Does Anyone Else Get The Feeling That The Tide Has Turned ?

[Injin]

at the moment nominally is still real to most people.

well call me thick

"Thick!"

but where are the employers going to find the money from to pay the wages that the staff need to continue if this wall of printed money velocity hits? you suggesting its going to be the public sector workers getting huge salaries that enable them to afford 6x or large joint income mortgages? will bill bin man + claire clerk be buying the homes? is that what you're driving at? the private sector will then need to inflate their wages to maintain their pumps, wheres that money coming from? the consumer? wheres the consumer going to get the extra money from? more borrowing/credit?

sounds like a disaster to me

They won't find the money to pay their employers. That's not how this system works.

To take a typical Zimbabwean example - on the 1st of june you get a tax demand for $10,000,000 and you have $1,000 - you now have to go and hand your real stuff into state officials or work for state officials to get the $10,000,000 to pay the tax bill. Or you lose the house and it goes to auction..where state officials will bid against each other with newly printed banknotes.

The transfer that happens all the time in alow key becomes extremely obvious right at the end.

[Ruffneck]

i have noticed this too through just observing the price of gold this past month or two

absolutely shot right up , yet this large price jump does not seem to be attracting much news in the media...

[loginandtonic]

They won't find the money to pay their employers. That's not how this system works.

To take a typical Zimbabwean example - on the 1st of june you get a tax demand for $10,000,000 and you have $1,000 - you now have to go and hand your real stuff into state officials or work for state officials to get the $10,000,000 to pay the tax bill. Or you lose the house and it goes to auction..where state officials will bid against each other with newly printed banknotes.

The transfer that happens all the time in alow key becomes extremely obvious right at the end.

for those of us not endowed with the ability to understand this long game you mention, could you explain to a pleb (me) how people will afford houses at the current prices if their wages dont rise accordingly? if 150,000 bits of fiat trustmeimabanker paper buys a house now but they only receive 18000 pieces of the stuff a year, thats a over 7x multiple to buy the 150,000 bits of paper property even with the traditional 10% deposit. which employer is going to say "ok clare clerk, heres the 36,000 bits of fiat, a doubling of your salary, you're the best clerk we ever had." ??? no good saying to me Velocity will make the 36K the same as the 18K the year before, i dont understand how the employers + consumers can increase what they part with like that, your zim example does not help me to understand either.

plain english please, an over the head of the pleb examples/analogy not welcome

Edited November 25, 2009 by loginandtonic

[Injin]

for those of us not endowed with the ability to understand this long game you mention, could you explain to a pleb (me) how people will afford houses at the current prices if their wages dont rise accordingly? if 150,000 bits of fiat trustmeimabanker paper buys a house now but they only receive 18000 pieces of the stuff a year, thats a over 7x multiple to buy the 150,000 bits of paper property even with the traditional 10% deposit. which employer is going to say "ok clare clerk, heres the 36,000 bits of fiat, a doubling of your salary, you're the best clerk we ever had." ??? no good saying to me Velocity will make the 36K the same as the 18K the year before, i dont understand how the employers + consumers can increase what they part with like that, your zim example does not help me to understand either.

plain english please, an over the head of the pleb examples/analogies

They won't afford them.

They'll be broke, homeless and hungry. Or paying rent in real stuff such as labour, gold, food, sexual favours, whatever. That's how this plays out if it goes south far enough.

And state officals and insiders will be buying and selling stuff between themselves for millions. Same as it is now, but on steroids.

[loginandtonic]

They won't afford them.

They'll be broke, homeless and hungry. Or paying rent in real stuff such as labour, gold, food, sexual favours, whatever. That's how this plays out if it goes south far enough.

And state officals and insiders will be buying and selling stuff between themselves for millions. Same as it is now, but on steroids.

property will trade for hyperinflated fiat? is that what you think is likely? how do we get there? this jump is not clear at all. you seem to strongly believe in bilderberg style nwo agenda to deliberately bring this about, i hope you are wrong. but i cannot say you are as i am just a simple joe who is a hostage to fortune + what dreams may come (or nightmares)

there seems to be recognition on the sexual favours btw, last night newsnight political pen segment, the ex cbi man digby suggested taxes on sex workers as a serious way to pay the deficit, he used the word billions (in taxes), i can tell you i nearly over-dunked my bahlsen choco leibniz when i heard him say that

Edited November 25, 2009 by loginandtonic

[Injin]

property will trade for hyperinflated fiat? is that what you think is likely? how do we get there? this jump is not clear at all. you seem to strongly believe in bilderberg style nwo agenda to deliberately bring this about, i hope you are wrong. but i cannot say you are as i am just a simple joe who is a hostage to fortune + what dreams may come (or nightmares)

That's how the system works now.

Nothing will change, only the numbers will get larger and it will be a lot more obvious.

there seems to be recognition on the sexual favours btw, last night newsnight political pen segment, the ex cbi man digby suggested taxes on sex workers as a serious way to pay the deficit, he used the word billions (in taxes), i can tell you i nearly over-dunked my bahlsen choco leibniz when i heard him say that

Anything but admit they aren't wanted or needed. Anything but get a proper job providing value to people. Sigh.

[loginandtonic]

That's how the system works now.

Nothing will change, only the numbers will get larger and it will be a lot more obvious.

Anything but admit they aren't wanted or needed. Anything but get a proper job providing value to people. Sigh.

well i dont have the processing power to understand how the numbers are going to change so rapidly as to make the current prices remain acceptable. all i can assume is you mean the govt will keep rates low + qe to continue to hand credit to the uncreditworthy, to lend more than they should etc. thats the only way i can see hpi remaining. on any other basis, prices are overvalued 50%

[theworknomad]

Me thinks the OP should get himself a life, and probably a job, and stop being jealous.

Things are working, stop reading newspapers and get out there and enjoy life.

On a side note, was a property auction last night in Bristol, it was heaving! and many of the lots went way over reserve price, some went up by 50%. So the housing market in this part of the world is working!

[Lander]

Société Générale seems to think things are turning.... TO SH!T.. globally, and advises clients how to prepare for global collapse

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

[loginandtonic]

Me thinks the OP should get himself a life, and probably a job, and stop being jealous.

Things are working, stop reading newspapers and get out there and enjoy life.

On a side note, was a property auction last night in Bristol, it was heaving! and many of the lots went way over reserve price, some went up by 50%. So the housing market in this part of the world is working!

where are people getting the money?

[J-P]

I expect a massive downturn after poor trading figures over Xmas.

“TheCountOfNowhere” nailed it, absolutely brilliant

[loginandtonic]

I expect a massive downturn after poor trading figures over Xmas.

“TheCountOfNowhere” nailed it, absolutely brilliant

none of my ebay items sold, collectibles £15, designer trousers £10, rare cd for £2 inc p+p, rare book £6.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Me thinks the OP should get himself a life, and probably a job, and stop being jealous.

Things are working, stop reading newspapers and get out there and enjoy life.

On a side note, was a property auction last night in Bristol, it was heaving! and many of the lots went way over reserve price, some went up by 50%. So the housing market in this part of the world is working!

And still wage inflation is mostly negative, interesting.

[Democorruptcy]

Car scrappage isnt working. ( what a joke )

It must depend on why you think it was set up. I think it has worked. It's inflated car prices, even secondhand car prices have gone up. This means that the lobbying by the car industry was a success, like the banks they have got their hands on taxpayers money. Another group of too big to fails that can now charge what they want and if they don't sell they just stick their hand out asking for cash instead of lowering their prices.

[Confusion of VIs]

yourself, injin, daddybear + a few others keep saying prices set to stagnate not fall much further if at all.

i ask again: how will these properties sell at the current prices if wages do not rise dramatically or lax/liar loans or high x6+ multiples cannot be sustained? are you suggesting there is a massive wall of money able to buy for cash or with large deposits enough to sustain the market for several years + keep properties selling at what to any sober eyes looks like 50% over valuation?

Properties are selling at the current price, maybe only in 50% of the number reached at peak but they are selling. Lots of people who would like to move will have to stay put, either because they are in negative equity and cannot afford to crystalyse their loss or because (like me) they don't want to lose their 1% tracker mortgage - but is that really a problem, supply and demand remain in step prices stay roughly and over the next 10 years gradually become more affordable.

Of course like everyone else I am only guessing at how a system too complex for me to understand will behave but sounds more likely than most of the other possible outcomes being discussed.

[loginandtonic]

Properties are selling at the current price, maybe only in 50% of the number reached at peak but they are selling. Lots of people who would like to move will have to stay put, either because they are in negative equity and cannot afford to crystalyse their loss or because (like me) they don't want to lose their 1% tracker mortgage - but is that really a problem, supply and demand remain in step prices stay roughly and over the next 10 years gradually become more affordable.

Of course like everyone else I am only guessing at how a system too complex for me to understand will behave but sounds more likely than most of the other possible outcomes being discussed.

if i understand you correctly then what you submit is:

-IRs to stay ultra-low (ie sub 2%) for next year or three years

-most would-be distress sellers have no distress because they can remortgage at low rates and/or get Govt mortgage benefits

-unemployment unlikely to affect most sellers or Govt benefit will bail them if it does so no distress sale

-enough potential purchasers with cash, high paid jobs, large deposits, to sustain transactions through next few years at 50% of peak volume

-general wage inflation will make property more in line with sane multiple of 3 or 4 (although that was too high for many last time) as the subsequent 4 to 10 years pass thereafter

-the consumer/worker will not be significantly affected by tax rises, services cuts, they will have money to make loan repayments and if not will be bailed by the govt

-the taxpayers that remain in work will happily pay more tax for less services because prison is threatened, yet will still pay the prices sellers ask for goods, they will have no choice but to pay what's asked whether for a car, can of Heinz London Grill, a 3-bed bungalow etc

-the govt will just print any shortfall + those who lend to the UK wont mind or lower the UK's credit rating because the whole world is doing the same

-inflation will take hold because everyone gets what they want either from consumers or the govt's taxpayer handout or qe

got to say, sounds like a tightrope to economic implosion to me, have the pwers that be thought this one through i wonder

Edited November 25, 2009 by loginandtonic

[right_freds_dead]

its not a feeling that the tide has turned.

its more like the feeling that seeing a HUGE tsunami rolling in....

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Me thinks the OP should get himself a life, and probably a job, and stop being jealous.

Things are working, stop reading newspapers and get out there and enjoy life.

On a side note, was a property auction last night in Bristol, it was heaving! and many of the lots went way over reserve price, some went up by 50%. So the housing market in this part of the world is working!

I have a job.

I am not jealous.

I am very well off.

I have a great life.

I've been to India, go there, see poverty, you will be glad you live in the U.K. and you too will feel rich.

Give up being an estate agent and a tw*t. and go broaden your horizons and experiences elsewhere

Edited November 25, 2009 by TheCountOfNowhere

[loginandtonic]

is the word not envious, rather than jealous? why 2 words meaning the same i do not know

[Sour Mash]

property will trade for hyperinflated fiat? is that what you think is likely? how do we get there? this jump is not clear at all. you seem to strongly believe in bilderberg style nwo agenda to deliberately bring this about, i hope you are wrong. but i cannot say you are as i am just a simple joe who is a hostage to fortune + what dreams may come (or nightmares)

The government can force you to pay taxes/rates/fines in fiat currency so you need a source of it. Also you are going to need currency to service debt as interest rates shoot up.

So ultimately many will be forced to exchange their 'asset' (house) for fiat if they can't earn enough to service the mortgage on it and/or pay the massive amounts of tax that the government will be looking to soak the public for.

[ingermany]

I have worked in the public sector for 9 years. For the first time in my experience money is being treated as if it might be a finite resource..............ironic, coming at a time when the central bank is busy proving that it isn't.

People's contracts are not being renewed because there is no money to pay them, not because they are inefficient or not needed. Previously we just made a case for requiring more people and the money appeared to meet the requirement. Now we are shedding all staff on short contracts and the "lifers" are starting to think redundancy. Things are changing. Before people start celebrating the reductions in public spending, you need to realise that services will be cut as a result. Hospital waiting lists will return, casualty departments will close, roads will deteriorate, life will become difficult for everyone. There will be more strikes and more social disorder.

I agree that the tide has (just) started to turn.

[winkie]

I have worked in the public sector for 9 years. For the first time in my experience money is being treated as if it might be a finite resource..............ironic, coming at a time when the central bank is busy proving that it isn't.

People's contracts are not being renewed because there is no money to pay them, not because they are inefficient or not needed. Previously we just made a case for requiring more people and the money appeared to meet the requirement. Now we are shedding all staff on short contracts and the "lifers" are starting to think redundancy. Things are changing. Before people start celebrating the reductions in public spending, you need to realise that services will be cut as a result. Hospital waiting lists will return, casualty departments will close, roads will deteriorate, life will become difficult for everyone. There will be more strikes and more social disorder.

I agree that the tide has (just) started to turn.

How I see it we have expanded too quickly, living the good life on borrowed money...growth and prosperity has to be a gradual thing built up over time, will just have to step back to go forward...se la vie.

[pete.hpc]

Before people start celebrating the reductions in public spending, you need to realise that services will be cut as a result. Hospital waiting lists will return, casualty departments will close, roads will deteriorate, life will become difficult for everyone. There will be more strikes and more social disorder.

Well, you would say that

[davidcameron]

I have worked in the public sector for 9 years. For the first time in my experience money is being treated as if it might be a finite resource..............ironic, coming at a time when the central bank is busy proving that it isn't.

People's contracts are not being renewed because there is no money to pay them, not because they are inefficient or not needed. Previously we just made a case for requiring more people and the money appeared to meet the requirement. Now we are shedding all staff on short contracts and the "lifers" are starting to think redundancy. Things are changing. Before people start celebrating the reductions in public spending, you need to realise that services will be cut as a result. Hospital waiting lists will return, casualty departments will close, roads will deteriorate, life will become difficult for everyone. There will be more strikes and more social disorder.

I agree that the tide has (just) started to turn.

Arrrrrgggghhhh!!!!!!!!

[dredwerker]

From what I've read on the news lately and from conversation with friends and colleagues ( awaiting their P45 ), I do get the distinct feeling that sentiment is taking a turn for the better (i.e. towards reality, or as the BBC would say downwards ( read as upwards ) ) .

I'd say the word is out, that is, we are fec'd. The bad news just keeps on coming despite the BBC broadcasting the complete opposite. It's still there, bad news, it's everywhere. A couple of my friends have startd doubting the media ( unprompted by me ). Shops are shutting. Everyone is skint. Christmas is coming. No credit. Job losses a plenty. Tiny Tim aint getting any goose this year

P.S. low (non-existent) interest rates arent working...they are just keeping the stupid and profligate in houses whilst the people who have funded this scam are robbed blind. That scenario wont work long term. The savers are the clever ones, they know they are being robbed blind. They will vote this government out. They will take their money else where. The savers will not...save you

I dont agree completely. I would like to agree but I am not seeing it. I am in a shite way but I know of houses being sold, a colleague of mine is buying a house, several colleagues of my other halfs are buying houses and its all come about in the last 2-3 months.

IMHO there is a definite lift coming from somewhere - its not making it to me though.

The shops are indeed being boarded up and work is hard to come by but some people, when it comes to housing are of the opinion that they best get in quick.