All the things they said in the last crash, and the one before that.

House prices do not crash overnight; property is highly illiquid. The crash will be spread over the next 3-5 years and it's currently playing out exactly like the last one.

...quite right,although it is likely we'll see the infamous "dead cat" bounce happen in the next month or so....but don't be fooled,this is the very last gasp of the mortgage lenders warchest in the figures....we ARE going negative soon!!!!

...look,the HBOS,NW figures are based on ASKING PRICES AND MORTGAGE APPROVALS..........asking prices have been SEVERELY lopped of late but this has yet to filter through to the data!!!....so don't get your hopes up bulls!

...in an earlier post I did a bit of a tech-analysis of mortgage approvals to present data......my conclusion was we are in a re-test pattern of the old trend.....due to test the low of old trend-creating the short-point in the new one(DOWN),with a ceiling of about 100k per month approvals UP UNTIL NEXT MONTH....and then we are going south again FAST)...YOU CAN HOLD ME TO THAT!!!!!

ps....I shorted the FTSE on WEDS!!....my gut feeling for a turn was in the 5350 area(5327 was close enough)...so I'm up there with Bubb & van on charts...please take heed!

Edited by oracle

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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