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Tmf Turning Bullish?

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The first time I came across a group of bears was on the TMF Property Markets and Trends board. Here where people who shared my apprehensiveness on the property market, who convinced me to keep renting (we sold in London in 2003 for reasons unconnected with property prices) and introduced me to the bad boys of HPC.

Suddenly they all seem to be bullish. I take far less notice of the PMT boards than I used to - but I do monitor the most recced posts on the "Best of" section. About six months ago a lot of bulls - qmail, Mike4 and even freddiforcaste (an economic forecaster so effective that he couldn't foresee the amount of characters in his internet handle) gave up and turned bearish.

Now the bulls are in full storm. Bearsknightmare - who obviously posts here although I don't know which one of our tame bulls - seems to be one of the most recced people on the board and King of Nowhere who seemed to me a fairly solid bear now seems to have turned very bullish in the short term, there will be an interest rate rise and it will drive the market up in August. The bullish arguments that are recced don't seem to be very strong - but perhaps I'm missing some of the context.

I pay very little attention to TMF these days so to those who do pay more attention is the bullishness as widespread as I'm painting it and what are the arguments that these bulls are using?

I'd be interested to know but ploughing through PMT these days is an increasing chore - I suppose I'm spoiled over here.

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I pay very little attention to TMF these days so to those who do pay more attention is the bullishness as widespread as I'm painting it and what are the arguments that these bulls are using?

I think that lower mortgage payments from prospective interest rate falls is one of the major arguments put forward by bulls at the moment.

Another is that house price indices have been showing prices stagnating for a long time now, and some feel this will continue without precipitous falls.

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These bulls on the motley board are just people who can't see past next week. They are going in one direction then another as the wind blows. Nobody makes money chasing a market. The problem with these people is the posibilty of rate cuts, which may themselves delay the crash by 12 months or so.

The truth is plainly obvious for everyone to see, the economy is grossly unbalanced and too reliant on consumer spending which itself is reliant on HPI. Now the economy needs re-balancing, but that hurts a bit. Brown is afraid of administering some pain but he should do it now as if he leaves it any longer he may have left it too late leaving the UK in a depression.

If you want confirmation on the above look no further than the Treasury redefining the economic cycle last week. Up until I saw Brown do this last week I still had a lingering doubt as to my bearishness on the UK economy, Brown's fudging completely removed that and confirmed that he has just been a very fortunate chancellor and has not removed boom and bust. The USA is squeezing the capacity for Brown and Co to take credit for great fiscal management. The truth will be out very soon.

Edited by delite1

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Another bull argument put forward on TMF is the forthcoming change in pension rules allowing SIPPS to invest in residential property. There is a view that there is a wall of money ready to be spent after 'A' Day.

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"..... its always darkest before the dawn."

Never really bought into this expression. By my figuring, it's gotta be darkest exactly midway between dusk & dawn...ie the middle of the night?

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Theres a saying that when the last bear turns bull then the crash is imminent.

Or to put it another way : its always darkest before the dawn.  smilewinkgrin.gif

Another one is when people not normally associated with a market become overly involved.

An aspiring topless model wants to be a property developer? Sure sign of top... (This link is to a "clean" page showing face only so should be OK with everyone I hope, but please do read the URL and note what site it links to...). http://www.page3.com/rookie/index3.html

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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