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Who Knows

Don't Count Yer Chickens.....

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Well I am a bear I STR'd and will continue to rent as I can see no logic to buying at the moment - its cheaper to rent and properties where I live are around 7 times salary. That said I dont think that we will have a HPC as soon, nor with the magnitude that many on this site are expecting.

In the last month I have seen 5 properties on my street sold (yep that means sold as in new occupents move in not just a sign outside). 5 colleagues have bought property (FTB's) and 2 friends have sold 400K plus homes (in order to rent fyi and no I didn't offer my views).

It's not over yet, though in every case - buyers and sellers have mostly negotiated up to 20K off the price and the market has been slow.

Just some background info but I believe there is still some life in the old dog yet and think unless inflation and job losses really starts to rocket 50% falls are just a fantasy. IMHO at the moment it is more likely that sales of 3 bed family homes will be slow but steady with sellers having to price realistically and be open to offers.

2 bed new builds and flats will be really competitive and slow to sell with 20K+ drops. (There are still plenty out there that know they could rent them cheaper but have the British desire to own at all costs)

Just a few thoughts, flame away

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Not a flame, just an observation.

I was thinking about the last crash the other day. It suddenly occured to me that during that time people didn't stop buying and selling houses. Whenever I think of a crash I think about it in terms of a total abscence of sales/purchases, but it just isn't like that.

You have presented anecdotal evidence that sales are still taking place. However, you also state that discounts were had, and things took longer than they would have a year ago. Transaction volumes are down, mortgage approvals are down etc. That's all I need to know.

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It's not over yet, though in every case - buyers and sellers have mostly negotiated up to 20K off the price and the market has been slow.

Excellent. Sales at reduced prices - just what Land Registry needs to register -ve y-on-y figures. Then the BTLers will run and the cliff will be well and truly fallen over.

The HPC is well on its way. Keep the faith.

rollin' rollin' rollin'

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Excellent.  Sales at reduced prices - just what Land Registry  needs to register -ve y-on-y figures.  Then the BTLers will run and the cliff will be well and truly fallen over.

The HPC is well on its way.  Keep the faith.

rollin' rollin' rollin'

Not quite so clear cut unfortunately - good news for the flats and new builds without a doubt, in one case the seller had to take a 5K drop on last year. However when it comes to the family homes they were put on at 425K and 415K and sold for 395K and 400K - looks like a big drop and a bargain for the buyer right? Nope - have checked nethousprices and in both cases they have set a precident for the highest a house has sold for on their street.

Edited by Who Knows

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Fairly reasoned posting there Who Knows.

But someone has to ask, in these circumstances, is it wise to continue being an STR?

And what area are you talking about anyway?

2 AREAS - family homes in teddington/twickers areas

rest in Bristol

is it wise to be a STR yep my house that I rent would cost 220K + yet my rent is £670 a month. Also the wages here are way out of line to the costs of houses and the schools are dire. I am reasnably well paid but if I lost my job the chance of getting the wame wage is very slim. To buy at the peak under these circumstances would be foolhardy. Prices are not going up, neither is rent (Ihave another 12 months agreed with no rise).

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But someone has to ask, in these circumstances, is it wise to continue being an STR?

It still makes sense for me, renting a place which would be twice as much if I had a mortgage on it. The benefit of renting a place the landlord obviosuly purchased at a time when house prices were low, he gets more than enough to cover the mortgage and i get to rent it at half the price it would cost me a month to buy.

Add into that the extra money I'm saving having moved closer to work, and having paid of all of my debts (only small amount really).

So yes STR is definately still a great idea for me.

I don't think there is much doubt we are heading for 0 or negative growth this year in the housing market, so even if I make 1p (it's a whole lot more than that) interest this year on my STR fund I'm better off than I would have been if I were still a home owner.

I've said it before an I'll say it again, there are far too many generalisations on this fourm, renting is not better than buying, buying is not better than renting, it's all about when your renting and buying.

My financial situation is much better than it was when I was a home owner, mostly due to decisions I made after reading a book you recommended a year ago TTRTR.

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2 AREAS - family homes in teddington/twickers areas

rest in Bristol

is it wise to be a STR yep my house that I rent would cost 220K + yet my rent is £670 a month. Also the wages here are way out of line to the costs of houses and the schools are dire. I am reasnably well paid but if I lost my job the chance of getting the wame wage is very slim. To buy at the peak under these circumstances would be foolhardy. Prices are not going up, neither is rent (Ihave another 12 months agreed with no rise).

I live in Teddington and am in the same position. I can afford to buy a suitable home for my needs but not at those loopy prices. I am a potential ftb and there is no way i want to buy a two bed flat in broom road for £300K + - i am simply not mental. This is not because I cannot, simply refuse to do so. There are many more of my friends who are all in a position to buy in Teddington that just arent buying for the same reasons. The prices are/will coming/come down.

Edited by pescouk

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Was that Making Money Made Simple?

Indeed it was.

There certainly wasn't advice in it to prompt people to STR but the central message I took from it (and other books I was reading at the time) was clear your debts and save/invest as much as you could afford, the quickest way to do that for me was to sell my house and downsize, that evolved into STR due to moving closer to my wife and consequently my own work place.

For me the figures more than stack up at the moment.

I was never in that much debt, but it was getting worse simply because I was in debt (if that makes sense) and it was getting worse each month rather than better.

The other thing with here is you seem to have to be a bear or a bull there is no middle ground. I'll be a bear until the point it becomes sensible to become bullish. I don't believe the two are mutually exclusive.

Sorry seems I've hijacked the thread somewhat. So to redress the balance....

The more time goes on the less I think we will see big falls (-50%) and the longer I think it will take to play out. But I still expect decent enough falls to make my STR decision pay for itself simply on the equity I released, the extra amount I have been able to save as a result would make an even better decision.

The thing I always say to myself is just look at where we were a year ago, a totally different picture to today.

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1 or 2 more years on from adjusting your financial commitments, you never know, you might decide landlording is for you!! :)

And on the subject of bulls & bears. You may recall that I used to think I was neutral, but this forum made me realise the depth of sentiment opposing mine, so I now realise I am very bullish on property.

Can't help it really.

Well done on buying the book, I hope you felt it was worthwhile & I guess that's what you're saying here.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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