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88Crash

House Price Boom In Epsom

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After a few quiet months in Epsom (Surrey)

The number of completed sales has jumped up in the last couple of months

My sister in law has just sold her house (SOLD not agreed) for a price that is well up on last year

I know a couple of local EA's quite well and they have seen a marked improvement in completed sales

Now, this may well be a 'deat cat bouce' and this is only one area and Epsom is one of the most expensive areas in the UK, so not exactly representative, but at this moment in time there is NO HPC in Epsom

This is history repeating itself is the last HPC is anything to go by

People on this site are much better informed than the average person

Massive VI interest means most people still think everything is OK

For example, its only people in the building trade, city traders etc, that are aware of all the profit warnings from housebuilders in recent weeks

Add to that, most people in UK own, rather then rent and the 'renting is dead money' is ingrained, regardless of the actual price

people in Epsom said renting is dead money when a 3 bed was 100K and renting the same house was £800 per month (which was correct)

They still think the same when the same house now is £300K and rent is £1200 pm or less

The attitude is that ingrained and won't be seiously chalenged until the market collapses

That will take a while longer, but IMO will not happen until this time next year, for the simple reason that houses are far to expensive

Remember although the last crash started in 88' - it took a couple of years before the majority realised it was REALLY happening (and that included me)

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House Prices have been on the rise since 1996, nine years is a long time which has fixed peoples expectation of future rises. If they were to stand back and look at their house for a second, the bricks, the doors, windows, roof, land, they should consider the fact that it would probably cost less than 100k to build. There is often a rebuild price quoted on buildings insurance.

The only thing that is used to justify the high prices is that wonderful thing called the housing market which they love because it has been good to them for so many years. People want to block out the thought that house prices may fall, once they eventually do accept they are falling then they will start to question how far they will fall, and in a bubble such as this they are likelyto fall a long way, I expect 40-45% over three to four years, the rebuld cost would provide a good base.

House prices will fall this year, says mortgage body

The body representing Britain's mortgage lenders has cut its forecasts for house price growth and now believes property values will fall 2% this year.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders said yesterday that it was now more pessimistic about house prices because conditions in the market had become more "difficult".

Bob Pannell, its head of research, added: "The indications from estate agents and surveyors are that house price weakness is likely to persist for some while." But he said a dramatic collapse in prices was "unlikely".

This chart from hometrack explains why things are "difficult" but with more property on the market, less buyers, and falling prices, it doesn't look like things are going to get better anytime soon.

Hometrack Demand Graph

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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