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Mike Mustard

Inside Information From Banks

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I know someone who is an IT specialist for a major UK bank. He has access to the real data on purchase prices and loan amounts.

During the lunch break he runs some SQL to discover what is really happening in the market. He stores the figures on a spreadsheet.

I am informed that purhase prices and loan amounts have been falling sharply for quite some time.

I apologise that I can't publish the data here. Due to confidentiality agreements this is not possible. Make of that what you will.

What I will say is that this friend is also bemused as to why this movement in the data is not reflected in official releases. He is an expert and knows the data inside out.

:blink:

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I am informed that purhase prices and loan amounts have been falling sharply for quite some time.

I like to comment on the Nationlied and Halifix figures but I'm sure like most here only really regard the Land Registry figures as being anywhere near accurate. Should be interesting read next week.

I apologise that I can't publish the data here.

Darn it ! Feel free to PM me though .... ;);)

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In one sense the LR data is the dog's, but there is one big problem: it's not mix adjusted. Over the very long term, LR is king, but I prefer Haliwide and Nationfax: there is no way they could get away with fudging.

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In one sense the LR data is the dog's, but there is one big problem:  it's not mix adjusted.  Over the very long term, LR is king, but I prefer Haliwide and Nationfax:  there is no way they could get away with fudging.

I've proved twice that Nationwide and Halifax fudge their data as there is no consistency to their seasonal adjustments. Two of us on here have nailed down the seasonal adjustments to within tiny fractions of a percent only to see the entire formula blown to pieces the next month.

If nationwide and halifax are both reporting the truth then why are they both still pulling from a set of data the same size as previous years when we know transactions levels have fallen massively?

Whilst they do use a mix adjusted formula this has also proven to be faulty when involved with low sample sizes.

If they are so correct why have they been so far out of kilter with land registry on the last two reports?

If you watched tonights Real Story on lending practices of the banks you would soon realise the futility of trusting anything these lenders are saying.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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