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I Told You So

What Interest Rate Cut

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LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Back month short sterling interest

rate futures extended losses on Wednesday after a surprise

acceleration in British service sector activity dampened

expectations for more than one rate cut this year.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/NTC

Research services business activity index rose to a three-month

high of 56.3 in July from 55.8, against a forecast dip to 55.4

and well clear of the 50 mark dividing growth and contraction.

Even Reuters are still hanging onto a cut, but how can they after these figures combined with rising inflation.

Definitely no cut and next move up later in the year :lol:

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I think there will be a rate cut, but only because manufacturing and retail are screaming out for them. If the BoE were truely independant and only concerned with inflation, they would be thinking about raising rates.

Whatever, inflation always comes late in the economic cycle, and I expect this time around to be no diferent. The trend for rates over the next few years is still up.

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Whatever, inflation always comes late in the economic cycle, and I expect this time around to be no diferent. The trend for rates over the next few years is still up.

Yes, economically we should be seeing a very gradual rise in IR.

But they dare not do it.

It will crash the housing market.

They will put off the evil day and pander to the politicans.

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The bottom line is that the service sector accounts for 60% or 70% of the economy and it is doing OK, and inflation is rising.

Therefore rates should not be lowered, this is where we see just how much the MPC are in the pockets of the politicians.

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Yes, economically we should be seeing a very gradual rise in IR.

But they dare not do it.

It will crash the housing market.

They will put off the evil day and pander to the politicans.

The best this does is to increase the likelihood of "no change" to give the MPC time to see more data. Then it could get interesting.

I would still gamble on a .25% increase this week however. I think the shock of it not happening now would have too great an impact on the markets and on feel-good factor

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LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Back month short sterling interest

rate futures extended losses on Wednesday after a surprise

acceleration in British service sector activity dampened

expectations for more than one rate cut this year.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/NTC

Research services business activity index rose to a three-month

high of 56.3 in July from 55.8, against a forecast dip to 55.4

and well clear of the 50 mark dividing growth and contraction.

Even Reuters are still hanging onto a cut, but how can they after these figures combined with rising inflation.

Definitely no cut and next move up later in the year :lol:

Sorry, what was there to weep about? You missed me there?

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Obviously way above your head TTRTR;

Howard Archer at Global Insight, a consultancy, said: “The pick-up in service sector activity in July will raise speculation that the Bank of England will return to the sidelines for the rest of the year, after acting on Thursday, while it looks to see if growth is picking up again.”

Malcolm Barr at JP Morgan commented: “The experience of the Madrid bombing had suggested that the services PMI reading was particularly exposed to the impact of the July 7 attacks. So we would interpret the rise as an impressive signal of resilience in UK services activity.”

John Butler at HSBC added: “An interest rate cut in August is far from a foregone conclusion. Better global news in particular may provide an incentive for the MPC to continue their ‘wait-and-see’ approach.”

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fe6a47c2-0407-11d...000e2511c8.html

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Obviously way above your head TTRTR;

Howard Archer at Global Insight, a consultancy, said: “The pick-up in service sector activity in July will raise speculation that the Bank of England will return to the sidelines for the rest of the year, after acting on Thursday, while it looks to see if growth is picking up again.”

Malcolm Barr at JP Morgan commented: “The experience of the Madrid bombing had suggested that the services PMI reading was particularly exposed to the impact of the July 7 attacks. So we would interpret the rise as an impressive signal of resilience in UK services activity.”

John Butler at HSBC added: “An interest rate cut in August is far from a foregone conclusion. Better global news in particular may provide an incentive for the MPC to continue their ‘wait-and-see’ approach.”

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fe6a47c2-0407-11d...000e2511c8.html

Heads I win, tails you lose remember?

Roll on the service sector. No worries about deflation then, up go rents.

Which do you prefer? Higher rents or lower IRs? Me, I don't care either way, but as I've said many a time, there's less squealing if its lower rates.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Back month short sterling interest

rate futures extended losses on Wednesday after a surprise

acceleration in British service sector activity dampened

expectations for more than one rate cut this year.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/NTC

Research services business activity index rose to a three-month

high of 56.3 in July from 55.8, against a forecast dip to 55.4

and well clear of the 50 mark dividing growth and contraction.

Even Reuters are still hanging onto a cut, but how can they after these figures combined with rising inflation.

Definitely no cut and next move up later in the year :lol:

Is this the one where you correctly predicted the IR outlook for August last year & 2005 in general?

:lol::lol::lol:

Yeah, you told us, but you were WRONG.

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TTRTR - why you draggin up old threads? - you took a risk and it paid off - but you know as much as the next guy what's going to happen in the future...

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TTRTR - why you draggin up old threads? - you took a risk and it paid off - but you know as much as the next guy what's going to happen in the future...

Do you realise how many times ITYS has said ITYS?

Too many.

He's worse at predictions than Roger Bootle & needs to be reminded.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Do you realise how many times ITYS has said ITYS?

Too many.

He's worse at predictions than Roger Bootle & needs to be reminded.

How many times have you predicted IR cuts?

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How many times have you predicted IR cuts?

Me? Mmmm, not that many, although I'm very happy to argue the case for a cut.

Here's an interesting snippet for you: Did you know that apparently even though the markt is now seeing a rise by the end of the year, most economists think there'll be a cut? Just something I read a few days ago.

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http://news.independent.co.uk/business/new...ticle361962.ece

Bank holds interest rate again

PA

Published: 04 May 2006

Interest rates were pegged at 4.5% for the ninth month in a row today
amid growing signs that the next move from the Bank of England could be
upwards
.

:)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ea0c50e0-db57-11d...20abe49a01.html

Rate-rise expectations weigh on eurozone bonds

By Paul J Davies in London

Published: May 4 2006 14:22 | Last updated: May 4 2006 14:22

Eurozone bondsInterest rates in the UK and eurozone were both held by the region’s central banks on Thursday, but government bonds took a tumble as
expectations of future rate rises were heightened
.

:):)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4971932.stm

The decision by the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had been widely expected by analysts.
But with the UK housing market looking strong, and manufacturing showing signs of recovery, some think an
increase in rates could be on the horizon.
The Bank of England will be closely watching oil prices, as the rising trend threatens to increase inflation.
Edited by Realistbear

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Personally I would rather have house prices falling significantly along with an IR cut, rather than today's Halifax report and some kind of pyrrhic victory over TTRTR.

:huh:

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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