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How To Make Money By Shorting Property


Guest Daddy Bear

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I have been watching from the sidelines for the past few months and I do believe the time is nigh! This is my first post.

Regards

Daddy bear

How can you make a first post 4 times?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=13026&hl=

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...wtopic=9122&hl=

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=13028&hl=

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=11346&hl=

There's something dodgy about you. I don't know what it is, but you smell of scam.

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Guest Daddy Bear

I posted 4 times in different forums to see if I could get a response - some useful info but to be honest in all the different locations I have learnt nothing. No real valuable contributions just replies like - troll, dodgy,...wasting my time...etc...

Don't reply then.

However there must be loads of people who have viewed these posts and are interested in shorting the market on the way down...and I hope i have been some help.

Two weeks ago I knew nothing about spread betting or shorting and have had to learn from scratch - Im just trying to pass on what i've learnt.

P{lease do not continue this thread if you have nothing useful to say about spread betting or shorting the market.

Nuff said

DB

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All I can say is that you can be "right" but still lose a shed load of money.

I posted on the *********************.com site about my experiences shorting Countrywide. I'm convinced this company is ripe for a collapse in price but while the market is still in bull mode the price continues to rise. Eventually I think I'll be proved right but in the meantime I have to sit and suffer (notwithstanding Friday's fall).

In short, the worst that can happen, is the worst that can happen and you have to be prepared for that :(

Thanks for that have a good holiday!

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I posted 4 times in different forums to see if I could get a response - some useful info but to be honest in all the different locations I have learnt nothing. No real valuable contributions just replies like - troll, dodgy,...wasting my time...etc...

Don't reply then.

However there must be loads of people who have viewed these posts and are interested in shorting the market on the way down...and I hope i have been some help.

Two weeks ago I knew nothing about spread betting or shorting and have had to learn from scratch - Im just trying to pass on what i've learnt.

P{lease do not continue this thread if you have nothing useful to say about spread betting or shorting the market.

Nuff said

DB

I highly recommend Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein.

The basic problem with shorting in a rising market or near the top is there is a lot of new profits looking for a home. And it seems to bargain hunt in irrational places. Also the rational but early short sellers all try the same thing at the same time with high leverage. You get short covering blow ups until everyone gives up short selling. Of course a profit downgrade could come any time and the stock plummets but until that announcement the position is likely to get blown up. So yes it is quite tricky. Historically its better to ignore the clever short and wait for the entire market to show weakness.

From Stan Weinstein's book:

Don't ever short a stock that is above its rising 30-week MA.

Don't sell short a stock because its PE is too high.

Don't sell short because the stock has run up too much.

Don't sell short a sucker stock that everyone else agrees must crash.

Don't sell short a stock that trades thinly.

Don't sell short a stock in a strong group.

Don't sell short without protecting yourself with a buy-stop order.

Edited by Lurker at the pleasuredome
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Spiv

Are you stop/lossing and realising your loss. Or are you sitting tight on a paper loss? Whern does your term run out? Can you extend this?

Will you hold out to MAR 06 before you close the deal? What stop loss % do you run. Iwas told i was a muppet for running a 30% stop loss - but any lower does not one get locked out to easily?

Your opions will be much appreciated - i'v only just opened up a spread betting account.

Also who is best to trade with?

and Why?

I'm staying out until after the MPC deciscion. Would it be a good idea to go in 24hrs before assuming a 0.25% drop is already factored in?  The Markets been in Bull mode for 5 years give or take....run with the bulls and run with the bears....We all know the bulls are still running and the bears they be a hibernating....  but something is a stirring.

What other good news can the market/individual companies get in the next 6 months?

Im starting to think it may be better to get in a little bit late then too early - unless of course these shares drop like stones - I want a long slow stagnating fall. (Sept)

One thing thats always worried me about spreadbetting...if you go long the upside side is infinite..shares can keep on rising, however if they fall you can only loose so much the downside is finite.

if you go short you could loose infinitely (shares keep rising) but you only can gain a certain amount even if the company goes into admin.... hmmmm

Is there a plus/ advantage to going short.

And another thing does anyone else know of an investment where you can put 5K down and get a return of 100K. E.g. put 5K down on a 100K flat and it doubles in price to 200k, in 3-4 yrears Such high leverage gives you a 2000% return. Compare this to a bank deposit of 35-40% in 4-5years (compound@ 5% approx)

If that is sustainable I'll eat my house!!

The only other time i have seen that in my short life is with the dot coms....

Basic common sense says that you must be able to get a 2000% return on the yang side to that yin. (The Crash)  i.e does shorting the market in a spread bet offer that yang?

somethings got to give somewhere.

Why does Countrywide seem to be everyones favourit short?

What else is worth a sniff??

Daddy Bear

DB,

I'm strictly an amateur so please don't lend too much weight to my views.

With CWD I'm sitting tight on my position, but if it gets much worse I'll have to take the hit and close out. I'm playing with relatively small amounts so it won't affect me too much whatever happens. For that reason I don't employ a pre determined stop loss (you can probably see why I don't do this full time !!)

I trade through my brother's account and I don't even know who that's with so I can't really comment on the best company.

As far as CWD are concerned I just think that it's all coming to a head and I'm prepared to take a loss if I've mistimed.

Sorry I can't be of any more help.

spiv.

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if you want people to discuss CWD with you can take a look on the free bulletin boards over on www.advfn.com. Long standing thread there with loads of CWD shorters that have been following the stock for months / years. Me included. Don't think many have made money on it yet as it invariably rises after any fall. Don't ask why.

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Guest Daddy Bear
There is an interesting (US centric) article about shorting housing stock here http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/pomste...h/10237407.html

It uses a calendar spread strategy - which apparently can be used to bet on a sow decline.

Daddy bear here

Just back from holiday.....

Have a look at the share price history since July 31st of all the companies listed in the original article of this thread .. (apart from Paragon, Couyntrywide) it may be the start of something... They have all taken a hell of a beating in the last 2 weeks since the original thread..

Why does Paragon and Countrywide seem so resilient to the big bad bear??

Any views?

DB

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Sorry about the accuracy / detail of this but................How to short your own home.

Just saw an ad on TV, I think the company was called national housebuyers or something. They will buy your house from you, you pick the time you move out....Hey presto- you can short your own home.

Seems like they are going long and have got it wrong.

Hows about this: give me market price for my gaffe now and I'll buy it back in five years at market value!!!

Anyone with a better memory / attention span than my goodself seen this??? Or was I dreaming????

I wondered what Nick Leeson was up to nowdays.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest Daddy Bear
I'm sorry, i'm totally not convinced with daddy bear. You're here to make people go short on spread betting and con people out of their money.

Countrywide (largest estate agency in UK) has a share price of 349p today - fallen from it's high of 375p approx.

It's a bumpy ride but is there any reason why an estate agency price would go up long term in these market conditions (I'm basing this on a downturn of 30% in UK property market) - even including potential revenue from sellers pack and floatation of right move?

If one bets on a spread betting site you do not pay 40% capital gains tax (on earnings above yearly limit of £8k approx). More so it's quick and convenient and very easy to short the market on the way down, put in stop losses and sell/buy orders.

Can anyone tell me why it would be better to use a conventional broker?

Anyway i could not give a monkeys whether you invest or not I am interested in people who have better trading techniques/ investment strategies and are focussing on other shares I have not thought of.

Please tell me how i could con people out of money by telling them to go short on CWD. Imagine if 1000 people took me up on that idea and invested £1000 each on the same day (likely eh?) thats 1 million pound - on a 750 million pound company that's not going to translate into much SP movement - especially considering 75% of this stock is owned by institutions.

Forget the long winded story at the beginning of this thread and focus on the question?

What shares does one short to make money on the property downturn?

What are the best tactics to use?

When does one short?

How long should one's contracts be?

What stop losses should people lay?

p.s If someone had explained shorting the market and the benefits of a spreadbetting firm over a conventional broker when the NAS hit 5000 pts I would be a very rich man. Consider £50 per point back then!! And it was so Inevitable - a bit like the housing crash now.....

5000-1600 = 3400 x 50 = 170K!!

Daddy Bear

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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